{"id":2353643,"date":"2024-10-11T10:05:01","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T14:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/zogby-cautions-poll-watchers-we-are-not-god-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-10-11T10:06:48","modified_gmt":"2024-10-11T14:06:48","slug":"zogby-cautions-poll-watchers-we-are-not-god-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/zogby-cautions-poll-watchers-we-are-not-god-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Zogby cautions poll watchers: \u2018We are not God\u2019 &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fzogby-cautions-poll-watchers-we-are-not-god-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2353643&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article\u2062 discusses the \u200ccurrent polling dynamics between \u200cVice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as \u200cthey gear up for the upcoming election. Pollsters and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/iran-agrees-to-extend-un-nuclear-checks-for-3-months\/\" title=\"Iran agrees to extend UN nuclear checks for 3 months\">political analysts<\/a> are observing trends that indicate a shift in momentum, \u2062with some suggesting that Trump \u2063may be \u200dregaining an edge, particularly in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/update-corrupted-software-that-stole-6000-votes-from-trump-in-michigan-county-shut-down-for-two-hours-in-red-counties-in-georgia-on-election-day\/\" title=\"Update: Corrupted Software that Stole 6,000 Votes From Trump in Michigan County -- Shut Down for TWO HOURS in Red Counties in Georgia on Election Day\">battleground states<\/a>.\u2064 Simon Rosenberg,\u2063 a Democratic organizer,\u2063 asserts that Harris is currently winning the election, while\u2064 others, like pollster Scott\u200b Rasmussen,\u2063 note a favorable shift\u2063 towards Trump. Mark\u200c Halperin, a media \u2063pundit, claims that many Republicans believe the race is effectively over, anticipating \u200dTrump&#8217;s strong performance in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gop-democrats-looking-at-crowded-primaries-in-key-states\/\" title=\"GOP, Democrats Looking at Crowded Primaries in Key States\">critical states<\/a>. \u2063However, John Zogby, a seasoned pollster, cautions against premature predictions, emphasizing the need for pollsters to avoid overstepping by claiming certainty about outcomes. He advocates for a more informed approach to interpreting polling\u200d data and understanding its nuances. the article highlights\u200b the unpredictability of the election\u200c landscape and the importance of\u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/terrorism-homicide-prosecutors-brought-in-to-try-capitol-riot-defendants-for-crimes-like-trespassing\/\" title=\"Terrorism, Homicide Prosecutors Brought In To Try Capitol Riot Defendants For Crimes Like Trespassing\">careful analysis<\/a> of\u2062 polling trends.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Zogby cautions poll watchers: &lsquo;We are not God&rsquo;<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1823326\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Vice President Kamala Harris and former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" title>Donald Trump<\/a> have been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polling\/\" title>so close<\/a> for so long that any change in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/3184353\/trump-maintains-2-point-lead-fifth-week\/\" title>polling vibe<\/a> has pundits and pollsters feeling trigger-happy.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>On the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" title>Harris side<\/a>, some have picked up on her movement on issues that Trump has dominated in the race, such as inflation and who is better suited to tame it. &ldquo;Today we are winning the election,&rdquo; Democratic organizer Simon Rosenberg said.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-full\"><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>On the Trump side, many sense a polling turn in his favor, especially in the battleground states. &ldquo;There has definitely been a vibe shift in Trump&rsquo;s direction,&rdquo; pollster Scott Rasmussen said.<\/p>\n<p>Even in the middle, some sense that a Trump move is happening. Take media pundit Mark Halperin. &ldquo;There are not an insignificant number of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/Republicans\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Republicans<\/a> who say the race is effectively over,&rdquo; he said, adding, &ldquo;Trump is going to lock up the Sunbelt states, probably all four, but at least three. And then he&rsquo;s going to win Pennsylvania, and that checkmates her. They may be wrong, but there&rsquo;s a not insignificant number of them who are quite confident of that. And the data they&rsquo;ve seen on the absentees and the early votes and the voter registration makes them more confident.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Former Secretary of State <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/Hillary-Clinton\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Hillary Clinton<\/a>&rsquo;s former pollster Mark Penn said, &ldquo;No question Mark Halperin analysis is sensible. Polls coming in show Harris peaked and interviews not helping. Swing states trending away from Harris.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Democratic pollster John Zogby agreed. He said on his latest <a href=\"https:\/\/johnzogbystrategies.com\/the-zogby-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>podcast,<\/a> &ldquo;Generally speaking, Trump is back in the lead. Well, a 1-point lead or a 2-point lead. The battleground states Trump is now dominant.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>But as a pollster who has gone too far out on a limb before, he has a message to those ready to call the race. &ldquo;We pollsters need to get the word &lsquo;predict&rsquo; out of our minds and vocabularies,&rdquo; he told <em>Secrets<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>He&rsquo;s even more blunt in his new book on polls. &ldquo;We pollsters as a profession are guilty of pretending to be God,&rdquo; he wrote in his newly-released <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Beyond-Horse-Race-Polls-Should\/dp\/1538197146\" title><em>Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We are not God,&rdquo; Zogby said.<\/p>\n<p>He is now urging poll consumers to educate themselves about polling. For example, instead of looking at the daily or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/enough-stimulus-already-weekly-jobless-claims-plunge-to-lowest-level-since-1969\/\" title=\"Enough Stimulus Already? Weekly Jobless Claims Plunge to Lowest Level Since 1969\">weekly ups<\/a> and downs, look at trend lines to get a sense of movement. And pick a pollster to follow.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">SEE THE LATEST POLITICAL NEWS AND BUZZ FROM WASHINGTON SECRETS<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The best way to do it is by pollster, not mixing and matching multiple pollsters. In other words, if Pollster A has Trump leading by 2 points on Tuesday, then Pollster B has him up by 4 on Thursday, then don&rsquo;t conclude he has jumped 2 points. Two different pollsters, two different moments, two different turnout models,&rdquo; said Zogby, who is part of the <em>Secrets<\/em> team that pens the weekly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/3178354\/white-house-report-card-katrina-moment-for-biden-harris-overshadow-wins\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>White House Report Card<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Let&rsquo;s have realistic expectations for what the polls are telling us and what they can and cannot tell us. This race is at equilibrium right now and is likely to be for a while. Perhaps it will break big one way or the other down the road, but that simply has not happened yet. We will all be informed by the polls, but don&rsquo;t expect any predictions,&rdquo; added Zogby, a partner at <a href=\"https:\/\/johnzogbystrategies.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>John Zogby Strategies<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1823326\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1823326\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zogby warns poll watchers: &#8216;We are not God&#8217; as Harris and Trump remain closely matched in polls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2647,"featured_media":2353644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Trump-Harris_Debate_uu8jj1.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[32644,39967,32076,32096],"class_list":["post-2353643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-election-integrity","tag-poll-watchers","tag-washington-examiner","tag-zogby"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Trump-Harris_Debate_uu8jj1.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2353643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2647"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2353643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2353643\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2353644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2353643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2353643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2353643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}