{"id":2340661,"date":"2024-09-13T10:59:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-13T14:59:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-polls-might-not-show-a-trump-surge-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-09-13T11:05:23","modified_gmt":"2024-09-13T15:05:23","slug":"why-polls-might-not-show-a-trump-surge-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-polls-might-not-show-a-trump-surge-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Why polls might not show a \u2018Trump surge\u2019 &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwhy-polls-might-not-show-a-trump-surge-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2340661&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article titled &#8220;Why polls might not\u2062 show a \u2018Trump surge\u2019&#8221; discusses the \u200dpotential discrepancies in polling\u200c data\u200c regarding the race between former President Donald \u2062Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite national\u2064 polls indicating\u2063 a close \u200dcontest, the author argues that these surveys should be taken cautiously for\u200d several reasons.<\/p>\n<p>Firstly,\u2063 historical patterns suggest that\u2064 polls can \u2064misrepresent the actual electoral landscape. The article recalls the unexpected victories Trump had in 2016 and 2020, where polls failed to predict his wins \u2062in key battleground states.<\/p>\n<p>Secondly, the emergence of new voters is highlighted as a complicating factor. Pollsters cannot accurately gauge how many first-time \u2062voters will participate and their voting preferences. The Trump campaign is reportedly focusing on attracting\u200b young, first-time voters, who may lean more toward Trump than other demographics.<\/p>\n<p>Lastly, with the \u2063election just 52 days away, the uncertainty surrounding polling predictions raises questions about the true \u2064state of the race and the likelihood of a &#8220;Trump surge.&#8221; The article emphasizes the need for caution when interpreting current polling data as\u200b a definitive reflection \u200bof the election outcome.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Why polls might not show a &lsquo;Trump surge&rsquo;<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1759523\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>The race between former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a> and Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Kamala Harris\">Kamala Harris<\/a> might not be as tight as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polls\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>polls<\/a> indicate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/us\/elections\/polls-president.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><em>New York Times<\/em><\/a>  and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><em>RealClearPolitics<\/em><\/a>  averages of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-mocks-gop-challengers-in-crowded-field-dont-know-why-people-are-doing-it\/\" title=\"Trump ridicules GOP rivals in crowded race: &#039;No idea why they&#039;re running.&#039;\">national polling show<\/a> the two presidential candidates in a dead heat. In the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/politics\/elections\/trump-harris-poll-august-election-2024-e6fa024e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>survey<\/a> from the <em>Wall Street Journal, <\/em>they appear to be running neck-to-neck.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But do polls reflect the true state of the race? Here are three reasons why polling now should be taken with a grain of salt.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">History repeats<\/h2>\n<p>Polls have led political pundits astray in the past, particularly around the odds of Trump winning the presidency. In 2016, Trump defied expectations (and polling data) when he clinched the White House in a shocking victory against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.<\/p>\n<p>At the time, polls in battleground states prior to Election Day proved to be wrong. Clinton&rsquo;s large lead in Wisconsin turned into a striking loss after Trump ended up flipping the state red for the first time since the Reagan era. Likewise, Clinton&rsquo;s leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania also <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/polling-error-in-2016-2020-look-out-for-wisconsin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>turned<\/a> into surprise Trump victories that year.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Former President Donald Trump pumps his fists as he speaks during a campaign event at the Linda Ronstadt Music Hall on Sept. 12, 2024, in Tucson, Arizona. (AP Photo\/Alex Brandon)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Four years later, polling once again failed to predict Trump&rsquo;s performance in critical swing states. Though they gave President Joe Biden a wide lead before November 2020, multiple battleground states ended up being decided by razor-thin margins.&nbsp;In North Carolina, Biden&rsquo;s lead turned into a loss altogether in the battleground state.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New voters<\/h2>\n<p>While pollsters can discern based on historical data which way certain demographic groups are likely to vote, it&rsquo;s impossible for them to predict the number of voters from each bracket who will cast ballots.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Trump is winning men who have not voted. Most pollsters are adjusting,&rdquo; Celinda Lake, one of the leading pollsters for President Joe Biden&rsquo;s 2020 campaign, <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/4877517-democratic-fears-trump-surge\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>told<\/a> the <em>Hill<\/em>. &ldquo;I think we still have to worry about a Trump surge.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The Trump campaign is targeting young men who may be voting for the first time and appear to be <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/dellavolpe\/status\/1833263714725990729\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>trending more toward the right<\/a> than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-trump-accepted-an-ai-generated-endorsement-from-taylor-swift-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Why Trump accepted an AI-generated endorsement from Taylor Swift - Washington Examiner\">young female voters<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The youngest members<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>of that group were just 10 years old when Trump was elected president and see this chaotic political era as normal. They were hardest hit by COVID and felt ignored by the establishment,&rdquo; John Della Volpe, the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics&rsquo;s director of polling, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/09\/13\/trump-harris-campaign-young-voters?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&amp;stream=top\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>told<\/a> <em>Axios <\/em>as he reflected on males between the ages of 18 and 24.<\/p>\n<p>In recent days, Trump has sat down with multiple young influencers, including several young men who boast millions of followers on social media. <\/p>\n<p>The former president&rsquo;s conversation last month with Generation Z influencer Theo Von has&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TheoVon\/status\/1826348914158829890\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reached<\/a> 42 million views on X. Trump&rsquo;s August livestream with Gen Z influencer Adin Ross, who has millions of followers, hit 580,000 live viewers at its peak. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@realDonaldTrump<\/a> | This Past Weekend #526 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zy6pfStBjJ\">pic.twitter.com\/zy6pfStBjJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Theo Von (@TheoVon) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheoVon\/status\/1826348914158829890?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 21, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script> <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fifty-two days until Election Day<\/h2>\n<p>There remains a two-month stretch leading up to Election Day for both candidates to pitch their message to the electorate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Depending on how many voters end up backing her record, the 52 days could pose an opportunity or a threat to Harris. She remains a relatively unknown entity as many <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/terry-mcauliffe-fundraises-for-self-described-democratic-socialist\/\" title=\"Terry McAuliffe Fundraises For Self-Described Democratic Socialist\">voters remain undecided<\/a>. Roughly 4 out of every 10 voters in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin don&rsquo;t know what Harris stands for.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, more debates between the Harris and Trump camps could always change the game. A vice presidential debate is coming up next month between Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Though Trump has declined to face off against Harris a second time, her campaign continues to hold out hope that another debate could happen.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>With as many twists and turns as the 2024 election cycle has seen, it&rsquo;s impossible for pollsters to predict what could change in the presidential race in the next 52 days. Biden&rsquo;s disastrous debate with Trump and subsequent campaign exit, Harris&rsquo;s swift ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.&rsquo;s alliance with Trump are just a few matters pollsters didn&rsquo;t factor into their predictions just a few short months ago.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1759523\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1759523\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>**Why Polls May Not Indicate a &#8216;Trump Surge&#8217;**<\/p>\n<p>The competition between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris may not be as close as current polls suggest. According to averages from The New York Times and RealClearPolitics, the two candidates appear to be in a virtual tie. A recent Wall Street Journal poll also shows them running closely together. However, there are several reasons to approach these polling results with skepticism.<\/p>\n<p>**Historical Context**<\/p>\n<p>Polls have misled analysts in the past, particularly regarding Trump&#8217;s chances of winning the presidency. In 2016, he surprised many by defeating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton despite polling data suggesting otherwise. Prior to Election Day, polls indicated Clinton had a significant lead in battleground states like Wisconsin, which ultimately flipped for Trump\u2014a state that hadn&#8217;t voted Republican since Reagan&#8217;s era. Similar unexpected victories occurred for Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n<p>In 2020, polling once again failed to accurately predict Trump&#8217;s performance in key swing states where Biden was projected to have a comfortable lead; however, many were decided by very narrow margins.<\/p>\n<p>**Emerging Voter Demographics**<\/p>\n<p>While pollsters can analyze historical voting patterns among different demographic groups, they struggle to forecast how many individuals from each group will actually vote. Celinda Lake, a prominent pollster for Biden&#8217;s 2020 campaign, noted that &#8220;Trump is winning men who have not voted,&#8221; indicating potential shifts among first-time voters\u2014particularly young men leaning more conservative than their female counterparts.<\/p>\n<p>Many young males today were only children when Trump first took office and view the current political climate as normal; they felt particularly impacted by COVID-19 and overlooked by traditional political establishments. Recently, Trump has engaged with various young influencers on social media platforms\u2014his discussions with figures like Theo Von reached millions of views.<\/p>\n<p>**Time Until Election Day**<\/p>\n<p>With just over two months remaining until Election Day, both candidates still have time to communicate their messages effectively. This period could either benefit or challenge Harris since she remains relatively unknown; around 40% of voters in critical swing states are still undecided about her positions.<\/p>\n<p>Upcoming debates could significantly influence voter perceptions as well\u2014though Trump has opted out of another debate against Harris for now, her campaign is hopeful for future opportunities that might arise amidst this unpredictable election cycle filled with unforeseen developments such as Biden\u2019s previous debate struggles or Robert F. Kennedy Jr.&#8217;s alliance with Trump\u2014all factors that weren&#8217;t accounted for just months ago<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3142,"featured_media":2340662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/T.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[34059,33017,15638,3634,32076],"class_list":["post-2340661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-election-2024","tag-political-analysis","tag-polls","tag-trump","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/T.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3142"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2340661"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340661\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2340662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2340661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2340661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2340661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}