{"id":2340359,"date":"2024-09-12T17:51:01","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T21:51:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/unexpected-bellwether-polish-americans-tend-to-predict-presidential-election-outcome-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-09-12T17:53:53","modified_gmt":"2024-09-12T21:53:53","slug":"unexpected-bellwether-polish-americans-tend-to-predict-presidential-election-outcome-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/unexpected-bellwether-polish-americans-tend-to-predict-presidential-election-outcome-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Unexpected bellwether? Polish Americans tend to predict presidential election outcome &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Funexpected-bellwether-polish-americans-tend-to-predict-presidential-election-outcome-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2340359&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses\u200c the significant role of the Polish American community as a predictive bellwether \u200din U.S. presidential elections. Since \u20621916, \u2064Polish\u2063 Americans have\u200d voted for the eventual presidential winner in all but three elections,\u2062 boasting \u2063an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/israel-war-us-to-send-its-two-iron-dome-units-to-israel\/\" title=\"US to deploy two Iron Dome units to Israel for war support.\">impressive success rate<\/a> of 89%. With\u2064 a\u2062 population of \u200capproximately 8 to 10 million, Polish Americans represent a considerable segment \u200dof the electorate, particularly in swing states\u200d like Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n<p>The community&#8217;s\u200b voting patterns\u200c are highly dynamic, often shifting by \u200clarge\u200b margins from one\u200d election to the\u2064 next, influenced strongly \u2063by \u200ccandidates&#8217; stances on\u2062 Poland and its interests. For example, Polish Americans largely supported Republican Donald Trump in 2016 but shifted\u2063 their allegiance to Democrat\u200c Joe Biden in 2020, partly due \u200bto Biden&#8217;s Polish heritage and Catholic\u2062 background.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, Polish\u2064 Americans \u2063have played\u2064 a vital role in U.S. \u200bpolitics since the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/california-introduces-bill-to-decriminalize-psychedelic-drugs\/\" title=\"California Introduces Bill To Decriminalize Psychedelic Drugs\">early 20th century<\/a>, \u200cwith their voting preferences shaped by key issues \u200csuch as national pride\u200d and the welfare \u2063of their \u200dhomeland. Notably, the article also highlights Vice President Kamala Harris\u2019s recent acknowledgment\u2064 of \u200bthe community during a \u2063debate.<\/p>\n<p>The Polish American vote \u2064has evolved over the decades, with significant shifts \u2062in\u200d loyalty driven by candidates\u2019 policies and attitudes towards Poland. They&#8217;ve supported both\u200b parties at\u200d different times, making them a crucial demographic\u2064 in the electoral \u200blandscape.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Unexpected bellwether? Polish Americans tend to predict presidential election outcome<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1247194\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>One of the most unexpected bellwethers in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/united-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"United States\">United States<\/a> is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/poland\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"United States\">Polish<\/a> American community, which has correctly chosen almost every president since Woodrow Wilson.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>Since choosing Wilson in 1916, the Polish American vote has sided with the eventual <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/elections\" title=\"presidential election winner\">presidential election winner<\/a> in all but three votes, giving them an 89% success rate. The vote is highly volatile, frequently switching by double digits to choose another party in the next election. It frequently hinges on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-taking-regeneron-drug-remdesivir-therapy-for-coronavirus-diagnosis-ex-wh-doctor-explains\/\" title=\"Trump taking Regeneron drug, Remdesivir therapy for coronavirus diagnosis: ex-WH doctor explains\">president&#038;rsquo<\/a>;s approach toward Poland proper.<\/p>\n<p>The Polish American population stands at around 8 million to 10 million, 2.5% to 3.2% of the U.S. population, the largest Slavic community in the U.S. There are almost 2 million Poles across three swing states, including 800,000 in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n<p>Vice President Kamala Harris called attention to the group during the presidential debate, when she <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/timeline-explaining-the-tucker-carlson-vs-the-pentagon-feud\/\" title=\"Timeline: Explaining The \u2018Tucker Carlson vs. The Pentagon\u2019 Feud\">directly called<\/a> out the 800,000 Polish Pennsylvanians and claimed Russia would invade Poland if Ukraine wasn&rsquo;t properly supported.<\/p>\n<p>Notably, in 2016, Poles sided overwhelmingly with Republican Donald Trump, then flipped by over 10 points to support Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, likely due to his ethnic roots and being the second Catholic president.<\/p>\n<p>Harris&rsquo;s move is just the latest in the long-running role of Poles in elections, who have played a major role since 1916.<\/p>\n<p>The biggest wave of Polish immigrants came to the U.S. between the Civil War and World War I, well after Poland had been divided between Russia, Austria, and Prussia in the Partitions of Poland. They set up a large presence in Chicago.<\/p>\n<p>Polish Americans were first attracted to the Democrats in 1916 over Wilson&rsquo;s promotion of nationalism in Central Europe, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Deluge-America-Remaking-Global-1916-1931\/dp\/0143127977\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"proving instrumental\">proving instrumental<\/a> in the creation of the Republic of Poland. Poland itself declared a national day of mourning after his death.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the Democrats&rsquo; advocacy for Poland, many Poles were angry with the provision of minority protections imposed on Poland by the U.S. and the international community, resulting in them decisively flipping to Republican Warren Harding, momentum that continued to Calvin Coolidge.<\/p>\n<p>Loyalty to their ethnic homeland once again played a decisive role in 1928, when Poles became the only major white ethnic group to go decisively for Republican Herbert Hoover due to his role in saving Poland from famine as head of the American Relief Association in the aftermath of World War I.<\/p>\n<p>Poles were among the wide majority of people who voted overwhelmingly for Franklin D. Roosevelt in all four elections, unaware of the extent of his cooperation with Soviet leader Josef Stalin and their postwar plans for Poland. Their support was buoyed in the latter two elections by Roosevelt&rsquo;s public stance against Nazi Germany and in support of Poland, which had been crushed by the 1940 election for his third term.<\/p>\n<p>Though siding with Truman in 1948, bitterness over the betrayal of Poland at the Yalta Conference resulted in Poles overwhelmingly flipping to the Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952. This support waned by 1956, when the Polish American vote was granted its first loss, siding narrowly with Democrat Adlai Stevenson.<\/p>\n<p>Poles flocked overwhelmingly to John F. Kennedy in 1960, the first Catholic president. They also overwhelmingly sided with his successor, Lyndon B. Johnson, in 1964.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The group&rsquo;s second loss came in 1968, when Poles, incensed by Republican Richard Nixon&rsquo;s running mate&rsquo;s use of the slur &ldquo;Polack,&rdquo; sided with Democrat Hubert Humphrey. Despite this, they gleefully joined Nixon&rsquo;s &ldquo;Silent Majority&rdquo; in 1972, narrowly taking part in Nixon&rsquo;s landslide victory.<\/p>\n<p>In a classic campaign blunder, Republican Gerald Ford said that &ldquo;there is no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe,&rdquo; enraging Poles and other Eastern Europeans and sending them into winner Democratic Jimmy Carter&rsquo;s arms. They sided again with Carter in 1980, resulting in their last unsuccessful vote.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1247194\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1247194\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>**Surprising Indicator? Polish Americans Often Forecast Presidential Election Results**<\/p>\n<p>The Polish American community has emerged as an unexpected indicator of presidential election outcomes in the United States, having accurately predicted nearly every president since Woodrow Wilson. Since supporting Wilson in 1916, their votes have aligned with the eventual winner in all but three elections, resulting in an impressive 89% success rate. This voting bloc is known for its volatility, often shifting by significant margins to back different parties from one election to the next. Their decisions are frequently influenced by how presidents engage with Poland itself.<\/p>\n<p>With a population estimated between 8 million and 10 million\u2014making up about 2.5% to 3.2% of the U.S. population\u2014the Polish American community is the largest Slavic group in the country. Nearly two million Poles reside in three key swing states, including around 800,000 in Pennsylvania. Vice President Kamala Harris highlighted this demographic during a presidential debate by directly addressing these Polish Pennsylvanians and warning that Russia might invade Poland if Ukraine did not receive adequate support.<\/p>\n<p>In a notable shift during recent elections, Poles overwhelmingly supported Republican Donald Trump in 2016 but then switched allegiance by more than ten points to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020\u2014likely influenced by Biden&#8217;s ethnic background and his status as the second Catholic president.<\/p>\n<p>The involvement of Polish Americans in U.S. elections dates back over a century; they began making their mark after immigrating en masse between the Civil War and World War I when Poland was partitioned among Russia, Austria, and Prussia. They established a strong presence particularly in Chicago.<\/p>\n<p>Initially drawn to Democrats due to Wilson\u2019s advocacy for nationalism within Central Europe\u2014which played a crucial role leading to Poland&#8217;s independence\u2014Polish Americans later expressed discontent over minority protections imposed on Poland post-World War I and shifted their support decisively towards Republican Warren Harding.<\/p>\n<p>Their loyalty continued with Herbert Hoover due to his humanitarian efforts during famine relief for Poland after World War I but waned somewhat under Franklin D. Roosevelt despite overwhelming support across all four of his campaigns; many were unaware of Roosevelt\u2019s collaboration with Soviet leader Josef Stalin regarding postwar plans for Poland.<\/p>\n<p>After siding with Harry Truman in 1948 but feeling betrayed at Yalta regarding Poland&#8217;s fate, they largely turned towards Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower by 1952\u2014a trend that saw some decline when they narrowly backed Democrat Adlai Stevenson four years later.<\/p>\n<p>Polish Americans rallied behind John F. Kennedy as he became America\u2019s first Catholic president and continued their support for Lyndon Baines Johnson until experiencing another loss when they voted against Richard Nixon due to offensive remarks made by his running mate about Poles.<\/p>\n<p>Despite this setback, they joined Nixon\u2019s \u201cSilent Majority\u201d movement during his successful re-election campaign before turning against Gerald Ford after he mistakenly claimed there was no Soviet control over Eastern Europe\u2014a misstep that drove them back into Democratic territory under Jimmy Carter&#8217;s candidacy through both terms until their last unsuccessful vote came again under Carter&#8217;s leadership<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2653,"featured_media":2340360,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Polish-American.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[24076,33015,40772],"class_list":["post-2340359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-bellwether","tag-election-prediction","tag-polish-americans"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Polish-American.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2653"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2340359"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340359\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2340360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2340359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2340359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2340359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}