{"id":2340169,"date":"2024-09-12T11:40:01","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T15:40:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/montana-senate-race-shifts-toward-gop-in-blow-to-schumer-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-09-12T11:42:54","modified_gmt":"2024-09-12T15:42:54","slug":"montana-senate-race-shifts-toward-gop-in-blow-to-schumer-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/montana-senate-race-shifts-toward-gop-in-blow-to-schumer-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Montana Senate race shifts toward GOP in blow to Schumer &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fmontana-senate-race-shifts-toward-gop-in-blow-to-schumer-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2340169&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The Montana Senate race is\u200b shifting \u200ctowards the Republican Party, presenting a potential challenge for Democratic \u2062Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer&#8217;s aspirations to maintain his majority. According\u200b to the nonpartisan Cook\u2063 Political Report, the race has been \u2064upgraded from a &#8220;toss-up&#8221; to\u200b &#8220;lean Republican,&#8221; influenced by\u200c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/for-biden-the-debate-stakes-couldnt-be-higher-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"For Biden, the debate stakes couldn\u2019t be higher - Washington Examiner\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ga-gop-sen-david-perdue-in-runoff-battle-with-democrat-jon-ossoff\/\" title=\"Ga. GOP Sen. David Perdue in runoff battle with Democrat Jon Ossoff\">recent polls<\/a>\u2062 indicating<\/a> that Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a\u2063 former Navy SEAL, holds a slight but consistent lead over vulnerable incumbent \u200bSen.\u2062 Jon Tester (D-MT). A recent poll showed \u200cTester trailing Sheehy \u200dby 8 percentage points.\u2063 Increased Republican confidence is fueled by both public and private polling data. Historically, Tester has been a tough opponent \u200bfor Republicans, having \u200cpreviously won\u200d elections against them in 2006, 2012, and \u20632018. However, the changing dynamics\u2064 in the political landscape\u200b of Montana may impact his re-election chances significantly.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Montana Senate race shifts toward GOP in blow to Schumer&rsquo;s majority hopes<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1759199\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>A nonpartisan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/analysis\/national\/national-politics\/presidential-campaign-reset-arizona-georgia-and-nevada-move?check_logged_in=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>election handicapper<\/a> updated the rating for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/montana\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Montana<\/a> Senate race on Thursday, shifting the state toward <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/republicans\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Republicans<\/a> and increasing the likelihood that the GOP will win back control of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/senate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Senate<\/a> in November.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>The<em> Cook Political Report <\/em>is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/analysis\/senate\/montana-senate\/montana-senate-moves-lean-republican-gop-increasingly-favored-win?check_logged_in=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>moving<\/a> Montana into the &ldquo;lean Republican&rdquo; category from &ldquo;toss-up.&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/montana-senate-race-moves-from-toss-up-to-leans-republican\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Sabato&rsquo;s Crystal Ball<\/a> at the University of Virginia&rsquo;s Center for Politics <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/3145647\/tim-sheehy-jon-tester-montana-race-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>changed the race projections<\/a> toward Republicans in Montana last week.<\/p>\n<p>The battle between vulnerable incumbent Sen. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/3131846\/tester-advocated-montana-tech-executives-donated-campaign\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Jon Tester<\/a> (D-MT) and Republican Senate candidate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/3068992\/sheehys-ceo-exit-paves-path-for-senate-showdown\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Tim Sheehy<\/a>, a former Navy SEAL, has become one of the most-watched races this cycle since the result could tip control of the Senate from Democrats to Republicans.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In rationalizing the change in ratings, the group pointed to recent polls that show Sheehy opening a &ldquo;small but consistent lead&rdquo; despite the relatively few public polls in Montana over the last few months.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">  https:\/\/twitter.com\/CookPolitical\/status\/1834208888574341416 <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/3144426\/tester-trails-sheehy-8-points-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>poll<\/a> released last Thursday showed Tester down by 8 percentage points to Sheehy, at 49% to 41%. The <a href=\"https:\/\/elections2024.thehill.com\/montana\/montana-senate-tester-sheehy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>average <\/a>of recent polls shows Tester down by roughly 4.5 points. Private Republican polling also shows Sheehy with a leg up on Tester, giving GOP Senate sources increasing confidence.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve seen a number of private polling that is similar to the public polling &mdash; I think Tester is going to lose, I feel very certain of that,&rdquo; a former Senate GOP leadership aide said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has a 51-seat advantage and the ability to tap Vice President Kamala Harris for any tiebreaking votes. He is already expected to lose one seat in West Virginia with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). Holding on to Tester&rsquo;s seat in another red state former President Donald Trump is bound to carry is key to retaining the majority.<\/p>\n<p>In the past, Tester has proven to be a difficult candidate to oust for Republicans. In 2006, Tester beat an incumbent Republican senator. He also easily defeated GOP challengers in 2012 and 2018. However, Jessica Taylor of the <em>Cook Political Report <\/em>specifies that the last time Tester was on the ballot in a presidential cycle, he was running far ahead of President Barack Obama.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The last time Tester was on the ballot in a presidential cycle, the then-freshman senator outran Barack Obama by 7 points even as Mitt Romney won the state by 13 points,&rdquo; Taylor wrote. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s likely that Trump hits his 2020 margin of 16 points &mdash; or even higher &mdash; which means Tester would need to outrun the top of the ticket by double digits.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tester has been in office since 2006 and has won reelection twice despite the state traditionally voting Republican. Montana, the home state of National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT), is the GOP&rsquo;s top pick-up target. Daines personally recruited Sheehy, who is a military veteran and businessman.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats are banking on an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/breaking-arizona-republicans-just-joined-democrats-to-repeal-1864-law\/\" title=\"Arizona Republicans team up with Democrats to repeal a law from 1864\">abortion-rights ballot measure<\/a> that could help Tester secure a fourth term in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/president-trump-slams-wsj-for-article-shaming-gop\/\" title=\"President Trump slams WSJ for article shaming GOP\">traditionally red state<\/a>. To keep the majority, Democrats must defend Montana, where Trump won by 16 points in 2020, and another seven competitive seats.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1759199\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1759199\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The &#8220;lean Republican&#8221; category from &#8220;toss-up,&#8221; indicating a shift in favor of the GOP. Last week, Sabato&#8217;s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia also adjusted its projections to reflect a Republican advantage in Montana. The contest between vulnerable incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, has become one of the most closely monitored races this election cycle, as its outcome could determine Senate control.<\/p>\n<p>The rating change was justified by recent polls showing Sheehy with a &#8220;small but consistent lead,&#8221; despite limited public polling in Montana recently. A poll released last Thursday indicated Tester trailing Sheehy by 8 percentage points (49% to 41%), while an average of recent polls shows him down by about 4.5 points. Private GOP polling also suggests Sheehy&#8217;s advantage over Tester, boosting confidence among Republican sources.<\/p>\n<p>Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) currently holds a slim majority with 51 seats and can rely on Vice President Kamala Harris for tiebreaking votes if necessary. However, he is expected to lose one seat due to Sen. Joe Manchin&#8217;s retirement in West Virginia, making it crucial for Democrats to retain Tester&#8217;s seat in another state that traditionally leans red.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, Tester has been tough for Republicans to unseat; he defeated an incumbent GOP senator in 2006 and won reelection against GOP challengers in both 2012 and 2018. However, Jessica Taylor from the Cook Political Report notes that during his last presidential election cycle run, he outperformed Barack Obama by seven points even as Mitt Romney won Montana by thirteen points.<\/p>\n<p>With Trump likely maintaining or exceeding his previous margin of victory\u201416 points\u2014in Montana during the upcoming election cycle, Tester would need to significantly outperform the top of the ticket again if he hopes to secure reelection.<\/p>\n<p>Having served since 2006 and winning two reelections despite Montana&#8217;s Republican leanings makes Tester&#8217;s position notable; however, with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines actively supporting Sheehy\u2019s campaign\u2014who is both a military veteran and businessman\u2014the race remains highly competitive. Democrats are hoping that an abortion-rights ballot measure will aid Tester&#8217;s bid for a fourth term in this traditionally conservative state where Trump had significant support previously<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2657,"featured_media":2340170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/jon-tester-tim-sheehy-august-2024.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[6203,8605,5894,4411,34723],"class_list":["post-2340169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-gop","tag-montana","tag-politics","tag-schumer","tag-senate-race"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/jon-tester-tim-sheehy-august-2024.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2657"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2340169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340169\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2340170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2340169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2340169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2340169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}