{"id":2338424,"date":"2024-09-08T14:25:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-08T18:25:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nate-silver-gives-trump-new-probability-high-of-victory-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-09-08T14:29:06","modified_gmt":"2024-09-08T18:29:06","slug":"nate-silver-gives-trump-new-probability-high-of-victory-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nate-silver-gives-trump-new-probability-high-of-victory-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Nate Silver gives Trump new probability high of victory &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fnate-silver-gives-trump-new-probability-high-of-victory-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2338424&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Election analyst Nate Silver\u2062 has reported a significant increase in Donald Trump&#8217;s likelihood of winning a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/a-circuit-breaker-on-election-night\/\" title=\"The question looms: just how does it come to be that three quarters of Republican and nearly one third of Democrat voters all believe that the election was stolen from Trump?\">future election<\/a> \u2064against\u200d Vice President Kamala Harris. \u2064Following a recent poll by the New York Times\/Sienna, which is highly regarded, Silver\u200b estimates Trump \u200bhas a 63.8% chance of \u200dvictory, compared to Harris&#8217;s 36%. Trump is projected \u200bto prevail in \u200cseveral <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-losing-to-trump-in-states-expected-to-decide-2024-election-poll\/\" title=\"Poll: Trump leading Biden in key states for 2024 election.\">key \u2062swing states<\/a>, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. This represents a nearly five-point increase in Trump&#8217;s probabilities since last week, indicating a decline in support \u200bfor Harris as President Biden&#8217;s influence\u2062 wanes. Additionally, \u2064a \u200csubstantial \u2064number of voters perceive Harris as overly progressive, with nearly half of likely\u200c voters\u2064 expressing this concern, complicating her <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-plot-to-expand-abortion-playbook-for-2024-house-takeover\/\" title=\"Democrats plan to expand abortion strategies for 2024 House control\">campaign strategy moving forward<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Nate Silver gives Trump new probability high of victory<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1748505\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Election analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/nate-silver\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Nate Silver\">Nate Silver<\/a> gave former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Nate Silver\">Donald Trump<\/a> a record-high probability of winning against Vice President Kamala Harris.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>The bump came partially as a result of Sunday&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/3146898\/trump-receives-pre-debate-polling-boost-in-battleground-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"New York Times\/Sienna poll\"><em>New York Times<\/em>\/Sienna poll<\/a>, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver&rsquo;s newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris&rsquo;s 36%. The former president is also favored to win every <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/update-corrupted-software-that-stole-6000-votes-from-trump-in-michigan-county-shut-down-for-two-hours-in-red-counties-in-georgia-on-election-day\/\" title=\"Update: Corrupted Software that Stole 6,000 Votes From Trump in Michigan County -- Shut Down for TWO HOURS in Red Counties in Georgia on Election Day\">swing state<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Silver&rsquo;s current odds give Trump a 64% chance of winning Pennsylvania, 54% for Michigan, 53% for Wisconsin, 77% for Arizona, 75% for North Carolina, 68% for Georgia, and 61% for Nevada.<\/p>\n<p>The new probability total is a nearly five-point boost for Trump since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3144047\/trump-election-forecast-bounce-nate-silver-harris-boom-mellows\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Thursday\">Thursday<\/a>, when he was given a 58.2% probability, itself a boost from the 52.4% a week prior. The prediction shows a further eroding of Harris&rsquo;s honeymoon support since President Joe Biden dropped out in July.<\/p>\n<p>In a Substack post, Silver <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/the-mistakes-of-2019-could-cost-harris?utm_source=profile&amp;utm_medium=reader2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"explained\">explained<\/a> that the new poll was such bad news for Harris due to the large sample size and reliability of the poll, which he ranks as the second best. He said the new poll &ldquo;confirms the model&rsquo;s view that there&rsquo;s been some sort of a shift in momentum in the race.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The election analyst zeroed in on perceptions that Harris is too progressive as especially alarming for Democrats &mdash; the poll found that 47% of likely voters believe that Harris is too liberal, compared to 32% who see Trump as too conservative.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;I&rsquo;m not a messaging-and-tactics guy like&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.messageboxnews.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Dan Pfieffer<\/a>, but I&rsquo;m not quite sure how Harris is supposed to spin her way out of this perception,&rdquo; he wrote. &ldquo;Her convention speech was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/kamala-harris-is-not-going-back-to\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>aggressively centrist and aimed at male voters<\/a>, which I thought was smart. But there&rsquo;s a track record here of progressive policy advocacy on the 2019 campaign trail and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/congress-trump-score\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>in her voting record in the Senate<\/a>.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Her attempt to mitigate this issue presents a problem in itself, Silver argued.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The flip-flopping may explain why Harris has been weirdly reluctant to do media hits or articulate policy specifics,&rdquo; he continued. &ldquo;This strategy may have worked well enough when she was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/kamala-harris-cant-meme-her-way-to\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>riding high off the vibes of the Democrats&rsquo; candidate swap<\/a>, but it&rsquo;s causing her more problems now.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The <em>New York Times<\/em>\/Sienna poll interviewed 1,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-receives-pre-debate-polling-boost-in-battleground-states-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Trump receives pre-debate polling boost in battleground states - Washington Examiner\">695 registered voters nationwide<\/a> from Sept. 3-6, with a margin of error of +\/- 2.8%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1748505\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1748505\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nate Silver has assigned former President Donald Trump a record-high chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election. This increase is partly due to the recent New York Times\/Sienna poll, which Silver considers one of the most reliable. According to his latest assessment, Trump has a 63.8% likelihood of winning, while Harris stands at 36%. Additionally, Trump is projected to win in all key swing states: he has a 64% chance in Pennsylvania, 54% in Michigan, 53% in Wisconsin, 77% in Arizona, 75% in North Carolina, 68% in Georgia, and 61% in Nevada. This new probability marks nearly a five-point rise for Trump since Thursday when he was at a 58.2% likelihood\u2014up from the previous week\u2019s figure of 52.4%. The prediction indicates that Harris&#8217;s initial support has diminished since President Joe Biden&#8217;s withdrawal from the race last July.<\/p>\n<p>In his Substack post, Silver noted that this poll presents troubling news for Harris due to its large sample size and reliability; he ranks it as second best among polls. He stated that it &#8220;confirms the model\u2019s view that there\u2019s been some sort of shift in momentum&#8221; during the campaign. Silver highlighted concerns among Democrats regarding perceptions of Harris being too progressive\u201447% of likely voters believe she is too liberal compared to only 32% who think Trump is too conservative.<\/p>\n<p>Silver expressed uncertainty about how Harris could change this perception despite her centrist approach during her convention speech aimed at male voters\u2014a strategy he deemed smart given her history of advocating progressive policies on the campaign trail and her Senate voting record. He suggested that her attempts to address this issue might be problematic as well: &#8220;The flip-flopping may explain why Harris has been weirdly reluctant to do media hits or articulate policy specifics,&#8221; he remarked. He added that while this strategy may have worked when she was benefiting from positive Democratic sentiment following Biden&#8217;s exit from the race, it now seems counterproductive.<\/p>\n<p>The New York Times\/Sienna poll surveyed 1,695 registered voters nationwide between September 3-6 and carries a margin of error of +\/-2.8%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2653,"featured_media":2338425,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Trump-GA.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[32904,20531,3634,7621,32076],"class_list":["post-2338424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-nate-silver","tag-probability","tag-trump","tag-victory","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Trump-GA.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2338424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2653"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2338424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2338424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2338425"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2338424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2338424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2338424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}