{"id":2337111,"date":"2024-09-05T09:25:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-05T13:25:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-gets-election-forecast-bounce-from-nate-silver-as-harris-boom-mellows-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-09-05T09:29:53","modified_gmt":"2024-09-05T13:29:53","slug":"trump-gets-election-forecast-bounce-from-nate-silver-as-harris-boom-mellows-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-gets-election-forecast-bounce-from-nate-silver-as-harris-boom-mellows-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump gets election forecast bounce from Nate Silver as Harris boom mellows &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftrump-gets-election-forecast-bounce-from-nate-silver-as-harris-boom-mellows-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2337111&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The \u200darticle discusses recent election predictions \u2063by analyst Nate Silver, \u2064indicating a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/md-lifting-capacity-limits-for-businesses-on-friday\/\" title=\"Md. lifting capacity limits for businesses on Friday\">significant improvement<\/a> in Donald Trump&#8217;s chances of winning the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/are-covid-case-surges-more-fake-news\/\" title=\"Are COVID Case Surges More Fake News?\">upcoming election<\/a>.\u2062 Silver&#8217;s updated model suggests Trump now has a 58.2% probability of victory, marking the highest forecast for him \u2063since late July. This \u200bshift comes in the context of a decline \u200din support for Vice President Kamala Harris, whose chances have dropped to 41.6%. The piece notes that Democratic \u200benthusiasm had surged following\u2062 President Joe Biden&#8217;s withdrawal in favor\u200d of Harris, but this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gingrich-gop-could-gain-up-to-7-senate-seats-50-in-house\/\" title=\"Gingrich: GOP Could Gain Up to 7 Senate Seats, 50 in House\">optimism appears<\/a> to be waning. Silver also mentions that Harris has been \u2063trending poorly\u200d in state polls recently, contributing to her declining odds. the election forecast remains\u2062 competitive, with Trump&#8217;s chances approaching earlier highs observed in the summer.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Trump gets election forecast bounce from Nate Silver as Harris boom mellows<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1746414\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Donald Trump\">Donald Trump<\/a> has his best chance at victory since the end of July, election analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/nate-silver\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Nate Silver\">Nate Silver<\/a> predicted.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>Democrats have seen a surge in optimism since President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Joe Biden\">Joe Biden<\/a> dropped out of the race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris in late July, ushering in a series of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-great-politically-for-republicans-to-talk-arizona-election-audit\/\" title=\"Trump: &#039;Great Politically&#039; for Republicans to Talk Arizona Election Audit\">polls showing<\/a> their new candidate in the lead. However, this enthusiasm appears to be fading, and Silver sees signs of Trump pulling off a comeback victory in November. His prediction model, updated on Wednesday, has Trump with a 58.2% chance of winning.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Former President Donald Trump participates in a town hall with Fox News host Sean Hannity at the New Holland Arena on Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024, in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. (AP Photo\/Evan Vucci)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&ldquo;The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump&rsquo;s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,&rdquo; Silver <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"wrote\">wrote<\/a> on his Substack, the Silver Bulletin.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;There&rsquo;s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,&rdquo; he added.<\/p>\n<p>His model has given Trump a significant boost in a single week, with his odds going from 52.4% to 58.2%. Harris&rsquo;s odds decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.<\/p>\n<p>Trump&rsquo;s chances are approaching his high of 61.3% on July 30, when the model was launched. Harris had a 38.1% chance.<\/p>\n<p>The <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment.<\/p>\n<p>Silver <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/theres-no-normal-in-this-election\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"elaborated\">elaborated<\/a> on the reasoning for Harris falling behind on the probability model in another Substack piece. He gave three main points as to why Harris&rsquo;s chances at victory were declining: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. not only dropping out of the race but actively endorsing Trump, poor polls for Harris in Pennsylvania, and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3142311\/kamala-harris-dnc-convention-bounce-trump-debate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>disappointing<\/a> post-Democratic National Convention bump.<\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere, he noted troubling polls for Harris in Michigan and Republicans overtaking Democrats in enthusiasm.<\/p>\n<p>On X, Silver criticized Harris for rehiring many figures from the Biden campaign.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;I think I&rsquo;d buy the bull case for Harris a bit more if she <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/leaked-private-call-reveals-biden-questioning-trump-about-turning-his-head-during-assassination-attempt\/\" title=\"Leaked private call reveals Biden questioning Trump about turning his head during assassination attempt\">hadn&#038;rsquo<\/a>;t rehired so many of the Biden people,&rdquo; he <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/1831404508498563220\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>said<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven&rsquo;t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,&rdquo; Silver <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/1831405596828221601\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>added<\/a> in a follow-up post.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1746414\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1746414\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump receives a boost in election forecasts from Nate Silver as Harris&#8217;s initial surge fades. According to election analyst Nate Silver, former President Donald Trump now has his strongest chance of winning since late July. Following President Joe Biden&#8217;s withdrawal from the race and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, Democrats experienced a wave of optimism reflected in various polls showing Harris leading. However, this enthusiasm seems to be waning, with Silver indicating that Trump may be on track for a comeback victory in November. His updated prediction model shows Trump with a 58.2% likelihood of winning.<\/p>\n<p>Silver noted that while the forecast remains uncertain, Trump&#8217;s chances are at their highest since July 30. He mentioned that there is room for discussion regarding the impact of convention bounces but pointed out that Harris has been receiving lackluster state poll results recently. In just one week, Trump&#8217;s odds have risen from 52.4% to 58.2%, while Harris&#8217;s chances have dropped from 47.3% to 41.6%. Trump&#8217;s current odds are nearing his peak of 61.3% recorded on July 30 when the model was first introduced.<\/p>\n<p>In another piece on Substack, Silver explained why he believes Harris\u2019s prospects are diminishing: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.&#8217;s exit from the race and endorsement of Trump; poor polling results for Harris in Pennsylvania; and an underwhelming post-Democratic National Convention bounce were key factors he identified.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, troubling polls for Harris in Michigan and increasing enthusiasm among Republicans were noted by Silver as concerning signs for her campaign strategy\u2014particularly her decision to rehire many individuals from Biden\u2019s team drew criticism from him on social media.<\/p>\n<p>Silver expressed skepticism about whether the initial excitement surrounding Harris after Biden&#8217;s departure would have occurred regardless and commented on her convention speech being well-received but suggested she hasn&#8217;t effectively capitalized on momentum since then<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2653,"featured_media":2337112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/unnamed-file-1.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[36637,32438,32904,3634,32076],"class_list":["post-2337111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-election-forecast","tag-kamala-harris","tag-nate-silver","tag-trump","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/unnamed-file-1.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2337111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2653"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2337111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2337111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2337112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2337111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2337111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2337111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}