{"id":2336522,"date":"2024-09-04T10:47:59","date_gmt":"2024-09-04T14:47:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/pollsters-that-were-dead-on-in-last-2-elections-drop-2024-update-kamala-harris-should-be-terrified\/"},"modified":"2024-09-04T10:50:42","modified_gmt":"2024-09-04T14:50:42","slug":"pollsters-that-were-dead-on-in-last-2-elections-drop-2024-update-kamala-harris-should-be-terrified","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/pollsters-that-were-dead-on-in-last-2-elections-drop-2024-update-kamala-harris-should-be-terrified\/","title":{"rendered":"Pollsters That Were Dead-On in Last 2 Elections Drop 2024 Update, Kamala Harris Should Be Terrified"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">32<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpollsters-that-were-dead-on-in-last-2-elections-drop-2024-update-kamala-harris-should-be-terrified%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2336522&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses\u2063 the\u2062 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/on-the-sidelines-gop-megadonor-drops-support-for-desantis-presidential-bid\/\" title=\"GOP Megadonor Withdraws Support for DeSantis&#039; Presidential Campaign\">current\u2062 political landscape<\/a> regarding Kamala Harris&#8217;s\u2062 campaign as\u2063 she faces Donald Trump in the upcoming election.\u2062 Polling data suggests that \u200dHarris\u2019s momentum has stalled since the Democratic National Convention,\u200b and recent polls from \u200dpollsters \u200dInsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar indicate \u2064that Trump \u200dmay have an edge in critical battleground states. <\/p>\n<p>While Harris&#8217;s campaign\u200b has energized young and minority voters, it appears to have alienated some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-right-side-of-history\/\" title=\"The Right Side of History\">blue-collar union<\/a> and working-class\u2062 centrist voters that \u2062Biden captured \u2062in 2020. Nationally, Harris is only leading \u2063Trump by a narrow margin of\u2063 1.9%. \u2064Comparatively, Biden led by 7.2% in 2020, which translated \u200dto a\u200c much smaller\u2062 win in battleground states. The article warns that the upcoming \u2064debates\u2063 could play a significant role in determining the election&#8217;s outcome, highlighting concerns about Harris&#8217;s debate performance. <\/p>\n<p>although \u200dthere was \u200bearly\u200c enthusiasm for Harris&#8217;s campaign, recent developments indicate a decline in support, which could impact her\u2064 chances against Trump, particularly in key states.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> <script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Is Kamala Harris&rsquo; mojo fading? Two pollsters who got the last two elections right say that it is &mdash; and they think Donald Trump has an edge in the battleground states.<\/p>\n<p>According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/09\/03\/us-news\/kamala-harris-has-already-lost-momentum-pollsters\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New York Post<\/a>, InsiderAdvantage and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/trump-absolutely-smoking-kamala-latest-rasmussen-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trafalgar<\/a> polling surveyed seven battleground states and predicted the GOP nominee would end up with 296 electoral votes if the election were held today &mdash; more than enough to win.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Matt Towery of Georgia-based InsiderAdvantage found Trump ahead in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina (and down by 0.4% only in Georgia),&rdquo; the Post noted.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;He noted that both he and Robert Calahy of Trafalgar (which handled Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) were both in the top 3 of pollsters in the &lsquo;16 and &lsquo;20 cycles because their methodology allows them to &ldquo;pick up some Trump vote that some of the other pollsters might not be able to get.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>All of the states were within the margin of error, it&rsquo;s worth noting &mdash; but the Harris momentum has notably stalled, in their view, given that the flurry of activity which coincided with her accession to the top of the ticket has abated somewhat.<\/p>\n<p>  <script> \t\t\t\tif( ! getCookie( 'ff_subbed' ) ) if( typeof FFADS.replace_ict !='undefined' ) if( FFADS.replace_ict ) eval( FFADS.replace_ict ); \t\t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The momentum that we were seeing after the Democratic National Convention has sort of come to an end,&rdquo; Towery said.<\/p>\n<p>As for voter enthusiasm, which had been up on the Democratic side, that too has come back down to earth for Harris.<\/p>\n<p>Towery said that now, both parties are &ldquo;close to parity&rdquo; in terms of how excited they are about their respective candidates.<\/p>\n<p>The Trafalgar polls, taken between Aug. 28 and 30, saw <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/09\/02\/us-news\/latest-swing-state-polls-suggest-trump-could-score-decisive-victory-against-kamala-harris\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trump winning<\/a> 44 electoral votes from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n<p>Insider Advantage took its polls between Aug. 29 and 31 and found Trump on top in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, with him just slightly behind in Georgia.<\/p>\n<p>Both pollsters agreed that the debate between the two candidates could be the decisive point of the election, with Towery saying that, should <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/former-navy-seal-congressman-finds-telling-fbi-left-trump-shooter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trump<\/a> present a &ldquo;realistic&rdquo; version of himself in the Sept. 10 showdown, &ldquo;this could become a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/divine-mercy-how-this-ob-gyn-went-from-killing-babies-to-saving-them\/\" title=\"Divine Mercy: How This OB\/GYN Went From Killing Babies To Saving Them\">real turning point<\/a> like the Carter-Reagan debate that basically sealed the deal.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Calahy, meanwhile said Kamala has the most to &ldquo;lose&rdquo; and finds herself in a &ldquo;no-win situation&rdquo; if Trump doesn&rsquo;t say something that &ldquo;overshadows&rdquo; the rest of the event.<\/p>\n<p>Now, why is this important, aside from the fact that these pollsters have gotten it right in the past? It&rsquo;s why they think they get it right &mdash; namely, that they pick up Trump support where other pollsters don&rsquo;t.<\/p>\n<p>What we&rsquo;ve heard about in the past few weeks has been that Kamala Harris&rsquo; campaign has energized young and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/dnc-chairman-argues-republican-strongholds-are-in-play-with-harris-on-ballot-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"DNC chairman argues Republican strongholds are in play with Harris on ballot - Washington Examiner\">minority voters &#038;mdash<\/a>; two groups that weren&rsquo;t turning out in droves for Joe Biden.<\/p>\n<p>However, there was bound to be a trade-off, something that the media has seemed to miss: Kamala is too progressive for for the blue-collar union voter or working-class centrist that Biden managed to keep in the Democratic fold back in 2020. She hasn&rsquo;t managed to help herself much in the interim in that department, no matter how many campaign events she holds with Megan Thee Stallion.<\/p>\n<p>Nationally, RealClearPolitics&rsquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">aggregate<\/a> only has Harris up by 1.9 percent. If that sounds good for her, it&rsquo;s not; she&rsquo;ll have to win the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/6-steps-the-democrats-will-take-to-fundamentally-alter-america-and-ensure-their-permanent-power\/\" title=\"6 Steps The Democrats Will Take To Fundamentally Alter America And Ensure Their Permanent Power\">national popular vote<\/a> by a significant percentage to even have a shot at winning in battleground states.<\/p>\n<p>To put this into perspective: Biden led Trump nationally by 7.2 percent in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2020\/trump-vs-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">same average<\/a> in 2020, but only won by 4.5 percent and by much slimmer margins in battleground states. In 2016, Clinton led <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2016\/trump-vs-clinton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the polling<\/a> nationally by 3.2 percent, won by 2.1 percent, and lost the election in the battleground states.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, Harris&rsquo; upward momentum has more or less stalled after the convention, leading to the debate and the final weeks of campaigning being the deciding factor. Considering <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/kamalas-desired-debate-changes-rejected-abc-makes-debate-trump-even-harder-harris\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris&rsquo; debate skills<\/a>, these are polls that should have her very,&nbsp;<em>very<\/em> worried.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> <label>* Name<\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> <\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> <label>* <\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> <\/div>\n<p> <label>* Message<\/label> <br \/> <textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea>  <\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> <input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\">  <\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script>  <\/div>\n<p>   <script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> <\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is Kamala Harris losing her momentum? Two pollsters who accurately predicted the outcomes of the last two elections believe she is, and they suggest that Donald Trump has an advantage in key battleground states. The New York Post reports that InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar polling conducted surveys in seven battleground states, forecasting that the GOP nominee would secure 296 electoral votes if the election were held today\u2014more than enough for victory. Matt Towery from InsiderAdvantage indicated that Trump is leading in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, with a narrow deficit of just 0.4% in Georgia. Both Towery and Robert Calahy from Trafalgar ranked among the top three pollsters during the 2016 and 2020 elections due to their methodology, which captures some Trump support overlooked by other polls.<\/p>\n<p>While all surveyed states fell within the margin of error, they noted a significant slowdown in Harris&#8217;s momentum since her rise to prominence following her nomination. &#8220;The enthusiasm we observed after the Democratic National Convention has diminished,&#8221; Towery remarked. Voter excitement on the Democratic side has also decreased for Harris; both parties now appear nearly equal regarding enthusiasm for their candidates.<\/p>\n<p>Trafalgar&#8217;s polls conducted between August 28-30 showed Trump winning electoral votes from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Insider Advantage&#8217;s polls taken between August 29-31 found Trump leading in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina while trailing slightly in Georgia. Both pollsters agreed that upcoming debates could be pivotal for determining election outcomes; Towery suggested that if Trump presents a &#8220;realistic&#8221; version of himself during their September 10 debate, it could serve as a crucial turning point similar to past debates like Carter-Reagan.<\/p>\n<p>Calahy pointed out that Kamala faces significant risks going into this debate; she finds herself at a disadvantage unless Trump makes an error substantial enough to overshadow everything else discussed during it.<\/p>\n<p>Why does this matter? These pollsters have consistently been accurate because they capture Trump&#8217;s support more effectively than others do. Recently reported trends indicate Harris\u2019s campaign has energized young voters and minorities\u2014groups less enthusiastic about Joe Biden previously\u2014but there\u2019s been an overlooked trade-off: Kamala may be too progressive for blue-collar union voters or centrist working-class individuals who supported Biden in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Despite numerous campaign events featuring popular figures like Megan Thee Stallion aimed at boosting her appeal among these demographics, Harris hasn&#8217;t made significant gains with them since then. Currently aggregated data from RealClearPolitics shows her only slightly ahead by about 1.9%. While this might seem favorable at first glance\u2014it isn&#8217;t sufficient; she needs to win by a larger margin nationally to have any chance of success in battleground states.<\/p>\n<p>For context: In comparison to Biden&#8217;s lead over Trump nationally by approximately 7.2% back in 2020 (where he ultimately won by just over four points), Clinton had led national polling by around three percent but lost crucial battlegrounds despite winning overall margins smaller than expected based on those leads.<\/p>\n<p>Harris\u2019s upward trajectory appears stalled post-convention; thus upcoming debates along with final campaigning weeks will likely determine results moving forward\u2014a situation concerning given doubts surrounding her debate performance capabilities according to current polling data<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2336523,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/lol-trump.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[40064,6571,32438,33017,27147],"class_list":["post-2336522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-2024-update","tag-elections","tag-kamala-harris","tag-political-analysis","tag-pollsters"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/lol-trump.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2336522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2336522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2336522\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2336523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2336522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2336522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2336522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}