{"id":2335498,"date":"2024-09-02T07:49:01","date_gmt":"2024-09-02T11:49:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/can-rfk-jr-s-coalition-help-swing-the-election-for-trump\/"},"modified":"2024-09-02T07:53:50","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T11:53:50","slug":"can-rfk-jr-s-coalition-help-swing-the-election-for-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/can-rfk-jr-s-coalition-help-swing-the-election-for-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Can RFK Jr.\u2019s Coalition Help Swing The Election For Trump?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fcan-rfk-jr-s-coalition-help-swing-the-election-for-trump%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2335498&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses \u2063the \u2064implications \u2062of Robert\u200b F. Kennedy Jr.&#8217;s endorsement of Donald Trump for \u2062the\u200b upcoming election. \u200dWhile many analysts believe this endorsement will have minimal impact\u2064 on the race, similar to opinions following Trump&#8217;s unexpected\u2062 success in 2016, there are concerns \u200babout the potential consequences of Kennedy&#8217;s involvement with Trump. The Wall \u2064Street Journal cautions that Kennedy\u2019s presidency could pose a risk to Trump, advising\u200b him to keep \u200dtheir relationship\u200d distant. Various polling analyses suggest Kennedy, who has polled around 5%, might not change\u2064 election dynamics \u2062significantly, as his supporters \u200bare less likely to engage with the traditional voting process. However, the \u2062article argues that these assessments fail to\u200d account for\u2062 the\u2063 potential emergence of disillusioned voting blocs energized by Kennedy\u2019s endorsement, which could significantly alter voter turnout. \u200bUltimately, it posits that Kennedy&#8217;s coalition, consisting mainly of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/tulsi-gabbard-asked-if-shed-be-vp-on-gop-ticket-in-2024-i-think-about-it-every-day\/\" title=\"Tulsi Gabbard ponders GOP VP role daily for 2024.\">anti-establishment voters<\/a>, \u200bmight\u2062 still rally around him, given his recent endorsement of Trump rather than withdrawing from the race.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The consensus that emerged among pollsters and pundits across the political spectrum after RFK Jr.&rsquo;s shock endorsement of Donald Trump was that it would have little effect on the outcome. But does that consensus reflect the same groupthink that missed the Trump surprise in 2016?<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/opinion\/rfk-jr-endorses-donald-trump-2024-nicole-shanahan-kamala-harris-715235a1?mod=hp_opin_pos_5%2523cxrecs_s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">editorial board of The Wall Street Journal warned<\/a> that while Kennedy&rsquo;s backing could possibly help Trump marginally in battleground states, &ldquo;the price could be high if it includes putting Mr. Kennedy in a second Trump Administration,&rdquo; concluding that &ldquo;Mr. Trump&rsquo;s best response is to thank RFK Jr. for his support, make no promises about the future, and by all means avoid joint campaign appearances&rdquo; to avoid the taint of association with his fringe positions.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/538\/momentum-rfk-jrs-endorsement-give-trump\/story?id=113111150\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ABC News&rsquo; 538 polling site<\/a> assured readers that &ldquo;our analysis of the polling data suggests Kennedy&rsquo;s endorsement of Trump will have a minimal impact on the race. Kennedy, who has consistently polled around 5 percent since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee, was drawing roughly equally from both Trump and Harris &hellip; [T]he effect of his departure on overall support for either candidate will be small.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/08\/22\/us\/elections\/kennedy-polls-trump-endorsement-effect.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The New York Times&rsquo; analysis<\/a> of the move asserts that the endorsement &ldquo;is unlikely to change the nature of the race &hellip; in part because it is hard to know how many of Mr. Kennedy&rsquo;s supporters will vote in November. They are less likely than others to have voted in 2020, and are also less likely to say they will vote come November.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>What these static, conventional assessments miss is the very dynamic that stunned the political world <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/2016-polls-president-trump-clinton-what-went-wrong\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">in 2016 when Trump outperformed polling averages<\/a> by unprecedented margins to win a victory that virtually no one in the establishment saw coming: The activation of the disaffected, hidden voting blocks bound together only by their common hatred of that establishment.<\/p>\n<p>Kennedy&rsquo;s supporters number far more than the 5 percent of the electorate reflected in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/republicans-vowed-to-elect-more-women-they-did-just-that\/\" title=\"Republicans Vowed To Elect More Women...They Did Just That\">recent polling<\/a> after the major party establishments and corporate media marginalized his campaign. Polls taken before he was frozen out of the presidential debate (despite exceeding the established criteria) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/11\/01\/spoiler-alert-rfk-jr-takes-eye-popping-22-in-poll-against-biden-trump-00124855\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">showed nearly a quarter of the electorate supporting his candidacy<\/a>, with <a href=\"https:\/\/scri.siena.edu\/2023\/11\/07\/in-3-way-race-independent-robert-kennedy-jr-garners-24-across-6-battleground-states-trump-35-biden-33-kennedy-24-rfk-noses-ahead-among-voters-under-45\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">even stronger levels of support among younger voters<\/a>. Thirty-two years ago, Ross Perot won 19 percent of the vote in the general election on the strength of his debate performances; it was a foregone conclusion that RFK Jr.&rsquo;s support would inevitably melt away without access to the only platform that bestows legitimacy in the eyes of most voters.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The truth is, few in Kennedy&rsquo;s coalition of anti-war, medical freedom, and free-speech advocates against the D.C. power structure would have felt highly motivated to turn out for either of the major party alternatives if RFK Jr. had simply withdrawn from the race. The fact that Kennedy not only endorsed Trump but indicated that he would likely be taking a role in policy and personnel decisions in another Trump administration gives his supporters the opportunity to cast a vote for his agenda rather than for Donald Trump, about whom they are unenthusiastic at best. With Kennedy actively campaigning for Trump and making the case that a Harris-Walz administration would be catastrophic on every issue they care about means it is highly likely they will turn out for Bobby rather than stay at home, even if they are too embarrassed to tell pollsters or acquaintances that they are voting for Orange Man Bad.<\/p>\n<p>Each part of this coalition &mdash; those opposing the foreign policy control of the military-industrial complex, those concerned about the chronic health epidemic, those gravely troubled by the continuing assaults on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/walz-no-free-speech-guarantee-if-dems-dislike-what-you-say\/\" title=\"Walz: No Free Speech Guarantee If Dems Dislike What You Say\">free speech &#038;mdash<\/a>; is highly informed and highly motivated on their issues. Most of them feel they have no voice in the current system and no leverage in the current power structure. RFK Jr. may have just changed that calculus.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the more perceptive pollsters acknowledged after their historic miss in 2016 that they simply weren&rsquo;t picking up on the hidden voters, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/bernie-sanders-trump-2016-election-654320\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">anti-establishment Bernie Bros<\/a> and right-wing hippies who saw a vote for Trump as their opportunity to give a giant middle finger to the establishment that had left them and the issues they cared about behind. Many of them were mightily disillusioned by Trump&rsquo;s inability to drain the swamp in his first term. That coalition, the least likely of all to show up in polling data, has once again been activated.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>      Brian Robertson served for over a decade in the U.S. Senate as a senior policy advisor for the Joint Economic Committee and for Sen. Sam Brownback. He worked for the Trump administration at both HHS and the Department of State.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The general agreement among pollsters and commentators from various political backgrounds following RFK Jr.&#8217;s unexpected endorsement of Donald Trump was that it would likely have minimal impact on the election results. However, this consensus raises the question of whether it reflects a similar groupthink that overlooked Trump&#8217;s surprising success in 2016. The Wall Street Journal&#8217;s editorial board cautioned that while Kennedy&#8217;s support might provide Trump with a slight advantage in key states, it could come at a significant cost if it leads to Kennedy being included in a second Trump administration. They concluded that Trump&#8217;s best course of action would be to express gratitude for RFK Jr.&#8217;s endorsement without making any commitments about the future and to avoid joint campaign events to steer clear of being associated with Kennedy&#8217;s controversial views.<\/p>\n<p>ABC News&#8217; 538 polling site reassured readers that their analysis indicated Kennedy\u2019s endorsement would have little effect on the race. Since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee, Kennedy has consistently polled around 5 percent, drawing support fairly evenly from both Trump and Harris; thus, his exit is expected to have only a minor impact on either candidate\u2019s overall backing.<\/p>\n<p>The New York Times also suggested that this endorsement is unlikely to alter the dynamics of the race significantly because it&#8217;s uncertain how many of Kennedy\u2019s supporters will actually vote in November. Many are less likely than others to have participated in the 2020 election and are similarly hesitant about voting this time around.<\/p>\n<p>What these conventional assessments overlook is reminiscent of what shocked political analysts in 2016 when Trump exceeded polling expectations by large margins due to mobilizing disenchanted voters who shared a common disdain for establishment politics. <\/p>\n<p>Kennedy&#8217;s supporters likely represent more than just the 5 percent reflected in recent polls after major party establishments and corporate media sidelined his campaign. Prior polls indicated nearly one-quarter of voters supported him before he was excluded from presidential debates despite meeting established criteria; he had even stronger backing among younger demographics. Historically, Ross Perot garnered 19 percent of votes during his campaign largely due to his debate performances; thus, many assumed RFK Jr.\u2019s support would dwindle without access to such platforms which lend credibility.<\/p>\n<p>In reality, many within Kennedy\u2019s coalition\u2014comprising anti-war advocates, medical freedom supporters, and free-speech defenders against Washington power\u2014would not feel compelled enough to vote for either major party candidate if he withdrew from contention entirely. However, since he endorsed Trump and suggested involvement in policy-making should another Trump administration arise, his followers now see an opportunity not just for supporting Donald Trump but also advancing their own agenda through him\u2014a prospect they find more appealing than simply abstaining or reluctantly voting for someone they don\u2019t truly back.<\/p>\n<p>Kennedy actively campaigning for Trump while arguing against what he perceives as disastrous policies under a potential Harris-Walz administration increases chances that these voters will show up at polls rather than stay home\u2014even if they hesitate to admit their choice publicly due to stigma surrounding Trump&#8217;s image.<\/p>\n<p>Each faction within this coalition\u2014those opposing military-industrial complex influence over foreign policy; those alarmed by ongoing health crises; those concerned about threats against free speech\u2014is well-informed and motivated regarding their issues but often feels voiceless within current systems or powerless against existing power structures. RFK Jr.\u2019s actions may very well shift this dynamic.<\/p>\n<p>Some insightful pollsters recognized after misjudging voter sentiment during Trump&#8217;s initial run that they failed adequately account for hidden voters\u2014the anti-establishment Bernie Bros alongside right-leaning progressives who viewed voting for him as an act defiance toward an establishment neglectful towards them and their concerns. Many were left disillusioned by Trump&#8217;s inability during his first term fulfill promises like &#8220;draining the swamp.&#8221; This coalition\u2014the least visible segment reflected through traditional polling methods\u2014has been reactivated once again.<\/p>\n<p>Brian Robertson served over ten years as senior policy advisor on economic matters within U.S Senate committees including work under Senator Sam Brownback along with roles held during service under HHS &amp; Department State throughout Donald Trump&#8217;s presidency<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3405,"featured_media":2335499,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Robert-F.-Kennedy-Jr.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[34059,39905,32458,36096,3634],"class_list":["post-2335498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-election-2024","tag-political-coalition","tag-rfk-jr","tag-swing-voters","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Robert-F.-Kennedy-Jr.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2335498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3405"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2335498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2335498\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2335499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2335498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2335498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2335498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}