{"id":2333812,"date":"2024-08-29T18:36:01","date_gmt":"2024-08-29T22:36:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/advanced-model-shows-trump-leading-for-first-time-in-weeks-this-wasnt-a-good-day-for-kamala-harris\/"},"modified":"2024-08-29T18:38:52","modified_gmt":"2024-08-29T22:38:52","slug":"advanced-model-shows-trump-leading-for-first-time-in-weeks-this-wasnt-a-good-day-for-kamala-harris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/advanced-model-shows-trump-leading-for-first-time-in-weeks-this-wasnt-a-good-day-for-kamala-harris\/","title":{"rendered":"Advanced Model Shows Trump Leading for First Time in Weeks: &#8216;This Wasn\u2019t a Good Day for Kamala Harris&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">36<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fadvanced-model-shows-trump-leading-for-first-time-in-weeks-this-wasnt-a-good-day-for-kamala-harris%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2333812&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-panicking-as-third-party-threatens-bidens-hold-on-state-he-barely-won-in-2020\/\" title=\"Democrats in a frenzy as third party jeopardizes Biden&#039;s grip on narrowly won state.\">current political \u200clandscape<\/a> regarding the\u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/desantis-appears-to-be-a-popular-lead-for-2024-straw-poll-shows\/\" title=\"DeSantis Appears To Be A Popular Lead For 2024, Straw Poll Shows\">upcoming 2024 presidential election<\/a>, highlighting the challenges\u200b faced by Democrats following President \u2063Joe \u2062Biden&#8217;s unexpected withdrawal from the race.\u200d It suggests\u200c that Biden&#8217;s \u2062retreat, possibly influenced by \u2063party \u2062elites, initially created\u2064 a\u2064 surge of support for Vice President Kamala Harris, making the election appear more\u200b competitive \u2064against former President\u200c Donald Trump. However, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-weve-crunched-the-numbers-midterms-may-look-really-bad-for-joe-biden\/\" title=\"ANALYSIS: We\u2019ve Crunched The Numbers. Midterms May Look Really Bad For Joe Biden\">recent polling trends<\/a> have indicated a shift, with \u200dTrump&#8217;s chances improving and Harris struggling in key\u2062 states like Pennsylvania. \u2062Polling expert Nate Silver warns that while fluctuations in poll numbers are normal, there are \u2062signs\u2063 indicating that Harris&#8217;s earlier momentum may be \u200dfading. \u200dThe overall sentiment is that despite media hype and endorsements, many Americans prioritize stability and prosperity, viewing Trump as a viable candidate\u200d for\u200b meeting those needs.\u200b The article underscores the unpredictable \u2063nature of the upcoming election.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> <script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_0)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_1)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>The luster has worn off, the shininess has faded and the honeymoon appears to be over.<\/p>\n<p>And Democrats can&rsquo;t be thrilled with that.<\/p>\n<p>The 2024 November general election took a sharp turn back in late July when President Joe Biden abruptly shelved his re-election bid &mdash; most likely at the behest of Democrat elites like former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi &mdash; following a widely panned <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/ratings-trump-biden-debate-mean\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">presidential debate<\/a> performance.<\/p>\n<p>(Former President Donald Trump certainly thinks the odd circumstances surrounding Biden&rsquo;s abrupt withdrawal amounted to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/kamala-harris-steal-nomination-biden-scary-election-scenario-reality-according-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a coup<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>Whatever the truth of the matter is, for a while, at least, the swip-swap of Biden with his current vice president resulted in some apparent momentum for the Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>  <script> \t\t\t\tif( ! getCookie( 'ff_subbed' ) ) if( typeof FFADS.replace_ict !='undefined' ) if( FFADS.replace_ict ) eval( FFADS.replace_ict ); \t\t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>Vice President Kamala Harris, simply by virtue of&nbsp;<em>not&nbsp;<\/em>being Joe Biden, appeared to ride a wave of excitement and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/legally-problematic-us-olympic-basketball-coach-endorses-kamala-harris-performing-official-duties\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">celebrity endorsements<\/a> to suddenly make what looked like a lopsided Trump-Biden election into a competitive Trump-Harris election.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, Real Clear Politics&rsquo; recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">polling<\/a> found Harris with a 1.6 percent advantage over Trump.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s a far cry from a slam-dunk for Dems, but it&rsquo;s worlds better than the way Biden was polling.<\/p>\n<p>One small (major?) problem with all that giddiness?<\/p>\n<p>It appears to have largely died down already, just days after the Democratic National Convention.<\/p>\n<p>On Thursday, noted polling expert and statistician Nate Silver published a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">newsletter<\/a> that bluntly dealt some bad news to Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;[T]his wasn&rsquo;t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3,&rdquo; Silver&rsquo;s update read.<\/p>\n<p>Silver and fellow researcher Eli McKown-Dawson identified Pennsylvania as a likely cause of this sudden reversal for Trump, as Harris has struggled mightily in the Keystone State.<\/p>\n<p>Silver and Dawson did temper expectations a bit. While this is undoubtedly good news for Trump (and yet another sign that all of Harris&rsquo; &ldquo;momentum&rdquo; has largely been manufactured by the establishment media shills), the newsletter made it clear that it&rsquo;s still anyone&rsquo;s race to win.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;[W]e wouldn&rsquo;t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52\/48 race one way versus a 48\/52 race the other way,&rdquo; the two noted.<\/p>\n<p>They did add, however, that there are still cracks showing under Harris&rsquo; facade, no matter what &ldquo;the vibes&rdquo; may feel like.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College\/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along,&rdquo; the newsletter noted. &ldquo;There&rsquo;s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>As far as who they think will win it all, it&rsquo;s completely up in the air.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Well, honestly, we don&rsquo;t know,&rdquo; the two admitted, &ldquo;but we can give you our best probabilistic guess.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Their model contains the most <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-the-left-is-shocked-about-what-these-hispanic-poll-numbers-say-about-biden-2024\/\" title=\"ANALYSIS: The Left Is Shocked About What These Hispanic Poll Numbers Say About Biden 2024\">recent polling data<\/a> and &ldquo;is the direct descendant of the &hellip; FiveThirtyEight election forecast and the methodology is largely the same,&rdquo; according to the report.<\/p>\n<p>The Silver Bulletin polling model adjusts for &ldquo;whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of RFK Jr., and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Gathering data in that fashion &ldquo;requires a few extra CPU cycles &mdash; but the reward is a more stable average that doesn&rsquo;t get psyched out by outliers,&rdquo; the report concluded.<\/p>\n<p>This recent bit of good news for Trump &mdash; and Harris&rsquo; continuing struggles with the electoral map part of the election &mdash; is a stark reminder that the influence of the establishment media and Democrat apparatchiks only goes so far.<\/p>\n<p>There are countless Americans who are not terminally online or watching the news, and thus are not constantly being bombarded by media propaganda. All that gussied-up hype and excitement doesn&rsquo;t mean much if people aren&rsquo;t exposed to it.<\/p>\n<p>Many Americans just want peace, quiet, prosperity and to largely be left alone.<\/p>\n<p>Trump represents their best shot at that life, and no amount of cheerleading from the media, celebrities or Barack Obama will change that fact.<\/p>\n<p>Nate Silver&rsquo;s latest numbers prove it.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> <label>* Name<\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> <\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> <label>* <\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> <\/div>\n<p> <label>* Message<\/label> <br \/> <textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea>  <\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> <input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\">  <\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script>  <\/div>\n<p>   <script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> <\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The initial excitement has diminished, and the enthusiasm seems to have faded for Democrats. The 2024 general election took a significant turn in late July when President Joe Biden unexpectedly paused his re-election campaign\u2014likely influenced by prominent Democratic figures such as former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi\u2014following a poorly received debate performance. Former President Donald Trump has suggested that the unusual circumstances surrounding Biden&#8217;s sudden withdrawal resembled a coup. Regardless of the actual situation, there was a brief period where Biden&#8217;s swap with Vice President Kamala Harris generated some momentum for the Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>Harris, simply by not being Biden, seemed to gain traction through excitement and celebrity endorsements, transforming what appeared to be an easy Trump-Biden matchup into a more competitive Trump-Harris race. Recent polling from Real Clear Politics indicated that Harris had a slight edge over Trump at 1.6 percent\u2014a significant improvement compared to Biden\u2019s numbers. However, this surge in enthusiasm appears to have quickly dissipated just days after the Democratic National Convention.<\/p>\n<p>Polling expert Nate Silver recently shared concerning news for Democrats: \u201cThis wasn\u2019t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model,\u201d indicating that Trump is now slightly favored for the first time since early August. Silver and researcher Eli McKown-Dawson pointed out Pennsylvania as a likely factor behind this shift since Harris has faced challenges there. While this development is positive news for Trump\u2014and suggests that much of Harris&#8217; earlier momentum may have been exaggerated by media coverage\u2014the researchers emphasized that it remains an open contest.<\/p>\n<p>They advised against overreacting to narrow margins like 52\/48 versus 48\/52 but acknowledged ongoing vulnerabilities in Harris\u2019 campaign despite any perceived positivity around her candidacy. Their analysis revealed concerns about widening gaps between Electoral College votes and popular support; currently estimating only a 17 percent chance she could win the popular vote while losing in the Electoral College.<\/p>\n<p>As far as predicting who will ultimately prevail, they admitted uncertainty but promised their best probabilistic assessment based on recent polling data using methods similar to those employed by FiveThirtyEight\u2019s election forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>This latest favorable data for Trump\u2014and ongoing difficulties faced by Harris on key electoral fronts\u2014serves as a reminder of how limited media influence can be among many Americans who are not constantly engaged with online or televised news narratives filled with political hype. Many citizens prioritize peace, prosperity, and autonomy over political drama; thus far favoring Trump&#8217;s representation of those values regardless of media endorsements or celebrity support<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2333813,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Trump-vs-Harris-new-poll-model.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[32431,32438,15698,3634],"class_list":["post-2333812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-2024-election","tag-kamala-harris","tag-polling","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Trump-vs-Harris-new-poll-model.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2333812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2333812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2333812\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2333813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2333812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2333812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2333812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}