{"id":2329895,"date":"2024-08-23T09:54:02","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T13:54:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democratic-pollsters-voice-skepticism-over-harris-surge-in-polls-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-08-23T09:57:51","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T13:57:51","slug":"democratic-pollsters-voice-skepticism-over-harris-surge-in-polls-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democratic-pollsters-voice-skepticism-over-harris-surge-in-polls-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Democratic pollsters voice skepticism over Harris surge in polls &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fdemocratic-pollsters-voice-skepticism-over-harris-surge-in-polls-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2329895&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Democratic pollsters are expressing \u2063caution \u2062regarding the\u200c recent surge in Vice President Kamala Harris\u2019s approval ratings. Although \u200bthere is rising enthusiasm \u200dwithin \u200cthe Democratic Party following President\u200b Joe Biden\u2019s\u2064 withdrawal from the \u2062presidential race, \u200dpollsters are wary of making overly optimistic predictions based on these polling trends. GBAO Strategies \u200dpartner Margie Omero emphasized that the political landscape remains \u2062challenging, echoing sentiments \u200bshaped by previous\u200b polling inaccuracies\u2062 in 2016 and 2020, where outcomes diverged significantly from predictions. Nick Gourevitch, a \u2063partner at Global Strategy Group, noted that efforts have been made in analyzing\u2062 these\u2062 past errors to gain a better \u2064understanding, yet there remains a sense of uncertainty in the current environment.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Democratic pollsters voice skepticism over Harris surge in polls<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1736369\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Despite growing <a href=\"https:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Democratic\">Democratic<\/a> enthusiasm about Vice President <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Kamala Harris&rsquo;s<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/kash-patel-defends-trumps-decision-to-skip-rnc-debate\/\" title=\"Kash Patel supports Trump&#039;s choice to skip RNC debate.\">polling boost<\/a>, Democratic pollsters are urging caution about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/what-are-the-lessons-china-is-taking-from-the-ukraine-war\/\" title=\"What Are the Lessons China Is Taking From the Ukraine War?\">overly optimistic assumptions<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>After President <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a> announced he was dropping out of the presidential race in July, Harris took his place and saw an almost immediate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/harris-honeymoon-polling-gives-her-a-boost-in-every-swing-state-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Harris honeymoon polling gives her a boost in every swing state - Washington Examiner\">honeymoon polling boost<\/a>, a trend that has largely continued. However, wary of past polling miscalculations, Democratic pollsters are sounding the alarm on the growing optimism within the Democratic Party.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s still a very tough race, and that feels consistent with everything we know,&rdquo; Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies partner Margie Omero <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/08\/22\/democrat-pollsters-kamala-harris-00176065\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"told\">told<\/a> <em>Politico<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Democratic pollsters are still shaken over faulty polling in 2016 and 2020, in which former President Donald Trump significantly overperformed what pollsters projected. They have spent the previous four years trying to figure out the error.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;I spent a ton of time and analysis trying to dig into those problems. And I feel much better educated about those problems,&rdquo; said Nick Gourevitch, a partner at Global Strategy Group and a driving force behind the post-2020 Democratic polling autopsy. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t think there&rsquo;s any pollster in America who can sit here and say &hellip; that they&rsquo;re 100% sure that they fixed any issues in polling. I think that would be silly.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Every year, we&rsquo;ve had different curveballs. This is a difficult industry,&rdquo; said John Anzalone, who was the lead pollster on Biden&rsquo;s 2020 campaign. &ldquo;Something&rsquo;s gonna happen in 2024. You and I, right now, don&rsquo;t know what that is.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The attitudes of Democratic pollsters are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3130800\/harris-campaign-chairwoman-election-toss-up\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"similar\">similar<\/a> to that of Jen O&rsquo;Malley Dillon, the chairwoman of the Harris campaign. At the CNN-POLITICO Grill in Chicago, she gave a similar analysis of the overconfidence of Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We don&rsquo;t have it,&rdquo; she said when asked if she had identified a clear path to victory. &ldquo;We are a polarized nation in a challenging time, and despite all the things that are happening in this country, Donald Trump still has more support than he has had at any other point. &hellip; It is going to come down to every single vote.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1736369\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1736369\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Democratic pollsters express doubts about Harris&#8217;s rise in the polls. While there is increasing enthusiasm among Democrats regarding Vice President Kamala Harris&#8217;s polling increase, experts are advising against overly optimistic expectations. Following President Joe Biden&#8217;s announcement of his withdrawal from the presidential race in July, Harris stepped in and experienced a quick surge in polling numbers, a trend that has largely persisted. However, due to previous miscalculations in polling outcomes, Democratic pollsters are cautioning against the growing optimism within the party. Margie Omero, a partner at GBAO Strategies, stated to Politico that &#8220;it&#8217;s still a very tough race,&#8221; which aligns with their understanding of the situation. Pollsters remain wary after experiencing significant discrepancies between predictions and actual results during the 2016 and 2020 elections when former President Donald Trump outperformed expectations. Nick Gourevitch from Global Strategy Group emphasized that no pollster can confidently claim they have resolved past issues with polling accuracy. John Anzalone, who led Biden\u2019s 2020 campaign polling efforts, noted that unexpected challenges arise every election cycle and something unforeseen will likely occur in 2024. This sentiment mirrors that of Jen O&#8217;Malley Dillon, chairwoman of Harris\u2019s campaign; she acknowledged at an event that there is no clear path to victory for Democrats given the current polarized climate and Trump&#8217;s sustained support among voters\u2014underscoring that every vote will be crucial<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2653,"featured_media":2329896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/kamala-harris-democrats-party-over.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[39070,4021,15638,8703,4395],"class_list":["post-2329895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-democratic-pollsters","tag-harris","tag-polls","tag-skepticism","tag-surge"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/kamala-harris-democrats-party-over.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2329895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2653"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2329895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2329895\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2329896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2329895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2329895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2329895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}