{"id":2325949,"date":"2024-08-17T12:57:59","date_gmt":"2024-08-17T16:57:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/election-wagers-provide-insight-into-results-but-face-big-threat-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-08-17T13:08:04","modified_gmt":"2024-08-17T17:08:04","slug":"election-wagers-provide-insight-into-results-but-face-big-threat-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/election-wagers-provide-insight-into-results-but-face-big-threat-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Election wagers provide insight into results, but face big threat &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Felection-wagers-provide-insight-into-results-but-face-big-threat-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2325949&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article from the Washington Examiner discusses the increasing interest in election betting markets \u200dfollowing \u2062President \u2064Joe Biden&#8217;s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. With \u2062over $5 million\u200b wagered on the election thus far,\u200d bettors are looking \u2064to these markets for insights into potential \u200boutcomes \u2062rather than relying solely on \u2062traditional polling methods. However, \u2063this rise in betting has raised regulatory \u200bconcerns, prompting the federal \u2064government\u2064 to consider restrictions to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/dissent-in-wi-ballot-drop-box-victory-highlights-much-bigger-issue-our-top-jurists-dont-care-about-election-integrity\/\" title=\"Dissent In WI Ballot Drop Box Victory Highlights Much Bigger Issue: Our Top Jurists Don\u2019t Care About Election Integrity\">prevent undue influence<\/a> on election \u200bresults. \u2063 <\/p>\n<p>Senator Jeff Merkley expressed worries about the potential for corruption, \u2062where individuals might \u200dinvest significant\u200c sums to manipulate public perception of candidates. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)\u2063 has\u200d previously attempted to halt election betting activities,\u200d exemplified by their actions against PredictIt and a denied application from KalshiEx for election-related \u2062futures contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, according to data \u200daggregated by Election Betting Odds, Vice \u2062President Kamala Harris \u2063is currently seen \u200cas the frontrunner with a 52.9% chance of winning, while former President Donald \u200cTrump follows with a 45.2% chance. In\u200d contrast, other candidates \u2062like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Nikki Haley, and Michelle Obama have notably\u2063 lower odds despite not being\u2064 confirmed candidates.\u200b CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam has highlighted that betting on elections risks compromising the integrity of the \u2063democratic process and has suggested the need for better\u2062 regulatory oversight to prevent fraud and manipulation related to election betting.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Wanna bet? Election wagers provide key insight into results, face regulatory threat<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1732421\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>After President <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a> dropped out of the 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/presidential\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>presidential<\/a> race, many have looked to the betting markets for insight on who is teetering toward victory, as opposed to relying on traditional <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polls\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>polls<\/a>. The federal government is trying to restrict election betting over concerns about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/chatgpt-displays-a-significant-systematic-liberal-bias-danger-of-influencing-election-results-say-researchers\/\" title=\"Researchers warn that ChatGPT exhibits a notable and consistent liberal bias, posing a risk of influencing election outcomes.\">influencing election results<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Over $5 million has been wagered on the 2024 election, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Election Betting Odds<\/a>. The site, run by Maxim Lott and John Stossel, uses data from the largest exchanges offering election futures contracts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;To me, it is enormous corruption,&rdquo; Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) said. He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2024\/08\/17\/election-betting-ban-us-cftc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>warned<\/a> that malicious actors could someday decide, &ldquo;Hey, I will spend millions of dollars smearing some candidate to make sure the candidate I bet on wins.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Two years ago, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved to halt election betting on PredictIt. The nonprofit organization has been able to continue operating during the legal battle. Regulators also rejected an application from KalshiEx, which would have allowed bettors to &ldquo;invest&rdquo; up to $100 million in party control of Congress futures contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Instead of placing a regular wager like one might place at a sports book, &ldquo;investors&rdquo; buy futures shares of their predicted outcome, and can sell or trade their shares similar to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/credit-suisse-unease-sparks-fresh-selloff-in-world-stocks\/\" title=\"Credit Suisse unease sparks fresh selloff in world stocks\">stocks futures<\/a>. The volume of 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/exclusive-read-the-memo-provided-to-vp-pence-noting-that-he-has-the-opportunity-to-save-the-country\/\" title=\"EXCLUSIVE: Read the Memo Provided to VP Pence Noting that He Has the Opportunity to Save the Country\">presidential election winner<\/a> trades at Smarkets alone <a href=\"https:\/\/smarkets.com\/event\/41938283\/politics\/us\/2024-presidential-election\/2024-presidential-election-winner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>exceeds<\/a> $7 million.<\/p>\n<p>Vice President Kamala Harris, 52.9%, has the highest chance of winning the presidency, according to aggregated data from Election Betting Odds. The model gives Former President Donald Trump a 45.2% chance to win in November.<\/p>\n<p>Despite polling better than most third-party candidates in recent elections, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 0.4%, has the fifth-highest odds of occupying the White House. Former South Carolina Gov. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/Nikki-Haley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Nikki Haley<\/a>, 0.6%, and former first lady Michelle Obama, 0.5%, both have a higher probability despite not being on the ballot.<\/p>\n<p>CFTC chairman Rostin Behnam has pursued regulation to ban betting on election outcomes on commercial exchanges as long as the regulatory agency oversees such transactions. The CFTC does not have the capability to serve as an election watchdog or to monitor markets for fraud and manipulation, according to Behnam.<\/p>\n<p>Benham&rsquo;s fear is that betting on elections would &ldquo;ultimately commoditize and degrade the integrity of the uniquely American experience of participating in the democratic electoral process,&rdquo; while giving the CFTC the &ldquo;role of an election cop.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> reached out to the CFTC to inquire if there are any plans to hand off the regulatory responsibility to an agency more equipped to play the &ldquo;election cop&rdquo; role.<\/p>\n<p>Since JFK did it in 1960, only one betting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportsoddshistory.com\/other\/potus-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>underdog<\/a> has won the presidential election: Trump in 2016. Kennedy was only a slight underdog, at +110 odds, while Trump&rsquo;s win despite his +375 odds being the second longest in history for a U.S. presidential election winner. Truman&rsquo;s +1500 odds place it as the most unlikely electoral victory since at least 1872.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Polls have been less reliable than betting odds at predicting election results, as there is more variation and polls have inaccurately predicted victories for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gallup.com\/poll\/158519\/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Romney<\/a> in 2012, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2016\/trump-vs-clinton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Clinton<\/a> in 2016, and inaccurately predicted a <a href=\"https:\/\/poll.qu.edu\/florida\/release-detail?ReleaseID=3683\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>blowout<\/a> for Biden in 2020 as opposed to a modest win.<\/p>\n<p>Harris&rsquo;s win probability decreased by 0.9 points in the last 24 hours, according to the Election Betting Odds model, while Trump&rsquo;s increased by 1.1 points.<\/p>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1732421\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1732421\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>**Wanna bet? Election wagers offer crucial insights into outcomes, face regulatory challenges**<\/p>\n<p>Following President Joe Biden&#8217;s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, many are turning to betting markets for clues about potential winners instead of relying on conventional polls. However, the federal government is seeking to limit election betting due to concerns about its impact on election results. According to Election Betting Odds, over $5 million has already been wagered on the upcoming election. This platform, managed by Maxim Lott and John Stossel, utilizes data from major exchanges that provide election futures contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) expressed his concerns about potential corruption in this system, suggesting that bad actors might invest heavily in discrediting candidates to ensure their preferred candidate wins. Two years ago, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) attempted to stop election betting on PredictIt; however, this nonprofit has continued operating amid ongoing legal disputes. Additionally, regulators turned down an application from KalshiEx that would have allowed bettors to &#8220;invest&#8221; up to $100 million in futures contracts related to party control of Congress.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike traditional bets placed at sportsbooks, &#8220;investors&#8221; purchase shares based on their predicted outcomes and can trade these shares like stock futures. The trading volume for predicting the winner of the 2024 presidential election at Smarkets alone surpasses $7 million. Current aggregated data from Election Betting Odds indicates Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 52.9% chance of winning the presidency while former President Donald Trump is given a 45.2% chance for November&#8217;s elections.<\/p>\n<p>Despite performing better than most third-party candidates recently, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with only a 0.4% chance according to odds calculations, ranks fifth among potential occupants of the White House\u2014lower than former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (0.6%) and former First Lady Michelle Obama (0.5%), both not officially running.<\/p>\n<p>CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam advocates for regulations banning betting on electoral outcomes within commercial exchanges as long as his agency oversees such activities; he argues that they lack resources necessary for monitoring fraud or manipulation in elections effectively.<\/p>\n<p>Behnam fears that allowing betting could undermine and commoditize America&#8217;s democratic process while placing undue responsibility on CFTC as an &#8220;election cop.&#8221; The Washington Examiner reached out regarding any plans for transferring regulatory duties to an agency more suited for overseeing electoral integrity.<\/p>\n<p>Since John F. Kennedy\u2019s narrow victory in 1960 against slight odds (+110), only one underdog has won a presidential race: Trump in 2016 with +375 odds\u2014the second longest shot ever recorded after Truman\u2019s +1500 odds victory since at least 1872.<\/p>\n<p>Historically speaking, polls have proven less reliable than betting markets when forecasting electoral results; they have often mispredicted victories such as Romney&#8217;s loss in 2012 or Clinton&#8217;s defeat in 2016 and inaccurately anticipated Biden\u2019s decisive win over Trump in 2020 instead of a narrower margin.<br \/>\nRecently reported figures show Harris\u2019 probability decreased by nearly one point within just one day while Trump&#8217;s increased by slightly over one point<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2670,"featured_media":2325950,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/kamala-harris-trump-donald.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[38392,38393,38391,37370,32076],"class_list":["post-2325949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-betting-markets","tag-election-outcomes","tag-election-wagers","tag-political-insights","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/kamala-harris-trump-donald.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2325949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2670"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2325949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2325949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2325950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2325949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2325949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2325949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}