{"id":2319815,"date":"2024-08-06T06:20:02","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T10:20:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/recession-would-pose-worst-case-scenario-for-harris-campaign-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-08-06T06:24:48","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T10:24:48","slug":"recession-would-pose-worst-case-scenario-for-harris-campaign-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/recession-would-pose-worst-case-scenario-for-harris-campaign-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession would pose worst-case scenario for Harris campaign &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Frecession-would-pose-worst-case-scenario-for-harris-campaign-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2319815&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses\u200b the potential risks facing Vice President \u200dKamala Harris&#8217;s campaign \u2062due\u2063 to the\u200b possibility of an economic recession, \u2064which has\u2064 gained increasing concern among economists. Although \u200cmost\u2064 experts still consider \u200da\u200c recession\u2063 unlikely, recent negative economic indicators, such as a disappointing \u2063employment report and significant stock market declines, have raised alarms about the stability of the economy. Republican \u2064consultant Jason Roe suggested that a sustained \u200ceconomic downturn \u2062would be detrimental to\u200c Harris&#8217;s political\u200b prospects.<\/p>\n<p>Wall \u200bStreet experienced\u2062 notable losses, with the Dow Jones dropping\u2063 over 1,000 points, and similar turmoil was observed\u2064 in the Japanese stock market. Economists, after\u2063 evaluating the latest employment \u200bdata, have\u2064 increased the likelihood of a \u200drecession, \u2064with Goldman\u200b Sachs raising its recession\u200c risk estimate to \u200d25%.\u2063 The article highlights the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator, which suggests the onset of\u200b economic decline.<\/p>\n<p>Concerns\u2062 over the\u200c Fed&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/bidenflation-feds-favorite-inflation-measure-soared-5-8-in-2021-worst-in-39-years\/\" title=\"Bidenflation: Fed&#039;s Favorite Inflation Measure Soared 5.8% in 2021, Worst in 39 Years\">interest rate policies<\/a> and their impact on investor confidence further complicate the economic landscape. Although no agency can officially declare a recession until months after it begins, the political implications for Harris are significant. Republicans \u200dare already \u200bframing\u200b her candidacy in relation to President Biden&#8217;s unpopular economic record. As the situation unfolds, Harris&#8217;s campaign faces the challenge of addressing\u200d these \u200deconomic fears, which could deeply influence voter sentiment.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Recession would pose <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/uk-may-ease-ccp-virus-lockdown-from-march-foreign-secretary-says\/\" title=\"UK May Ease CCP Virus Lockdown From March, Foreign Secretary Says\">worst-case scenario<\/a> for Harris campaign<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1722161\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>It would be a worst-case scenario for Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Kamala Harris<\/a> if the economy starts to fall into a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>recession<\/a>, a possibility that has recently received more attention.<\/p>\n<p>While most economists still think a recession is unlikely, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/3108202\/economy-added-114000-jobs-in-july-the-key-facts-and-figures\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>lackluster employment report<\/a> for July, which saw unemployment ticking up for the fourth month in a row, plus a massive stock sell-off on Monday is raising concerns that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>economy<\/a> may quickly turn south. Such a downturn would be a political bunker buster for the Harris campaign, which has gained steam in recent days.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;If this isn&rsquo;t just a blip and becomes a broader and more severe economic problem, I think it dooms Harris,&rdquo; Jason Roe, a veteran Republican consultant, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> on Monday.<\/p>\n<p>Wall Street and global markets suffered major losses Monday, with the Nasdaq plunging by the most in index history shortly after opening, although it recovered some by close. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down more than 1,000 points, or more than 2.5%, with most stocks in the red.<\/p>\n<p>The Japanese stock market, which is closely tied to U.S. and global companies, also crashed on Monday and notched its worst day since the 1987 Black Monday crash.<\/p>\n<p>Ahead of the Friday jobs report, many economists thought the United States was poised for a so-called soft landing, a scenario in which the Federal Reserve is able to bring down inflation successfully through holding interest rates high while preventing a big slowdown in the labor market.<\/p>\n<p>After the Friday jobs report, however, some economists are pointing out that the risk of a recession has gone up. Goldman Sachs <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-08-04\/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>bumped<\/a> the odds of a recession up to 25% from 15%.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Indeed, the latest batch of poor macro data sparking the prospect of a U.S. recession, combined with the lingering hawkish stance from the Fed, is discouraging investors from remaining long on riskier assets,&rdquo; Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades, said.<\/p>\n<p>The Friday jobs report triggered a major recession indicator, known as the Sahm Rule, which is when the three<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/home-builders-have-trouble-selling-properties-as-mortgage-rates-rise-prices-stay-elevated\/\" title=\"Home Builders Have Trouble Selling Properties As Mortgage Rates Rise, Prices Stay Elevated\">-month moving average<\/a> of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/economy-added-114000-jobs-in-july-the-key-facts-and-figures-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Economy added 114,000 jobs in July: The key facts and figures - Washington Examiner\">unemployment rate rises half<\/a> a percentage point relative to its minimum point over the past year. The Sahm Rule has signaled the start of all post-war recessions.<\/p>\n<p> <iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/2c52ef9c-8e58-4b70-8f66-5c5f859ac67f?src=embed\" title=\"Recession indicator\" width=\"800\" height=\"818\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"border:none;\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe> <\/p>\n<p>Thomas Mathews, a finance professor at Florida Gulf Coast University, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> on Monday that some voters might be looking at their portfolios and thinking, &ldquo;If this is the start of something that is going to be more protracted, then I need to rethink who I want in office.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The big question now is whether Monday&rsquo;s bloodbath for Wall Street is an outlier or just the start of worse times to come. Some investors, given the downturn, began betting that the Fed would hold a rare emergency meeting and vote to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/how-to-stop-inflation-from-hurting-americas-working-and-middle-class\/\" title=\"How To Stop Inflation From Hurting America\u2019s Working And Middle Class\">lower interest rates<\/a> before its next scheduled meeting in September.<\/p>\n<p>It is unclear how such a move would affect markets. On one hand, it would bring interest rates down, which investors favor. But on the other hand, it would be an acknowledgement that the central bank was wrong and could be seen as a sign of desperation or panic among top Fed officials, which could further spook the markets.<\/p>\n<p>Still, it is unlikely a recession will be declared before the election. There isn&rsquo;t a single government agency that has the authority to declare a recession. Instead, those in government and most economists look to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private group, to declare one.<\/p>\n<p>NBER defines a recession as &ldquo;a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months,&rdquo; although there has been a historical precedent of labeling two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth recessionary.<\/p>\n<p>But if things do get worse and it appears that the U.S. is heading in the direction of a recession, it is clear that it will damage Harris politically. Republicans are already working to tie her to President Joe Biden&rsquo;s economic legacy, which has gotten very low marks from voters.<\/p>\n<p>Harris received a pop in the polls after Biden announced he was bowing out and would endorse her. Roe, the campaign consultant, said that while Harris&rsquo;s rollout has been &ldquo;flawless,&rdquo; it now faces the prospect of &ldquo;running head-smack into the economic realities of the Biden economic policies.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>As of Monday, Harris is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>up slightly<\/a> in a <em>RealClearPolitics<\/em> aggregate of five-way polling that includes her, former President Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy, and two other minor candidates.<\/p>\n<p>Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> that the odds of a recession are growing &mdash; bad news for Harris.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The risk is really very high,&rdquo; he said, &ldquo;because it&rsquo;s not just the employment numbers; it&rsquo;s also a question that the stock market is tanking. And global markets are really very weak. There&rsquo;s a huge amount of uncertainty, you&rsquo;ve got all of the geopolitical risk &mdash; all of that makes a recession fairly likely.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;For Kamala Harris, this is really bad news because it will make it very difficult for her to argue that the economy is doing just fine under the Biden administration,&rdquo; Lachman added.<\/p>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1722161\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1722161\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A recession would represent a dire situation for Vice President Kamala Harris&#8217;s campaign, especially as the economy shows signs of potential decline. Although many economists still consider a recession improbable, recent disappointing employment figures for July\u2014marking the fourth consecutive month of rising unemployment\u2014along with a significant stock market drop on Monday, have raised alarms about an economic downturn. Such a scenario could severely impact Harris&#8217;s campaign momentum, which had been gaining traction recently. Jason Roe, an experienced Republican consultant, remarked to the Washington Examiner that if this economic issue escalates beyond a temporary setback, it could spell disaster for Harris.<\/p>\n<p>On Monday, Wall Street and global markets experienced substantial losses; the Nasdaq saw its largest drop in history shortly after opening but managed to recover somewhat by closing time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,000 points (more than 2.5%), with most stocks declining in value. The Japanese stock market also faced significant losses on Monday\u2014the worst since the infamous Black Monday crash of 1987.<\/p>\n<p>Before Friday\u2019s jobs report was released, many economists believed that the U.S. was heading towards a &#8220;soft landing,&#8221; where inflation could be controlled through sustained high interest rates without causing major job losses in the labor market. However, following Friday\u2019s report indicating rising unemployment risks leading to recession have increased; Goldman Sachs raised its recession probability estimate from 15% to 25%. Pierre Veyret from ActivTrades noted that poor macroeconomic data combined with ongoing hawkish Federal Reserve policies is discouraging investors from holding onto riskier assets.<\/p>\n<p>The Friday jobs report also triggered an important recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule\u2014a signal that has historically marked all post-war recessions when there is a notable increase in unemployment rates over three months compared to their lowest point within the past year.<\/p>\n<p>Thomas Mathews from Florida Gulf Coast University suggested some voters might reconsider their support based on their financial situations if they perceive worsening economic conditions ahead. The critical question now is whether Monday&#8217;s drastic market decline is an anomaly or indicative of more challenging times ahead.<\/p>\n<p>In light of these developments, some investors began speculating about an emergency meeting by the Fed to potentially lower interest rates before its next scheduled meeting in September; however, it&#8217;s uncertain how such action would influence markets positively or negatively.<\/p>\n<p>While it seems unlikely that any official declaration of recession will occur before elections\u2014since no single government entity can declare one\u2014the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) typically makes such determinations based on criteria like prolonged declines in economic activity across various sectors.<\/p>\n<p>If conditions worsen and suggestive signs point toward impending recessionary trends emerge before election time, it would undoubtedly harm Harris politically as Republicans are already attempting to link her closely with President Joe Biden\u2019s unpopular economic record. Despite receiving a boost in polls after Biden endorsed her candidacy following his withdrawal from running again herself showing slight gains according to RealClearPolitics polling data against other candidates including Donald Trump and Robert F Kennedy Jr., experts warn increasing odds for potential recessions pose serious challenges ahead for her campaign strategy moving forward amidst growing uncertainty surrounding both domestic and global economies impacting voter sentiment significantly regarding leadership choices during turbulent times ahead!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2683,"featured_media":2319816,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/harris-recession-election.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[35844,5894,10069,32076,37297],"class_list":["post-2319815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-harris-campaign","tag-politics","tag-recession","tag-washington-examiner","tag-worst-case-scenario"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/harris-recession-election.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2319815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2683"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2319815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2319815\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2319816"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2319815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2319815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2319815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}