{"id":2318784,"date":"2024-08-03T19:09:01","date_gmt":"2024-08-03T23:09:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/alert-trump-still-dominating-but-harris-is-real-threat-in-new-polling-maga-cant-get-lazy\/"},"modified":"2024-08-03T19:11:05","modified_gmt":"2024-08-03T23:11:05","slug":"alert-trump-still-dominating-but-harris-is-real-threat-in-new-polling-maga-cant-get-lazy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/alert-trump-still-dominating-but-harris-is-real-threat-in-new-polling-maga-cant-get-lazy\/","title":{"rendered":"Alert: Trump Still Dominating but Harris Is Real Threat in New Polling &#8211; MAGA Can&#8217;t Get Lazy"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">34<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Falert-trump-still-dominating-but-harris-is-real-threat-in-new-polling-maga-cant-get-lazy%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2318784&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Nate\u2062 Silver, an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-working-class-gop-a-muddled-concept\/\" title=\"The Working-Class GOP: A Muddled Concept\">election analyst<\/a> and statistician, recently\u200d updated his election prediction model, \u200dshowing\u2063 that if President Trump faces Vice President Kamala Harris, the race \u200dis now considered a &#8220;toss-up.&#8221; Previously, Silver\u2019s model\u2062 indicated Trump had a significant advantage over President Biden. According\u2063 to\u2062 his latest analysis, Trump has a 54.9% chance of winning against Harris&#8217;s 44.6%, with a \u2064slight possibility of\u200c an Electoral College deadlock. Silver&#8217;s assessment also\u200b highlights Harris&#8217;s competitive \u2063chances in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-more-votes-than-voters-in-key-swing-states\/\" title=\"Trump: More Votes Than Voters in Key Swing States\">key <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/update-corrupted-software-that-stole-6000-votes-from-trump-in-michigan-county-shut-down-for-two-hours-in-red-counties-in-georgia-on-election-day\/\" title=\"Update: Corrupted Software that Stole 6,000 Votes From Trump in Michigan County -- Shut Down for TWO HOURS in Red Counties in Georgia on Election Day\">swing states<\/a><\/a> like Michigan and Wisconsin, suggesting she may \u2063be a stronger\u200d candidate against Trump than Biden.<\/p>\n<p>Despite Trump still \u200chaving the upper \u200bhand, the\u200b need for voter mobilization is emphasized, especially for\u2062 conservatives who oppose Harris. The article \u200bwarns against complacency, referencing the unexpected outcomes \u200dof the 2016 election, where strong polling predictions did not translate into actual results. Therefore, enthusiasm and participation in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/sidney-powell-is-an-american-legal-giant\/\" title=\"Sidney Powell Is an American Legal Giant\">electoral process<\/a> are \u200bcritical\u2062 in the lead-up\u2064 to the election.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> <script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Election analyst and statistician Nate Silver has released the latest results of his election prediction model.<\/p>\n<p>While his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-vaporware-summit\/\" title=\"The Vaporware Summit\">earlier model<\/a> for the election from June 26 had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/biden-accused-accommodating-iran-republicans-demand-change-course-israel\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">President Joe Biden<\/a> as a 2:1 underdog against former President Donald Trump, his latest one putting Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris is much closer.<\/p>\n<p>On Friday,the <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/08\/02\/us-news\/polling-guru-nate-silver-changes-his-prediction-from-trump-electoral-victory-to-toss-up\/?utm_campaign=nypost&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New York Post reported<\/a> on Silver&rsquo;s model from Thursday which shows that the election between Harris and Trump is now &ldquo;a toss-up.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Before sounding the alarms, let&rsquo;s understand what Silver means by that. By his definition, this means each candidate has at least a forty percent chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, Silver stated, &ldquo;As of this afternoon&rsquo;s model run, Harris&rsquo;s odds had improved to 44.6 percent, as compared to 54.9 percent for Trump and a 0.5 percent chance of an Electoral College deadlock. It&rsquo;s not exactly 50\/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a &lsquo;flip&rsquo;: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>  <script> \t\t\t\tif( ! getCookie( 'ff_subbed' ) ) if( typeof FFADS.replace_ict !='undefined' ) if( FFADS.replace_ict ) eval( FFADS.replace_ict ); \t\t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>Silver also put Harris&rsquo; odds in swing states well within striking distance. He put her at a fifty-four percent chance of winning Michigan, a forty-seven percent chance of winning Wisconsin, and put her even with Trump in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/just-trump-shooter-dead-bloody-disaster-pennsylvania-rally-da-confirms\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pennsylvania<\/a> &ndash; fifty-fifty.<\/p>\n<p>Taking Silver&rsquo;s model into consideration, the odds are still in Trump&rsquo;s favor, but MAGA cannot sit on the sidelines.<\/p>\n<p>There are two ways of looking at the polling as Harris appears a better candidate than Biden for the impending face-off with Trump. <\/p>\n<p>Firstly, the honeymoon phase of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/fact-check-kamala-harris-wears-62000-designer-necklace-begging-americans-money\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">her campaign<\/a> may very well come to an end as enthusiasm could level out and excitement for a &ndash; supposedly &ndash; fierce nominee devolves into a dull roar.<\/p>\n<p>The other side of that coin is that Harris continues to gain momentum, and the odds put her even closer to Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Conservatives who wish to never see Harris as president should &ndash; regardless &ndash; vote.<\/p>\n<p>We know that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/kamala-harris-hammered-disgusting-remarks-comparing-ice-kkk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">her entire career<\/a> as a public servant is an utter disgrace.<\/p>\n<p>We know she is unprincipled, unlikeable, and totally incompetent.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, we are sadly mistaken if we believe the average voter knows this too and will make the correct decision.<\/p>\n<p>We must vote. We must encourage our friends, neighbors, and families to vote.<\/p>\n<p>On November 9th, 2016, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2016\/11\/09\/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pew Research<\/a> reported that opinion polls and forecasters gave <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/hillary-clinton-replace-kamala-harris-saves-biden-according-wapo-columnist\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hillary Clinton<\/a>, &ldquo;anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%&rdquo; chance of defeating Trump.<\/p>\n<p>In the wake of that year&rsquo;s election, many Democrats sat stunned after months of indicators saying Clinton would prevail.<\/p>\n<p>Polls are but one piece of the puzzle, enthusiasm and energy must remain high in favor of shunning complacency when your candidate is up or depression whey they are down.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> <label>* Name<\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> <\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> <label>* <\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> <\/div>\n<p> <label>* Message<\/label> <br \/> <textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea>  <\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> <input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\">  <\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script>  <\/div>\n<p>   <script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> <\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Election analyst and statistician Nate Silver has unveiled the most recent findings from his election prediction model. In his previous model from June 26, he indicated that President Joe Biden was a 2:1 underdog against former President Donald Trump. However, in his latest analysis comparing Trump to Vice President Kamala Harris, the race appears much tighter. According to a report by the New York Post on Friday, Silver&#8217;s Thursday model suggests that the contest between Harris and Trump is now considered &#8220;a toss-up.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>Before jumping to conclusions, it&#8217;s important to clarify what Silver means by this term. He defines it as each candidate having at least a forty percent chance of winning. Specifically, he noted that as of his latest model run, Harris&#8217;s odds have risen to 44.6 percent compared to Trump&#8217;s 54.9 percent and a slim 0.5 percent chance of an Electoral College tie. While it&#8217;s not exactly even odds, it&#8217;s close enough for it to be described as a &#8220;flip,&#8221; with Democrats holding ace-king suited and Republicans having pocket jacks.<\/p>\n<p>Silver also highlighted Harris&#8217;s chances in key swing states where she is within reach: she has a fifty-four percent likelihood of winning Michigan, a forty-seven percent chance in Wisconsin, and is tied with Trump at fifty-fifty in Pennsylvania. Although Trump&#8217;s chances still appear stronger overall according to Silver\u2019s model, supporters cannot afford complacency.<\/p>\n<p>There are two perspectives on polling data regarding Harris being potentially more formidable than Biden against Trump in their upcoming matchup. On one hand, her initial campaign enthusiasm might wane over time as excitement for her candidacy diminishes into something less fervent; on the other hand, she could continue building momentum which would bring her even closer to Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Conservatives who oppose seeing Harris become president should definitely make their voices heard through voting\u2014despite acknowledging her controversial record as a public servant marked by unprincipled actions and incompetence\u2014because we may be mistaken if we think average voters share this view or will make informed choices.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s crucial for us all to vote and motivate our friends and family members to do so too. Reflecting back on November 9th, 2016\u2014when Pew Research reported that opinion polls gave Hillary Clinton anywhere from a 70% up to nearly a certainty (99%) chance of defeating Trump\u2014it serves as an important reminder about how misleading polls can be; many Democrats were left shocked after months of predictions favoring Clinton turned out wrong.<\/p>\n<p>Polls are just one aspect; maintaining high levels of enthusiasm is essential rather than succumbing either complacently when ahead or despondently when behind<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2318785,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Picture-86.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[4021,5656,15698,3634],"class_list":["post-2318784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-harris","tag-maga","tag-polling","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Picture-86.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2318784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2318784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2318784\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2318785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2318784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2318784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2318784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}