{"id":2318639,"date":"2024-08-03T11:29:56","date_gmt":"2024-08-03T15:29:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/stocks-plummet-following-california-us-job-report-triggers-recession-indicator-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-08-03T11:34:43","modified_gmt":"2024-08-03T15:34:43","slug":"stocks-plummet-following-california-us-job-report-triggers-recession-indicator-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/stocks-plummet-following-california-us-job-report-triggers-recession-indicator-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks plummet: Following California, US job report triggers recession indicator &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fstocks-plummet-following-california-us-job-report-triggers-recession-indicator-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2318639&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses a significant decline in U.S. stock markets and the triggering of\u2064 a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-pitches-largest-tax-increase-in-history\/\" title=\"Biden Pitches Largest Tax Increase in History\">recession indicator<\/a>, coinciding with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/weekly-unemployment-figures-see-another-surprise-uptick\/\" title=\"Weekly Unemployment Figures See Another Surprise Uptick\">unemployment data released<\/a> on August 2. The\u2062 unemployment\u200c rate rose from\u2062 4.1% in June\u200d to 4.3%\u200d in July, suggesting a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/lol-ny-times-argues-inflation-will-be-somehow-worse-with-republicans-retaking-congress\/\" title=\"Lol: NY Times Argues Inflation Will Be Somehow Worse With Republicans Retaking Congress\">cooling job market<\/a> during the summer. This increase\u2062 in unemployment has activated the Sahmn Recession\u2062 Indicator, which signals a potential recession when the\u200d three-month moving average of the \u2063unemployment rate increases by 0.5 \u2062percentage points or more \u200bcompared to its lowest point in the past year. This warning sign \u2062follows California&#8217;s earlier indication of economic \u2063downturn, contributing to widespread recession fears and \u200ba\u200c major\u2062 stock selloff, marking the largest drop since December 2022.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Stocks plummet: Following California, US job report triggers recession indicator<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1722153\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>(The Center Square) &ndash; The United States triggered a highly accurate recession indicator as recession fears led to the largest stock selloff since December 2022. California, the nation&rsquo;s largest economy, triggered the same indicator in late 2023.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On the morning of August 2, the United States published unemployment data for July showing a sharp increase from 4.1% in June to 4.3% as hiring cooled during the typically busy summer months. With July&rsquo;s data, the United States triggered the Sahmn Recession Indicator, which identifies the start of a recession when the &ldquo;three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The indicator has had &ldquo;no false positives&rdquo; and accurately indicated the last six U.S. recessions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>California&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecentersquare.com\/california\/article_112d9fd0-9085-11ee-9818-27f66abde8e6.html\">triggered<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;the Sahm Recession Indicator in March 2023, pushing the state into fiscal emergency as private jobs declined and public sector and public-supported jobs grew. With $46.8 billion cut, shifted, or delayed to balance the 2024-2025 budget, California has little fiscal leeway to increase spending to lessen the blow of a recession.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As of June 18, the Congressional Budget Office&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/60039\">estimates<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;the United States federal government will have a $1.9 trillion budget deficit for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, around which the federal debt will reach 100% of American gross domestic product. This estimate relies on 2% economic growth in 2024 and 2025 that eventually declines to 1.8% in 2026 and beyond. Should the economy grow more slowly or contract due to a recession, deficits would grow further in the absence of higher taxes and\/or lower spending.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>By fiscal year 2025-2026, the CBO projects interest on the national debt will exceed $1 trillion.<\/p>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1722153\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1722153\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stocks take a nosedive: US job report signals recession risk (The Center Square) \u2013 A reliable recession indicator was activated in the United States, leading to the most significant stock market decline since December 2022 amid growing recession concerns. California, the largest state economy, also triggered this indicator in late 2023. On August 2, unemployment data for July revealed a notable rise from 4.1% in June to 4.3%, reflecting a slowdown in hiring during the typically busy summer season. This data prompted the activation of the Sahm Recession Indicator, which indicates a recession when the \u201cthree-month moving average of unemployment increases by at least 0.5 percentage points compared to its lowest point over the past year.\u201d This indicator has accurately predicted all six recent U.S. recessions without any false alarms. California activated it back in March 2023 as private sector jobs fell while public and publicly supported jobs increased, leading to a fiscal emergency with $46.8 billion cut or delayed from its budget for 2024-2025\u2014leaving little room for increased spending to mitigate potential recession impacts. As of June 18, estimates from the Congressional Budget Office suggest that federal government deficits will reach $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2024-2025 and that national debt will hit around 100% of GDP based on projected economic growth rates of about 2% for those years before declining further in subsequent years. If economic growth slows or contracts due to a recession, deficits could widen unless taxes are raised or spending is reduced; by fiscal year 2025-2026, interest payments on national debt are expected to surpass $1 trillion<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2318640,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/printing-money-spending.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[4045,37089,10069,10467,37088],"class_list":["post-2318639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-california","tag-economic-indicators","tag-recession","tag-stocks","tag-us-job-report"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/printing-money-spending.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2318639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2318639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2318639\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2318640"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2318639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2318639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2318639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}