{"id":2318272,"date":"2024-08-02T13:58:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-02T17:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-victory-goes-from-sure-thing-to-toss-up-in-major-poll-reversal-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-08-02T14:00:54","modified_gmt":"2024-08-02T18:00:54","slug":"trump-victory-goes-from-sure-thing-to-toss-up-in-major-poll-reversal-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-victory-goes-from-sure-thing-to-toss-up-in-major-poll-reversal-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump victory goes from sure thing to \u2018toss-up\u2019 in major poll reversal &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftrump-victory-goes-from-sure-thing-to-toss-up-in-major-poll-reversal-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2318272&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>A recent analysis by elections expert \u2063Nate Silver indicates that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/donalds-doubts-house-speaker-feud-will-hurt-gop-in-2024-were-gonna-get-past-this\/\" title=\"Trump doesn&#039;t think House speaker feud will harm GOP in 2024: &#039;We&#039;ll move on&#039;.\">upcoming\u200c presidential\u2062 election<\/a> between former President Donald Trump and Vice President\u2062 Kamala Harris has shifted from \u2064a predicted assured victory for Trump to a &#8220;toss-up.&#8221; Initially, Silver&#8217;s model suggested Trump had a 66% chance of winning against President\u200b Biden. However, following Biden&#8217;s decision to nominate Harris as his successor, Silver \u2063revised the odds, placing Trump \u2064at 54.9% and Harris at\u200c 44.6%. This change \u200creflects a narrowing margin that makes the\u2064 race more competitive. Silver cautioned\u2064 Democrats not to become overly confident, as the current polling might represent only a temporary spike in enthusiasm for Harris, emphasizing that the \u200b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/top-ranking-democrat-defends-menendez-over-corruption-charges-trumps-charges-equally-serious\/\" title=\"Top Democrat defends Menendez against corruption charges, says Trump&#039;s charges are just as serious.\">election remains uncertain<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Trump victory goes from sure thing to &lsquo;toss-up&rsquo; in major poll reversal<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1720017\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a> is no longer guaranteed a victory against Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Kamala Harris<\/a> this November, according to a major <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polls\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>polling<\/a> guru.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>After President Joe Biden passed the Democratic torch to Harris earlier this month, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/nate-silver\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Nate Silver<\/a>, an acclaimed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/poll-democratic-nevada-sen-catherine-cortez-masto-neck-and-neck-with-gop-challenger\/\" title=\"POLL: Democratic Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto Neck And Neck With GOP Challenger\">elections analyst<\/a> and statistician, released an election model predicting Trump would clinch an Electoral College win on Nov. 5 against the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/hunter-biden-defector-emails-pipeline-to-obama-admin-seen-as-currency\/\" title=\"Hunter Biden Defector Emails: &#039;Pipeline&#039; to Obama Admin Seen as &#039;Currency&#039;\">vice president<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This week, the pollster backtracked his prediction. <\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The presidential election is a toss-up,&rdquo; Silver <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/the-presidential-election-is-a-toss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>said<\/a> in a press release to his Substack blog <em>Silver Bulletin<\/em> on Thursday afternoon.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;As of this afternoon&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/jeff-bezos-issues-stark-warning-about-the-economy-batten-down-the-hatches\/\" title=\"Jeff Bezos Issues Stark Warning About the Economy: \u201cBatten Down the Hatches\u201d\">model run<\/a>, Harris&rsquo;s odds had improved to 44.6%, as compared to 54.9% for Trump and a 0.5% chance of an Electoral College deadlock,&rdquo; Silver wrote.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not exactly 50\/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a &lsquo;flip&rsquo;: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks,&rdquo; he continued.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Silver&rsquo;s 54.9% odds for Trump are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3060363\/nate-silver-trump-66-chance-winning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>down<\/a> from the former president&rsquo;s 66% chances of winning the election in June when he was campaigning against Biden.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver sits on the stairs at Allegro hotel in downtown Chicago, Friday, Nov. 9, 2012. (AP Photo\/Nam Y. Huh)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While Silver said Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than her boss did, the pollster warned Democrats that the election is far from decided.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Democrats shouldn&rsquo;t get too out over their skis about this,&rdquo; Silver said on Substack. <\/p>\n<p>He added the new polling could simply be &ldquo;Harris&rsquo;s high-water mark,&rdquo; reflecting only &ldquo;a temporary surge of Democratic enthusiasm.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Really pressed for time today, but wrote up a little thing on the state of the race.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zZoq36hlrj\">https:\/\/t.co\/zZoq36hlrj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/1819088601176854707?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 1, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script> <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Silver believes that with &ldquo;the election [in] Kamala-mode,&rdquo; it continues to be &ldquo;far from clear whose position you&rsquo;d rather be in, and I wouldn&rsquo;t blame you if you wanted to bet either on Harris or on Trump.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The creator of <em>FiveThirtyEight, <\/em>a prominent polling organization, Silver gained recognition for successfully predicting 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. He also accurately forecasted former President Barack Obama&rsquo;s victory over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 2012.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p> <script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1720017\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1720017\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump&#8217;s victory shifts from a certainty to a &#8216;toss-up&#8217; in significant polling change<\/p>\n<p>Former President Donald Trump is no longer assured of winning against Vice President Kamala Harris this November, as indicated by a prominent polling expert. Following President Joe Biden&#8217;s recent endorsement of Harris as the Democratic nominee, Nate Silver, a well-known elections analyst and statistician, initially projected that Trump would secure an Electoral College victory on November 5. However, this week he revised his forecast. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The presidential election is now considered a toss-up,&#8221; Silver stated in a press release on his Substack blog, Silver Bulletin. &#8220;As of today\u2019s model update, Harris\u2019s chances have risen to 44.6%, compared to Trump\u2019s 54.9%, with only a 0.5% likelihood of an Electoral College tie,&#8221; he explained further. &#8220;While it isn&#8217;t exactly even odds, it&#8217;s close enough that one might call it a &#8216;flip&#8217;: Democrats hold ace-king suited while Republicans have pocket jacks.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>Silver noted that Trump&#8217;s probability has decreased from the 66% chance he had in June when running against Biden. Although he acknowledged that Harris has better odds than Biden did against Trump, Silver cautioned Democrats not to become overly confident about the outcome: &#8220;Democrats shouldn\u2019t get too ahead of themselves regarding this,&#8221; he advised on Substack.<\/p>\n<p>He suggested that the current polling might represent &#8220;Harris&#8217;s high-water mark,&#8221; indicating merely &#8220;a temporary spike in Democratic enthusiasm.&#8221; Despite being pressed for time today, Silver shared insights about the race&#8217;s status via Twitter.<\/p>\n<p>Silver believes that with \u201cthe election [in] Kamala-mode,\u201d it remains unclear which candidate holds the advantageous position: \u201cI wouldn\u2019t fault you for wanting to place your bet either on Harris or on Trump.\u201d As the founder of FiveThirtyEight\u2014a leading polling organization\u2014Silver gained fame for accurately predicting 49 out of 50 states during the 2008 presidential election and successfully forecasting Barack Obama\u2019s win over Mitt Romney in 2012<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3142,"featured_media":2318273,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Trump-knocks-Harris.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[3728,5894,15638,3634,7621],"class_list":["post-2318272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-election","tag-politics","tag-polls","tag-trump","tag-victory"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Trump-knocks-Harris.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2318272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3142"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2318272"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2318272\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2318273"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2318272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2318272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2318272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}