{"id":2316829,"date":"2024-07-31T15:06:01","date_gmt":"2024-07-31T19:06:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/top-pollster-updates-election-forecast-after-predicting-trump-will-bury-harris-its-not-good-for-harris\/"},"modified":"2024-07-31T15:09:40","modified_gmt":"2024-07-31T19:09:40","slug":"top-pollster-updates-election-forecast-after-predicting-trump-will-bury-harris-its-not-good-for-harris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/top-pollster-updates-election-forecast-after-predicting-trump-will-bury-harris-its-not-good-for-harris\/","title":{"rendered":"Top Pollster Updates Election Forecast After Predicting Trump Will Bury Harris &#8211; It\u2019s Not Good for Harris"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">34<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftop-pollster-updates-election-forecast-after-predicting-trump-will-bury-harris-its-not-good-for-harris%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2316829&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>A recent election forecast by \u200cNate Silver of FiveThirtyEight indicates that former President Donald Trump has a significant advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in \u2063a potential matchup, with Trump having a 61.3% chance of victory compared to Harris&#8217;s 38.1%. Although Harris has seen a slight improvement in her odds, gaining a 4.4% \u200cboost,\u2063 she still faces a challenging \u2063uphill battle. In comparison, President Joe Biden&#8217;s odds against Trump were even lower\u200d at 26.9%. While Harris may outperform Biden, the forecast highlights a critical \u200dissue:\u200d the importance \u200dof the Electoral College, which ultimately \u2063determines the election \u2064outcome. Despite \u2063her current position as the presumptive Democratic nominee,\u200d continued poor polling could lead Democrats to reconsider their options \u2062ahead of the November election.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> <script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>One of the nation&rsquo;s top pollsters has updated his election forecast model showing former President Donald Trump&rsquo;s high probability of victory against Vice President Kamala Harris, but it doesn&rsquo;t come as particularly good news for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight, published the first updated model in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/election-expert-identifies-brutal-problem-kamala-weighs-leads-trump-harris-matchup\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a newsletter Tuesday<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-top-5-senate-races-to-watch-on-election-night\/\" title=\"The Top 5 Senate Races to Watch on Election Night\">model showed<\/a> that Harris has a lot of work to do if she wants to take the White House in November, placing her chances of winning at a paltry 38.1 percent &mdash; double digits below Trump&rsquo;s own chances of winning.<\/p>\n<p>Silver&rsquo;s forecast showed Trump had a 61.3 percent chance of victory.<\/p>\n<p>Highlighting the constant state of change, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/new-poll-sounds-alarm-democrats-deep-blue-state-gop-eyes-senate-seat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Silver<\/a> updated his model again on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>  <script> \t\t\t\tif( ! getCookie( 'ff_subbed' ) ) if( typeof FFADS.replace_ict !='undefined' ) if( FFADS.replace_ict ) eval( FFADS.replace_ict ); \t\t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>The new findings give Harris a &ldquo;big uptick,&rdquo; with a 4.4 percent boost over the forecast released earlier in the week. While the gap has slightly closed, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/hunter-biden-defector-emails-pipeline-to-obama-admin-seen-as-currency\/\" title=\"Hunter Biden Defector Emails: &#039;Pipeline&#039; to Obama Admin Seen as &#039;Currency&#039;\">vice president<\/a> still has a large deficit to reverse before November.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Big uptick for Harris today on quite a bit of new polling.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vsGVG189Sa\">https:\/\/t.co\/vsGVG189Sa<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8GhbRR4559\">pic.twitter.com\/8GhbRR4559<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/1818659822452998309?\">July 31, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/start-your-day-with-the-washington-examiner-rnc-day-2-lingering-questions-and-democrats-behind-the-scenes-efforts\/\" title=\"Start your day with the Washington Examiner: RNC Day 2, lingering questions, and Democrats&#039; behind-the-scenes efforts\">news isn&#038;rsquo<\/a>;t all bad for Harris &mdash; at least she&rsquo;s doing better than her boss.<\/p>\n<p>Previous forecast models of Silver&rsquo;s predicted President Joe Biden only had a 26.9 percent chance of beating Trump in the upcoming election, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/kamala-harris-vs-donald-trump-nate-silver-election-forecast-1932580\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Newsweek<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>While the updated model still has Trump as the likely favorite, the margin appears to be much slimmer on a granular level.<\/p>\n<p>The popular vote, though virtually useless in a contest decided by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/dem-devastation-trump-now-69-chance-winning-electoral-college-november\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Electoral College<\/a>, is predicted to go to Harris. Trump is predicted as having only a 46.5 percent chance to sweep this vote.<\/p>\n<p>In the national polls, Harris is only a few fractions of a percentage point away from Trump.<\/p>\n<p>But as Nate Silver noted, Harris has one major problem: &ldquo;It&rsquo;s the Electoral College.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>What is decided by these hundreds of electors is, ultimately, the vote that decides who holds the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/biden-goes-viral-looking-half-asleep-mumbling-brutal-oval-office-video\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">most powerful office in the world<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats are not stuck with Harris, and continued bad polling may force them to reconsider.<\/p>\n<p>Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee, but her candidacy is not officially locked in yet. Although she has no official challengers from within the party, there are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/kamala-isnt-locked-yet-5-dark-horse-candidates-knock-one-incredibly-dangerous\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">plenty of potential candidates<\/a> who would leap at the chance at power.<\/p>\n<p>What she brings to the table for Democrats&rsquo; 2024 ambitions may simply not be enough to keep her at the top of the party&rsquo;s ticket.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> <label>* Name<\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> <\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> <label>* <\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> <\/div>\n<p> <label>* Message<\/label> <br \/> <textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea>  <\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> <input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\">  <\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script>  <\/div>\n<p>   <script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> <\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the leading pollsters in the country has revised his election forecast model, indicating a strong likelihood of former President Donald Trump winning against Vice President Kamala Harris. However, this update is not particularly encouraging for Democrats. Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight released the initial updated model in a newsletter on Tuesday, revealing that Harris faces significant challenges if she aims to secure the White House in November, with her chances of winning estimated at just 38.1 percent\u2014substantially lower than Trump&#8217;s 61.3 percent probability of victory.<\/p>\n<p>Silver&#8217;s forecast was updated again on Wednesday to reflect ongoing changes, showing a slight improvement for Harris with a 4.4 percent increase compared to earlier predictions this week. Despite this minor progress, she still has considerable ground to cover before November.<\/p>\n<p>While there are some positive signs for Harris\u2014she is performing better than President Joe Biden according to previous forecasts that suggested he had only a 26.9 percent chance against Trump\u2014the overall outlook remains challenging as Trump continues to be favored in most scenarios.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of popular vote predictions\u2014which hold limited significance due to the Electoral College system\u2014Harris is expected to perform slightly better than Trump, who has only a 46.5 percent chance of winning that vote.<\/p>\n<p>National polls show Harris trailing closely behind Trump by mere fractions; however, as Silver pointed out, her main obstacle lies within the Electoral College system itself\u2014the ultimate decider of who occupies the presidency.<\/p>\n<p>Although Harris is currently viewed as the presumptive Democratic nominee without any official challengers from within her party at this time, there are numerous potential candidates eager for an opportunity should polling trends continue negatively for her campaign. Her appeal and contributions toward achieving Democratic goals in 2024 may not be sufficient enough to guarantee her position at the forefront of their ticket<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2316830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Kamala-Harris-14.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[3728,16788,4021,15698,3634],"class_list":["post-2316829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-election","tag-forecast","tag-harris","tag-polling","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Kamala-Harris-14.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2316829","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2316829"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2316829\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2316830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2316829"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2316829"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2316829"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}