{"id":2316743,"date":"2024-07-31T13:35:58","date_gmt":"2024-07-31T17:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/election-expert-identifies-brutal-problem-for-kamala-weighs-in-on-who-leads-in-trump-harris-matchup\/"},"modified":"2024-07-31T13:41:29","modified_gmt":"2024-07-31T17:41:29","slug":"election-expert-identifies-brutal-problem-for-kamala-weighs-in-on-who-leads-in-trump-harris-matchup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/election-expert-identifies-brutal-problem-for-kamala-weighs-in-on-who-leads-in-trump-harris-matchup\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Expert Identifies Brutal Problem for Kamala, Weighs in on Who Leads in Trump-Harris Matchup"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Felection-expert-identifies-brutal-problem-for-kamala-weighs-in-on-who-leads-in-trump-harris-matchup%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2316743&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Statistician Nate Silver\u2064 predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to lose the upcoming election\u2064 against former President Donald Trump, despite her having \u2062a slight edge in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nothing-about-this-election-seems-to-add-up-the-liberty-loft\/\" title=\"Nothing about this election seems to add up | The Liberty Loft\">popular vote<\/a>. According \u2062to Silver&#8217;s analysis, Trump has a 61.3% chance of\u2062 winning the Electoral \u200bCollege while Harris stands at 38.1%. This forecast suggests Trump could secure\u200d 280 Electoral College votes to\u200b Harris&#8217;s 257. Silver\u2062 emphasizes that while \u2063switching Biden for Harris has improved Democrats&#8217; chances,\u200b she remains an underdog in the Electoral College, leading to a potential repeat of the popular vote versus Electoral College split seen in past elections. Despite positive media \u200dcoverage of Harris, her projected popularity margin over Trump is narrow, indicating a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/kari-lake-enters-bid-to-run-for-arizona-senate-seat\/\" title=\"Kari Lake joins race for Arizona Senate seat.\">competitive race ahead<\/a>. Silver \u200cmaintains a commitment to forecasting outcomes based on \u2064data, regardless of personal preferences for \u2064candidates.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> <script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_0)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Statistician Nate Silver, a self-proclaimed liberal who has repeatedly said he doesn&rsquo;t want former President Donald Trump to win, said Vice President Kamala Harris will likely lose in November.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Harris is in much better shape than Biden,&rdquo; Silver wrote Tuesday in his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/harris-trump-electoral-college\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/crystal-ball-shifts-virginia-governors-race-to-lean-republican-a-day-before-voters-head-to-the-polls\/\" title=\"Crystal Ball Shifts Virginia Governor\u2019s Race To \u2018Lean Republican\u2019 A Day Before Voters Head To The Polls\">election forecast<\/a><\/a>. &ldquo;But she has one big problem. It&rsquo;s the Electoral College.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The data analyst said while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/watch-john-kennedy-spars-fox-host-calls-kamala-harris-ding-dong-wild-segment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris<\/a> has a slight edge to win the popular vote, Trump has a bullish 61.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, Harris has a 38.1 percent chance of an Electoral College victory.<\/p>\n<p>Silver&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/reports-biden-white-house-preparing-for-coronavirus-tidal-wave-in-january\/\" title=\"Reports: Biden White House Preparing for Coronavirus Tidal Wave in January\">prediction model<\/a> has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/trump-responds-olympics-opening-ceremony-promises-different-display-2028-games-u-s\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trump<\/a> receiving 280 Electoral College votes versus 257 for his Democratic challenger.<\/p>\n<p>  <script> \t\t\t\tif( ! getCookie( 'ff_subbed' ) ) if( typeof FFADS.replace_ict !='undefined' ) if( FFADS.replace_ict ) eval( FFADS.replace_ict ); \t\t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Nate Silver has published his first election model update since the Kamala swap&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>&#128308; Trump &ndash; 61%<br \/> &#128309; Harris &ndash; 38%<\/p>\n<p>Harris is now favored in the popular vote but still an electoral college underdog.<\/p>\n<p>In my opinion, Nate is the best <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/establishment-polling-expert-nate-silver-makes-his-prediction-on-2024-election-isnt-a-toss-up\/\" title=\"Establishment Polling Expert Nate Silver Makes His Prediction on 2024 Election - &#039;Isn\u2019t a Toss-Up&#039;\">mainstream election forecaster<\/a> in the game. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EKXE220XrJ\">pic.twitter.com\/EKXE220XrJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Geiger_Capital\/status\/1818327913575411973?\">July 30, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Last month, Silver had estimated Trump&rsquo;s chances of victory <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/establishment-polling-expert-makes-prediction-2024-election-isnt-toss\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">at 65.7 percent<\/a> based on 40,000 simulations run through his statistical prediction model.<\/p>\n<p>While making his June <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/the-presidential-election-isnt-a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forecast<\/a>, Silver underscored that &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t want Trump to win the election, and I&rsquo;d never consider voting for him.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>However, he conceded: &ldquo;The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn&rsquo;t the candidate I&rsquo;d rather have win (Biden).&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Silver&rsquo;s latest forecast shows that while the Democrats&rsquo; gambit of switching out Biden for Harris helped, she&rsquo;s still on track to go down in flames.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Harris will give Democrats a fighting chance,&rdquo; Silver wrote. &ldquo;In fact, she&rsquo;s a slight favorite over Donald Trump in the popular vote, which Democrats have won in all but one election since 2000.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>He added: &ldquo;However, she&rsquo;s a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, risking a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>What&rsquo;s interesting is how small <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/kamalas-ancestor-notorious-slave-owner-resurfaced-family-discovery-ruin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris<\/a>&lsquo; projected margin of victory in the popular vote over Trump is: 53.5 percent versus 46.5 percent<\/p>\n<p>The meager 7-point margin is shocking, given the nonstop barrage of fawning media coverage of Harris, compared to the onslaught of negative coverage of Trump.<\/p>\n<p>While it may be useful to read forecasts, it&rsquo;s important to remember that polls and predictions don&rsquo;t win races &mdash; especially in July &mdash; but fair elections do.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">New Bombshells Are Coming Out About Georgia Election Fraud<\/p>\n<p>FLASHBACK: Nearly 400,000 ballot images are missing from the 2020 Presidential Election in Georgia<\/p>\n<p>Joe Biden won Georgia by only 11,779 votes<\/p>\n<p>Georgia could not duplicate Election Day results with their recount <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ME00vpwE9s\">pic.twitter.com\/ME00vpwE9s<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WallStreetApes\/status\/1818418119985234101?\">July 30, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">This should be on the front page of every newspaper!!!<\/p>\n<p>Election fraud<br \/> We have found out that only 2 Addresses were used for OVER 9000 Votes cast in 2020 in Georgia. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2lXymFmkgQ\">pic.twitter.com\/2lXymFmkgQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; JOSH DUNLAP (@JDunlap1974) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JDunlap1974\/status\/1806426079189442685?\">June 27, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Celebrating a positive poll result is like spiking the football because your team is ahead at halftime. It ain&rsquo;t over &rsquo;til it&rsquo;s over.<\/p>\n<p>As long the potential for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/secure-election-ever-21-2020-mail-voters-admit-participating-election-fraud-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">voter fraud<\/a> goes unchecked, election predictions don&rsquo;t amount to a hill of beans.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> <label>* Name<\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> <\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> <label>* <\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> <\/div>\n<p> <label>* Message<\/label> <br \/> <textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea>  <\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> <input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\">  <\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script>  <\/div>\n<p>   <script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> <\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Statistician Nate Silver, who identifies as a liberal and has openly expressed his desire for former President Donald Trump not to win, predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to face defeat in the upcoming November election. In his election forecast published on Tuesday, Silver noted that while Harris is in a better position than Biden, she faces a significant challenge: the Electoral College. He indicated that although Harris may have a slight advantage in the popular vote, Trump has a strong 61.3 percent probability of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris&#8217;s 38.1 percent chance. According to Silver&#8217;s model, Trump is projected to secure 280 Electoral College votes against Harris&#8217;s 257.<\/p>\n<p>Silver recently updated his election model following changes regarding Biden and Harris\u2019s candidacy. He stated that while Harris leads slightly in popular vote projections, she remains an underdog in terms of the Electoral College. Last month, he estimated Trump&#8217;s chances at 65.7 percent based on extensive simulations from his statistical model but reiterated his personal opposition to Trump as a candidate.<\/p>\n<p>Despite Democrats&#8217; strategy of replacing Biden with Harris appearing beneficial initially, Silver suggests it may not be enough for her victory come November. He acknowledged that while she offers Democrats some hope by being favored in the popular vote\u2014an area they have dominated since 2000\u2014she still risks losing due to her underdog status in the Electoral College.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, he pointed out how narrow her projected lead over Trump is: just 53.5 percent versus Trump&#8217;s 46.5 percent\u2014a mere seven-point margin despite favorable media coverage for her compared to negative portrayals of Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Silver cautioned readers about relying too heavily on forecasts and polls at this stage of the race since actual elections are determined by fair voting processes rather than predictions alone.<\/p>\n<p>In related news about potential electoral issues, there are claims regarding missing ballot images from Georgia\u2019s past elections and allegations of voter fraud involving only two addresses linked to over 9,000 votes cast during the last presidential election there\u2014issues which some believe should receive more media attention as they could impact future elections significantly<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2316744,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/trump-harris-2.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[32431,32319,3728,32438,33017],"class_list":["post-2316743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-2024-election","tag-donald-trump","tag-election","tag-kamala-harris","tag-political-analysis"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/trump-harris-2.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2316743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2316743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2316743\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2316744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2316743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2316743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2316743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}