{"id":2295550,"date":"2024-07-15T17:39:01","date_gmt":"2024-07-15T21:39:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/jd-vance-probably-doesnt-improve-trump-election-odds-much-but-he-wont-hurt-them-either-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-07-15T17:43:13","modified_gmt":"2024-07-15T21:43:13","slug":"jd-vance-probably-doesnt-improve-trump-election-odds-much-but-he-wont-hurt-them-either-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/jd-vance-probably-doesnt-improve-trump-election-odds-much-but-he-wont-hurt-them-either-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"JD Vance probably doesn\u2019t improve Trump election odds much, but he won\u2019t hurt them either &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">36<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fjd-vance-probably-doesnt-improve-trump-election-odds-much-but-he-wont-hurt-them-either-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2295550&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses Senator\u2063 J.D. \u2064Vance&#8217;s\u2063 emergence \u200bas the leading candidate for former \u200cPresident Donald Trump&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/kim-reynolds-declares-parents-matter-in-sotu-response-speech\/\" title=\"Kim Reynolds Declares &#039;Parents Matter&#039; in SOTU Response Speech\">2024 vice-presidential pick<\/a>. While Vance may not \u200csignificantly expand Trump&#8217;s electoral\u2062 map,\u2063 he is seen as a charismatic populist with broad appeal. The article highlights that historically, vice-presidential picks\u200d have\u2063 little influence on \u200dvoter preferences, and Vance&#8217;s \u200cselection may not sway opinions significantly. \u2062However, Vance&#8217;s intelligence and charisma, as well \u200cas his ability to address \u200csensitive \u2064issues such as\u2064 abortion with empathy, make him a noteworthy figure in\u200b national politics.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><br \/>\n<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\"><br \/>\n<?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><html><body><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><a class=\"tdb-logo-a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" title=\"Washington Examiner\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-img-wrap\"><\/span><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-wrap\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-title\">Washington Examiner<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\">\n<div class=\"tdb-search-form-inner\"><input class=\"tdb-head-search-form-input\" placeholder=\" \" type=\"text\" value name=\"s\" autocomplete=\"off\"><button class=\"wpb_button wpb_btn-inverse btn tdb-head-search-form-btn\" title=\"Search\" type=\"submit\"><span>Search<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><a class=\"tdb-logo-a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" title=\"Washington Examiner\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-img-wrap\"><\/span><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-wrap\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-title\">Washington Examiner<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">JD Vance probably doesn\u2019t improve Trump election odds much, but he won\u2019t hurt them either<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-author-name-wrap\"><span class=\"tdb-author-by\">By<\/span> <a class=\"tdb-author-name\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/author\/tiana-lowe-doescher\/\">Tiana Lowe Doescher<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><time class=\"entry-date updated td-module-date\" datetime=\"2024-07-15T17:10:43-04:00\">July 15, 2024 5:10 pm<\/time><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1703971\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>After weeks of de facto auditions on cable news and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/3081170\/attempt-to-murder-trump-is-actually-our-biggest-threat-to-democracy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>test runs at campaign rallies<\/a> around the country, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/jd-vance\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Sen. J.D. Vance<\/a> (R-OH) has emerged the victor of former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a>\u2018s 2024 vice presidential pick. <\/p>\n<p>It is true that Vance, 39, who has barely a year and a half in Congress under his belt, doesn\u2019t expand the former president\u2019s electoral map much, and the more limited-government-minded wing of the party has plenty of salient policy disagreements with the Yale Law grad-cum-venture capitalist. But Vance probably will not harm Trump\u2019s electoral prospects, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/beltway-confidential\/3072782\/media-invents-project-2025-story-distract-bidens-implosion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>his raw intelligence and charisma<\/a> render him a populist with a much broader appeal than some of his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/yale-law-journal-editor-apologizes-for-unwelcoming-culture\/\" title=\"Yale Law Journal Editor Apologizes For \u2018Unwelcoming Culture\u2019\">fellow travelers<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Historically speaking, vice presidential picks often do little to influence voter preferences, and if they do ever sway opinions, they tend to be net negative additions. A June Harvard\/Harris poll <a href=\"https:\/\/harvardharrispoll.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/HHP_June2024_KeyResults.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>found<\/a> that Trump choosing Vance would not change the opinion of more than two-thirds of the electorate, with just 20% of poll respondents saying they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he chose Vance and 12% saying they\u2019d be more likely. To beltway observers, it seems obvious that Vance is indeed a slightly more polarizing choice than Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), but according to the polling, Scott only has a seven-point edge over Vance\u2019s net sway.<\/p>\n<p>But the polling doesn\u2019t account for Trump\u2019s current posture in the campaign, which is reorienting around a theme of unity after the failed assassination attempt over the weekend, nor does it reconsider the possibility that Vance will prove adept at galvanizing a national audience, as he has already done in a much more mainstream settings that Senate politics.<\/p>\n<p>The memoir that catapulted Vance to national fame, <em>Hillbilly Elegy<\/em>, sold millions of copies, topping the <em>New York Times<\/em> bestseller and becoming a sort of Fodor\u2019s Travel Guide of rural Appalachia for wealthy white liberals who needed to rediscover how the over half lived after Trump won in 2016. It is the sort of uncommonly literary memoir that hasn\u2019t been published since a fellow aspiring political hopeful wrote the eventual blockbuster <em>Dreams From My Father<\/em>, and while critics pretended to hate Ron Howard\u2019s film adaptation of the memoir, the movie still scored multiple Academy Award nominations.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>But the real reason Vance has national staying power in a way most of his populist peers do not can be reflected in the empathy with which he has addressed the tinderbox of the abortion matter. Consider Vance\u2019s response to the massive pro-life ballot initiative loss in Ohio last year. His response doesn\u2019t feed his followers red meat or fact-free copium to distract from the reality that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/white-fright-cnns-chris-cuomo-suggests-pro-life-legislation-motivated-by-racism\/\" title=\"\u2018White Fright\u2019: CNN\u2019s Chris Cuomo Suggests Pro-Life Legislation Motivated By Racism\">pro-lifers<\/a> have repeatedly lost at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/breaking-ag-barr-authorizes-federal-prosecutors-to-pursue-substantial-allegations-of-voting-irregularities-before-2020-election-is-certified\/\" title=\"BREAKING: AG Barr Authorizes Federal Prosecutors to Pursue &quot;Substantial Allegations&quot; of Voting Irregularities Before 2020 Election is Certified\">ballot box<\/a> since <em>Dobbs<\/em>, nor does he devolve into the pedantic and preaching moralism spewed by the most insufferable of his peers.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">For pro lifers, last night was a gut punch. No sugar coating it. <\/p>\n<p>Giving up on the unborn is not an option. It&#8217;s politically dumb and morally repugnant. Instead, we need to understand why we lost this battle so we can win the war. <\/p>\n<p>I was very involved in the &#8220;no&#8221; campaign for\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JDVance1\/status\/1722311695140298978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 8, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script> <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>We\u2019ll see whether Trump and Vance focus on themes simply to enthuse the MAGA base as the Republican National Convention commences, and it\u2019s fully possible that President Joe Biden\u2019s precipitous drop in the polling means that Trump doesn\u2019t feel the need to appeal to the center. But contrary to some of the panic from my own laissez-faire wing of the conservative movement, I remain hopeful that Vance can prove a persuasive communicator and, even better, a purveyor of the empathy all too devoid of politics these days.<\/p>\n<p> <script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1703971\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1703971\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><a class=\"tdb-logo-a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" title=\"Washington Examiner\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-img-wrap\"><\/span><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-wrap\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-title\">Washington Examiner<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<p><\/body><\/html><\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>JD Vance has been chosen as Donald Trump&#8217;s 2024 vice presidential pick after a period of testing and auditions. While Vance may not significantly improve Trump&#8217;s chances of winning, he also is not expected to harm them. Despite some policy disagreements within the party, Vance&#8217;s intelligence and charisma make him a populist with broad appeal. Vice presidential picks historically have little impact on voter preferences, and Vance&#8217;s selection is not expected to change the opinions of most voters. Vance&#8217;s national fame, particularly from his memoir &#8220;Hillbilly Elegy,&#8221; and his empathetic approach to issues like abortion, set him apart from other populist figures. It remains to be seen how Trump and Vance will approach the upcoming campaign, but Vance&#8217;s ability to communicate persuasively and empathetically may be an asset<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2693,"featured_media":2295551,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/trump_vance_rust_belt.webp.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[34752,32082,5894,3634,32076],"class_list":["post-2295550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-election-odds","tag-jd-vance","tag-politics","tag-trump","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/trump_vance_rust_belt.webp.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2295550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2693"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2295550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2295550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2295551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2295550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2295550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2295550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}