{"id":2293332,"date":"2024-07-12T09:20:06","date_gmt":"2024-07-12T13:20:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ifo-self-analysis-finds-no-clear-bias-in-prediction-errors-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-07-12T09:25:17","modified_gmt":"2024-07-12T13:25:17","slug":"ifo-self-analysis-finds-no-clear-bias-in-prediction-errors-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ifo-self-analysis-finds-no-clear-bias-in-prediction-errors-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"IFO self-analysis finds \u2018no clear bias\u2019 in prediction errors &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fifo-self-analysis-finds-no-clear-bias-in-prediction-errors-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2293332&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The Independent Fiscal \u200dOffice conducted a self-analysis and found that its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/governor-proposes-teacher-raises-retention-bonuses\/\" title=\"Governor suggests increasing salaries and offering bonuses to retain teachers\">state revenue projections<\/a> were mostly \u2064accurate. In the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/desantis-says-biden-is-trying-to-make-excuses-for-his-low-approval-ratings\/\" title=\"DeSantis Says Biden Is \u2018Trying To Make Excuses\u2019 For His Low Approval Ratings\">fiscal year 2022-23<\/a>, there \u2063was\u200b a 6.1% difference from \u2064actual revenues, \u2062but in 2023-24, the \u200cdifference was only 0.6%. The pandemic made predictions more challenging, but the \u200dlast \u200bfiscal year was the closest\u2064 forecast since 2017-18.\u2064 The\u2063 IFO analysis highlighted that for four out\u200c of\u2064 twelve \u2064fiscal years, their estimates\u2064 were very\u200c close to actual revenues.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><br \/>\n<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\"><br \/>\n<?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><html><body><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><a class=\"tdb-logo-a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" title=\"Washington Examiner\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-img-wrap\"><\/span><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-wrap\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-title\">Washington Examiner<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\">\n<div class=\"tdb-search-form-inner\"><input class=\"tdb-head-search-form-input\" placeholder=\" \" type=\"text\" value name=\"s\" autocomplete=\"off\"><button class=\"wpb_button wpb_btn-inverse btn tdb-head-search-form-btn\" title=\"Search\" type=\"submit\"><span>Search<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><a class=\"tdb-logo-a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" title=\"Washington Examiner\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-img-wrap\"><\/span><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-wrap\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-title\">Washington Examiner<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">IFO self-analysis finds \u2018no clear bias\u2019 in prediction errors<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-author-name-wrap\"><span class=\"tdb-author-by\">By<\/span> <a class=\"tdb-author-name\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/author\/anthony-hennen-the-center-square-2\/\">Anthony Hennen | The Center Square<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><time class=\"entry-date updated td-module-date\" datetime=\"2024-07-12T08:07:34-04:00\">July 12, 2024 8:07 am<\/time><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1700474\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>(The Center Square) \u2014 In a self-review, the Independent Fiscal Office found its state revenue projections to be pretty spot-on. <\/p>\n<p>In fiscal year 2022-23, IFO estimates had a $2.7 billion (6.1%) difference from actual revenues \u2014 but 2023-24 was much closer, with only a $273 million (0.6%) difference from actual revenues.<\/p>\n<p>Difficulties from the pandemic had made predictions trickier, but the last fiscal year was the closest forecast since 2017-18.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor four of the twelve fiscal years, the IFO official estimate has been roughly within one-half percentage point of actual revenues,\u201d <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifo.state.pa.us\/download.cfm?file=Resources\/Documents\/Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdf\">the IFO analysis<\/a><\/strong> noted. \u201cIn those cases, revenues were slightly higher than projected \u2026 For the eight remaining years, the forecast error was split between over (three years) and underprediction (five years) errors.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Pandemic issues were due to policy choices, too.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThree massive waves of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/co-dems-move-to-censure-hickenlooper-for-voting-to-block-stimulus-checks-to-illegal-immigrants\/\" title=\"CO Dems Move to Censure Hickenlooper for Voting to Block Stimulus Checks to Illegal Immigrants\">federal stimulus<\/a> \u2026 drove demand, causing inflation to spike to the highest rate in four decades,\u201d the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-republican-led-states-ahead-of-democrat-led-states-in-economic-recovery-in-december\/\" title=\"Analysis: Republican-led States Ahead of Democrat-led States in Economic Recovery in December\">analysis noted<\/a>. \u201cMost of the federal stimulus was enacted during the fiscal year and was not included in the original forecast.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The pandemic errors, the IFO argued, \u201cgenerally do not provide insight regarding the underlying reliability of forecast models.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The evaluation lines up with the agency\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecentersquare.com\/pennsylvania\/article_6273b20c-4b36-11ed-92f2-979590943625.html\">last self-examination<\/a><\/strong> in 2022 when it found its predictions were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wikipediacan-put-anything-they-want-out-there-to-ruin-my-identity-mike-lindell-on-wikipedias-attempts-to-trash-his-good-name\/\" title=\"\u201cWikipedia\u2026Can Put Anything They Want Out There to Ruin My Identity\u201d \u2013 Mike Lindell on Wikipedia\u2019s Attempts to Trash His Good Name\">generally reliable<\/a>, but tended to be more cautious.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf the pandemic-impacted years are excluded, then there is no clear bias towards under or overprediction error,\u201d the analysis noted.<\/p>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1700474\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1700474\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><a class=\"tdb-logo-a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" title=\"Washington Examiner\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-img-wrap\"><\/span><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-wrap\"><span class=\"tdb-logo-text-title\">Washington Examiner<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<p><\/body><\/html><\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Independent Fiscal Office conducted a self-analysis and found that its state revenue projections were mostly accurate. Despite some discrepancies in previous fiscal years, the predictions for the most recent fiscal year were very close to actual revenues. The pandemic made forecasting more challenging, but the IFO&#8217;s analysis concluded that there was no clear bias in prediction errors. The agency attributed some errors to policy choices, such as federal stimulus packages that were not initially included in the forecasts. Overall, the evaluation indicated that the IFO&#8217;s forecast models were generally reliable, with no consistent tendency to over or underpredict revenues<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2293333,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/AP24037853666052.jpg.optimal.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[5050,34790,34792,34791,32076],"class_list":["post-2293332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-bias","tag-ifo","tag-prediction-errors","tag-self-analysis","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/AP24037853666052.jpg.optimal.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2293332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2293332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2293332\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2293333"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2293332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2293332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2293332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}