{"id":2291640,"date":"2024-07-10T03:39:01","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T07:39:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/keep-your-eye-on-montana-the-second-most-important-election\/"},"modified":"2024-07-10T03:41:23","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T07:41:23","slug":"keep-your-eye-on-montana-the-second-most-important-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/keep-your-eye-on-montana-the-second-most-important-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Keep Your Eye On Montana, The Second-Most Important Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fkeep-your-eye-on-montana-the-second-most-important-election%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2291640&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/desantis-responds-to-top-dem-governors-criticism-reminds-him-where-he-sent-his-family-during-covid\/\" title=\"DeSantis Responds to Top Dem Governor&#039;s Criticism, Reminds Him Where He Sent His Family During COVID\">upcoming presidential campaign<\/a> between Donald Trump and Joe Biden\u2064 will undoubtedly take center stage in\u2062 the media leading up to November 5th. However, the second most important outcome this fall may not be in Washington,\u200c but rather in the \u2062control of the House of Representatives and \u2062the Senate. Republicans could <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/slim-house-gop-majority-takes-a-hit-with-dem-winning-contest-to-replace-santos\/\" title=\"Democrat&#039;s victory in contest to replace Santos deals blow to slim House GOP majority\">potentially regain control<\/a> of the Senate by \u200bpicking up a seat in Montana, preventing unified Democrat control\u2063 of Washington in the future. In the House,\u2062 the balance of power \u200dis on a knife&#8217;s edge, with Democrats having \u2062more opportunities to retake \u200dcontrol. \u200bThe battle for Senate control\u200b appears more clear-cut, with Democrats needing to maintain control of the vice presidency to ensure majority. the outcomes of \u200dthe upcoming elections will have significant implications for the future governance of the United States.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The presidential campaign between Donald Trump and Joe Biden (or whatever functionary the Democrat Party will select to replace him) will obviously dominate media attention from now through Nov. 5. But arguably the second-most important outcome this fall lies far away from the media hordes in Washington.<\/p>\n<p>In theory, control of the House of Representatives could fall to either party, and in theory, Democrats could retain their narrow majority in the Senate. But not if Republicans pick up a Senate seat in Montana \u2014 the likeliest place where they can recapture the majority and prevent unified Democrat control of Washington next year.<\/p>\n<h2>House Control on a Knife Edge<\/h2>\n<p>At present, Republicans control the House of Representatives by a <a href=\"https:\/\/pressgallery.house.gov\/member-data\/party-breakdown\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">220-213 margin<\/a>, with two seats (one by each party) vacant. Under this math, a change in four seats would allow Democrats to retake control of the House by a 218-217 tally.<\/p>\n<p>Recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/ratings\/house-race-ratings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">political race rankings<\/a> make such a takeover possible, though not certain. Democrats and Republicans each have 11 seats listed as toss-ups, where neither party holds a distinct advantage. Democrats have more seats \u201cin play\u201d (39) than Republicans (30), meaning Republicans have more opportunities to pick up seats from the other party. However, Democrats are projected to take over two seats from Republicans (one in Alabama, one in New York) due to the effects of redistricting, meaning Democrats should theoretically have a head start on retaking the majority.<\/p>\n<p>While \u201cticket splitters\u201d \u2014 people who vote for one party for president and another for Congress \u2014 have become rarer in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/flashback-teacher-sues-school-board-after-being-fired-he-refused-to-compromise-on-trans-pronouns\/\" title=\"Flashback: Teacher Sues School Board After Being Fired \u2013 He Refused To Compromise on Trans Pronouns\">recent years<\/a>, the presidential campaign and the battle for the House could still look slightly different. For instance, Democrats hope to recapture seats in states like California and New York not likely to feature close contests at the presidential level.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans could win the presidency and lose the House. But at minimum, it seems safe to say that the party that wins the White House is not guaranteed to maintain a majority in the House of Representatives.<\/p>\n<h2>Senate Hinges on Montana <\/h2>\n<p>The fight for Senate control appears more clear-cut. With former Democrat, now-independent, Sen. Joe Manchin retiring from his West Virginia seat, Democrats have virtually ceded the seat to Republicans. That GOP pick-up would take Democrats\u2019 current 51-49 majority down to an even 50-50 split.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats could retain control of the Senate by the narrowest of margins if they maintain control of the vice presidency. That brings with it <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2024\/07\/03\/how-an-octogenarian-president-could-change-control-of-congress\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">potential complications for their congressional majorities<\/a> if Joe Biden remains president and suffers (further) health issues, but put that aside for the time being.<\/p>\n<p>To ensure themselves a majority not contingent upon the outcome of the presidential election, Republicans need to capture at least one more Senate seat beyond that in West Virginia. (They also need to hold on to all Republican seats up for election this year \u2014 a safe bet at present.)<\/p>\n<p>It sounds like an easy prospect, given that most Senate elections during this two-year cycle will take place in purple or red states: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/latest-polls\/senate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">most if not all of the polls<\/a> in those races show Democrats ahead, in many cases due to the power of incumbency.<\/p>\n<p>One exception defies the trend: Montana\u2019s U.S. Senate race, which pits Republican Tim Sheehy against Democrat Jon Tester, has not seen much recent polling, likely due to the state\u2019s rural nature. It also happens to be Republicans\u2019 second-best opportunity for a Senate pick-up after West Virginia. While Trump beat Biden by 8 points in Ohio in 2020, he clobbered Biden by more than twice that margin in Montana.<\/p>\n<h2>Republican Big Sky Dreams<\/h2>\n<p>Biden\u2019s dreadful performance in the recent presidential debate may have changed the campaign\u2019s dynamics. Some Republicans sense a potential blowout if Biden remains on the ticket, which has Democrats pondering whether to replace him and with whom \u2014 an unprecedented outcome with difficult-to-predict effects.<\/p>\n<p>But while the <em>dynamics<\/em> of the election may have changed, the <em>math<\/em> has not. If Republicans defeat Tester, they will have a working majority in the Senate. If they do not, Democrats could squeak through to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/even-with-full-control-of-government-democrats-massive-wish-list-is-stalling\/\" title=\"Even With Full Control Of Government, Democrats\u2019 Massive Wish List Is Stalling\">unified control<\/a> of the House, Senate, and presidency. And if you think the Congress of 2021-22 was a disaster, imagine what Democrats could do in a scenario with unified government and without having \u201cmoderates\u201d like Sens. Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., to restrain them: abolish the filibuster, codify abortion-on-demand, admit new states, pack the Supreme Court, and more.<\/p>\n<p>In campaigns as in sport, keeping the eye on the ball remains key. And protecting conservative priorities involves keeping an eye, or more than an eye, on the Montana Senate race.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div>\n<p>      Chris Jacobs is founder and CEO of Juniper Research Group, and author of the book &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/1645720020\">The Case Against Single Payer<\/a>.&#8221; He is on Twitter: <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/chrisjacobsHC\">@chrisjacobsHC<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The upcoming presidential campaign between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the main focus of media attention leading up to Nov. 5. However, the outcome of the House of Representatives and Senate races will also be crucial. Republicans have the opportunity to regain control of the Senate by winning a seat in Montana, which is their best chance to prevent unified Democrat control in Washington next year. The House of Representatives is currently controlled by Republicans with a narrow margin, but Democrats have a chance to take over with a change in four seats. The Senate race is more clear-cut, with Republicans needing to win at least one more seat beyond West Virginia to secure a majority. The Montana Senate race is a key battleground, with Republicans hoping to defeat the incumbent Democrat to secure a working majority. The outcome of these races will have significant implications for the future of the country<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":521,"featured_media":2291641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Welcome-to-Montana-sign.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[4087,3728,8605,5894],"class_list":["post-2291640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-campaign","tag-election","tag-montana","tag-politics"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Welcome-to-Montana-sign.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2291640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/521"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2291640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2291640\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2291641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2291640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2291640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2291640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}