{"id":2287277,"date":"2024-07-01T13:55:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T17:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/most-accurate-pollster-of-2020-releases-rare-poll-adds-insult-to-injury-for-biden\/"},"modified":"2024-07-01T14:00:37","modified_gmt":"2024-07-01T18:00:37","slug":"most-accurate-pollster-of-2020-releases-rare-poll-adds-insult-to-injury-for-biden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/most-accurate-pollster-of-2020-releases-rare-poll-adds-insult-to-injury-for-biden\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Most Accurate Pollster&#8217; of 2020 Releases Rare Poll, Adds Insult to Injury for Biden"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">28<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fmost-accurate-pollster-of-2020-releases-rare-poll-adds-insult-to-injury-for-biden%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2287277&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>In a \u2062commentary by Michael Schwarz on July 1, 2024, he discusses President Joe Biden&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/four-political-figures-who-changed-their-tune-on-bidens-capabilities-after-the-debate-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Four political figures who changed their tune on Biden\u2019s capabilities after the debate - Washington Examiner\">recent debate performance<\/a> and a poll released by AtlasIntel that shows former President\u2063 Donald \u200bTrump with a 5.2 percent lead over Biden nationally. The poll indicates that if applied to the Electoral College map, it would result in a landslide victory for Trump \u2062in the 2024 election. AtlasIntel, known for its accuracy, had the best polls in the 2020\u200b presidential election. The poll \u2062results show Trump \u2062with a lead \u2063over Biden in various key states,\u2063 potentially leading to \u200ca significant \u200bvictory for Trump in the Electoral College. The accuracy of \u2062pollsters like AtlasIntel is crucial, especially when results like \u2062these could have far-reaching consequences in the political landscape. <br \/> <br \/>\n    Read more&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>  Commentary          \u00a0By Michael Schwarz   \u00a0July 1, 2024 at 7:50am      On Thursday, President Joe Biden delivered a debate performance so cringe-worthy that one had to see it to believe it. Then, on Saturday, the most reliable pollster from the 2020 presidential election gave Democrats another reason to cringe. AtlasIntel, a low-volume pollster with a sterling record of accuracy late in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/did-president-trump-spring-a-trap-on-treasonous-democrats-on-election-night\/\" title=\"Did President Trump Spring a Trap on Treasonous Democrats on Election Night?\">2020 presidential election cycle<\/a>, released a poll that showed former President Donald Trump with a 5.2 percent lead over Biden nationally \u2014 a result that, when applied to the Electoral College map, would result in a landslide victory for Trump in the 2024 election.  Trump earned 45.5 percent of the vote compared to Biden\u2019s 40.3 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled a distant third at 10.3 percent. No other candidate received support from even one percent of poll respondents.  \ud83d\udcca\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 ATLAS\/CNN BRASIL POLL \u2013 US ELECTION Trump leads the race for the White House with 45.5% of voting intentions, while Joe Biden sits at 40.3%, according to the Atlas poll released on GPS CNN this Saturday. Robert Kennedy Jr. is the preferred option for 10% of the electorate. pic.twitter.com\/HNT5a6z81Z \u2014 AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) June 29, 2024     The AtlasIntel poll attracted attention because the outlet delivered the most accurate polls of 2020.  In fact, on March 25, 2021, establishment pollster Nate Silver of ABC News\u2019 FiveThirtyEight posted a chart to the social media platform X \u2014 then known as Twitter \u2014 showing how 25 polling outlets performed in the 2020 presidential election based on average error. \u201cThe best-performing pollster was AtlasIntel!\u201d Silver wrote in an accompanying tweet.  Will Democrats replace Biden before November?     In the three weeks preceding the 2020 election, only six of those 25 outlets conducted fewer total polls than AtlasIntel\u2019s 14. Nonetheless, with only a 2.2 percent average error, AtlasIntel established itself as the most reliable pollster. \u201cYeah, they incorrectly had Trump winning a few states, but they were close on the margins, and that\u2019s the better metric,\u201d Silver added.  So the most accurate pollster had Trump winning states he actually \u201clost\u201d? Go figure.  Finally, here\u2019s how the most prolific pollsters fared in the general election. The best-performing pollster was AtlasIntel! Second was Trafalgar! Yeah, they incorrectly had Trump winning a few states, but they were close on the margins, and that\u2019s the better metric. pic.twitter.com\/yqfbjCequB \u2014 Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 25, 2021    Furthermore, Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports ranked second and third, respectively, on Silver\u2019s list of most accurate pollsters.  Trafalgar has not conducted a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/poll-youngkin-edges-out-mcauliffe-voters-trust-the-republican-more-on-education-coronavirus\/\" title=\"Poll: Youngkin Edges Out McAuliffe, Voters Trust the Republican More on Education, Coronavirus\">general election poll<\/a> since March. On June 20, however, Rasmussen released the results of a poll showing Trump with a 9-point lead over Biden head-to-head and a 10-point lead in a race that included Kennedy and other long-shot candidates. In other words, the third-most accurate polling outlet showed Trump with an even bigger lead nationally. The polling news of the weekend, however, belonged to AtlasIntel. And that pollster made a point of highlighting its new poll\u2019s likely electoral consequences. Sunday on X, AtlasIntel shared an eight-minute YouTube video from political analyst Lester Tellez of \u201cOn Point Politics.\u201d  \u201cThe team at @onpointpolitics looked at the AtlasIntel figures released today and studied the implications for the electoral map. Unsurprisingly for a +5 advantage, the forecast looks very strong for Trump at this point,\u201d AtlasIntel wrote.  The team at @onpointpolitics looked at the AtlasIntel figures released today and studied the implications for the electoral map. Unsurprisingly for a +5 advantage, the forecast looks very strong for Trump at this point. You can find the forecast here: https:\/\/t.co\/OsIKLeDdFZ \u2014 AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) June 30, 2024   For those who follow polling, Tellez\u2019s video could hardly have been more shocking.  First, Tellez presented a \u201cdemographic model breakdown\u201d of AtlasIntel\u2019s results. This involved analysis of the usual categories: age, education, sex, income and race. After examining respondents\u2019 answers to issue-related questions, which showed Trump holding double-digit leads on immigration, the economy and foreign policy, Tellez showed how AtlasIntel\u2019s poll would translate to the Electoral College. In sum, the hitherto presumptive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/update-corrupted-software-that-stole-6000-votes-from-trump-in-michigan-county-shut-down-for-two-hours-in-red-counties-in-georgia-on-election-day\/\" title=\"Update: Corrupted Software that Stole 6,000 Votes From Trump in Michigan County -- Shut Down for TWO HOURS in Red Counties in Georgia on Election Day\">swing states<\/a> no longer qualify as swing states. Tellez\u2019s breakdown of AtlasIntel\u2019s results gave Trump an enormous 13-point lead in Georgia and an even more eye-opening 14.9-point lead in North Carolina, which pushed the Tar Heel State close to the \u201csafe\u201d category for the soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee.  Likewise, the Democratic Party\u2019s former \u201cblue wall\u201d has turned red. Tellez gave Trump a 10.3-point lead in Pennsylvania, a 10.2-point lead in Wisconsin and an 8.4-point lead in Michigan. The Southwest has also turned heavily toward Trump. The former <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/a-third-trump-campaign-looks-increasingly-likely\/\" title=\"A Third Trump Campaign Looks Increasingly Likely\">president leads<\/a> by 10 points in Arizona and 9.2 points in Nevada. In the 2020 election, Biden received electoral votes from all of those states except North Carolina. Meanwhile, the only \u201cactual\u201d swing states are Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia and New Mexico.  Of those four swing states, the AtlasIntel results showed Biden winning only New Mexico. All told, Trump prevailed in an Electoral College landslide, 342-196.  Americans have every reason to greet polls and even election results with a degree of skepticism. But when individual pollsters have a track record of success, their results deserve careful attention.  Results like these, of course, would amount to a political earthquake and a well-earned repudiation of the corrupt establishment.  A Note from Our Deputy Managing Editor:  \u201cWe don\u2019t even know if an election will be held in 2024.\u201d Those 12 words have been stuck in my head since I first read them.\u00a0  Former Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn recently made that comment to Floyd Brown, founder of The Western Journal.\u00a0  And if the leftists and the elites get their way, that\u2019s exactly what will happen \u2014 no real election, no real choice for the Electoral College, and no real say for the American people.\u00a0  The Western Journal is fighting to keep that from happening, but we can\u2019t do it alone.  We work tirelessly to expose the lying leftist media and the corrupt America-hating elites.  But Big Tech\u2019s stranglehold is now so tight that without help from you, we will not be able to continue the fight.\u00a0  The 2024 election is literally the most important election for every living American. We have to unite and fight for our country, otherwise we will lose it. And if we lose the America we love in 2024, we\u2019ll lose it for good. Can we count on you to help?\u00a0  With you we will be able to field journalists, do more investigative work, expose more corruption, and get desperately needed truth to millions of Americans.\u00a0  We can do this only with your help. Please don\u2019t wait one minute. Donate right now.  Thank you for reading, Josh Manning Deputy Managing Editor  P.S. Please stand with us today.      Tags: 2020 election, 2024 election, Democrats, Donald Trump, Electoral College, Establishment, Joe Biden, Polls, Presidential debate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Swing states         SummaryMore Biographical InformationRecent PostsContact Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.   Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.           <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Joe Biden&#8217;s recent debate performance was described as cringe-worthy, and a poll by AtlasIntel showed former President Donald Trump leading nationally by 5.2 percent. This result, if applied to the Electoral College map, would result in a landslide victory for Trump in the 2024 election. The pollster&#8217;s accuracy in the 2020 election has garnered attention, with other reliable pollsters also showing Trump in the lead. The poll results suggest a significant shift in swing states towards Trump, potentially leading to an Electoral College landslide victory for him. The importance of accurate polling and the upcoming election is emphasized, urging readers to support efforts to expose corruption and fight for the country<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2056,"featured_media":2287278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Trump-and-Biden.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[32675,33236,3620,28314,33525],"class_list":["post-2287277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-2020-election","tag-accuracy","tag-biden","tag-pollster","tag-rare-poll"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Trump-and-Biden.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2287277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2056"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2287277"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2287277\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2287278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2287277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2287277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2287277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}