{"id":2284515,"date":"2024-06-27T10:24:02","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T14:24:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/establishment-polling-expert-nate-silver-makes-his-prediction-on-2024-election-isnt-a-toss-up\/"},"modified":"2024-06-27T10:29:02","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T14:29:02","slug":"establishment-polling-expert-nate-silver-makes-his-prediction-on-2024-election-isnt-a-toss-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/establishment-polling-expert-nate-silver-makes-his-prediction-on-2024-election-isnt-a-toss-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Establishment Polling Expert Nate Silver Makes His Prediction on 2024 Election &#8211; &#8216;Isn\u2019t a Toss-Up&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Festablishment-polling-expert-nate-silver-makes-his-prediction-on-2024-election-isnt-a-toss-up%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2284515&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Statistician Nate\u200b Silver, known for his previous presidential election\u2064 forecasts at\u200c FiveThirtyEight, has released a new \u2062prediction for the \u2063upcoming 2024 election, indicating a higher probability of victory \u2064for former President Donald \u2064Trump over the current\u200c President Joe Biden. Despite \u2062Silver&#8217;s personal reluctance to support \u2063Trump, he projects a 65.7% \u200cchance of Trump \u2064winning, with Biden having a 33.7% chance based on 40,000 simulations. Silver cited factors \u200blike \u2063<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/argentinas-central-bank-likely-to-raise-interest-rate-this-week-say-traders\/\" title=\"Argentina\u2019s central bank likely to raise interest rate this week, say traders\">persistent high inflation<\/a>, concerns over Biden&#8217;s mental sharpness, a general global pessimism, widespread low approval for incumbents, and \u200cparticularly poor approval \u200dratings for Biden\u2063 as elements likely to influence the election outcome. Silver emphasized that while polls and predictions provide insight, \u2064the integrity of election processes remains crucial, highlighting the risk of\u200d voter fraud and its potential to undermine democratic outcomes.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<header> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/commentary\/\">  Commentary <\/a>   <span> <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/schang\/\">  <\/a> <\/p>\n<p> <span>   By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/schang\/%20\"><span>Samantha Chang<\/span><\/a> <\/span> <span>   June 27, 2024 at 6:22am <\/span> <\/span>  <\/header>\n<section>\n<p>Statistician Nate Silver, a card-carrying liberal who does not want former President Donald Trump to win in November, conceded the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/impossible-gop-picked-up-seats-in-house-picked-up-state-legislatures-picked-up-governorship-held-the-senate-but-sniffy-joe-won-not-a-chance\/\" title=\"IMPOSSIBLE: GOP Picked Up Seats in House, Picked Up State Legislatures, Picked Up Governorship, Held the Senate -- But Sniffy Joe Won?... NOT A CHANCE\">general election<\/a> is no longer a \u201ctoss-up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t want Trump to win the election, and I\u2019d never consider voting for him,\u201d the analyst wrote Wednesday in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/the-presidential-election-isnt-a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forecast<\/a> headlined \u201cThe presidential election isn\u2019t a toss-up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn\u2019t the candidate I\u2019d rather have win (Biden),\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p>Having said that, Silver \u2014 who is perhaps best known for being part of the establishment media shills at FiveThirtyEight who grossly overestimated Hillary Clinton\u2019s chances of winning the 2016 presidential election \u2014 predicts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/obama-reportedly-worried-biden-vs-trump-ii-anxiety-election-real\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trump<\/a> has a 65.7 percent chance of victory over President Joe Biden, who has a 33.7 percent chance.<\/p>\n<p>His forecast was based on 40,000 simulations run through a statistical model. It has Trump receiving 287 Electoral College votes versus 250 for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/two-different-federal-courts-halt-bidens-student-debt-cancellation-plan-day\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Biden<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In the popular vote, Biden has a narrow edge, with a projected win of 51 percent versus 49 percent for his GOP challenger.<\/p>\n<p>This is astonishing (and astonishingly bad for Biden), given the current demographic makeup of the United States, which generally favors Democrats.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Nate Silver has published his first 2024 election model prediciton\u2026<\/p>\n<p>It gives Trump a 66% chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p>In my opinion, Nate is the best mainstream election forecaster in the game. He\u2019s also said many times that he personally does not want Trump to win. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OVzaT29cCb\">pic.twitter.com\/OVzaT29cCb<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Geiger_Capital\/status\/1806031506403623150?\">June 26, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"firefly-poll-container\">\n<p>Are you voting for Trump?<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>In a long-winded analysis, Silver said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/trump-gets-great-news-georgia-just-2-days-atlanta-debate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trump<\/a> will likely win because of a confluence of key factors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Very high inflation.<\/li>\n<li>Concerns about Biden\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/biden-called-upon-take-drug-test-ahead-debate-american-people-deserve-know\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mental acuity<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Global pessimism about the state of the world.<\/li>\n<li>Incumbents worldwide losing elections.<\/li>\n<li>Biden\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/644252\/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx#:~:text=The%20latest%20quarterly%20average%20for,readings%20have%20been%20near%2040%25.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dismal approval<\/a> ratings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s Biden\u2019s age, which voters have extremely persistent concerns about,\u201d Silver wrote.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s the very high inflation of mid-2021 through mid-2023 \u2014 which has considerably abated, but still is reflected in much higher prices than when Biden took office.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Since Biden took office: groceries up 20.7%, gasoline up 48%, energy up 38.4%, consumer prices up 19.4%, credit card debt up 44.8%. Real average hourly earnings are down 2.63%. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bidenomics?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bidenomics<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Inflation?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Inflation<\/a><br \/>  Sources: FactCheck, PolitiFact, Wisconsin Wa <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Nc9BsMJCRg\">pic.twitter.com\/Nc9BsMJCRg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 Pismo \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 (@Pismo_B) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Pismo_B\/status\/1806076572207829266?\">June 26, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Silver continued: \u201cThere\u2019s the fact that the global mood is pessimistic and that incumbents have been getting crushed everywhere around the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBiden has the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/bidens-job-approval-sinks-historic-low-hasnt-result-bad-70-years\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lowest approval ratings<\/a> of anyone running for re-election since either George H.W. Bush or Jimmy Carter, depending on how you squint at the numbers,\u201d he further lamented.<\/p>\n<p>Silver also noted that he wasn\u2019t even bringing up some of the other issues hounding Biden: \u201cThe reasons he might lose are overdetermined. (I haven\u2019t even mentioned things like immigration or the war in Gaza.)\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s sometimes useful to look at forecasts, but polls and predictions don\u2019t win elections; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/mike-kelly-same-people-criticizing-trump-peddled-russia-collusion-hoax\/\" title=\"Mike Kelly: Same People Criticizing Trump Peddled Russia Collusion Hoax\">fair elections<\/a> do.<\/p>\n<p>As long the potential for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/maricopa-county-election-worker-arrested-allegedly-stealing-voting-machine-security-device\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">voter fraud<\/a> goes unchecked, any election prediction is, to quote William Shakespeare, \u201ca tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div>\n<p><b><i>A Note from Our Deputy Managing Editor:<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span>I heard a chilling comment the other day: \u201cWe don\u2019t even know if an election will be held in 2024.\u201d <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>That wasn\u2019t said by a conspiracy theorist or a doomsday prophet. No, former U.S. national security advisor Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn said that to the founder of The Western Journal, Floyd Brown.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Gen. Flynn\u2019s warning means that the 2024 election is the most important election for every single living American. If we lose this one to the wealthy elites who hate us, hate God, and hate what America stands for, we can only assume that 248 years of American history and the values we hold dear to our hearts may soon vanish.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>The end game is here, and as Benjamin Franklin said, \u201cWe must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>All of this means that <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>without you<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>, it\u2019s over. We have the platform, the journalists, and the experience to fight back hard, but Big Tech is strangling us through advertising blacklists, shadow bans, and algorithms. Did you know that we\u2019ve been blacklisted by 90% of advertisers? Without direct support from you, our readers, we can\u2019t continue the fight.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Can we count on <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>your support<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>? It may not seem like much, but a <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>Western Journal Membership<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>  can make all the difference in the world because when you support us directly, you cut Big Tech out of the picture. They lose control. <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>A monthly Western Journal Membership costs less than one coffee and breakfast sandwich each month, and it gets you access to ALL of our content \u2014 news, commentary, and premium articles. You\u2019ll experience a radically reduced number of ads, and most importantly you will be vitally supporting the fight for America\u2019s soul in 2024.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>We are literally counting on you because without our members, The Western Journal would cease to exist. Will you <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>join us<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>  in the fight? <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Sincerely,<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Josh Manning<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Deputy Managing Editor<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>The Western Journal<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"author-info-45423\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/schang\/\">  <\/a> <\/p>\n<div>\n<p><label for=\"summary-tab-radio-45423\">Summary<\/label><label for=\"more-info-tab-radio-45423\">More<span> Biographical Information<\/span><\/label><label for=\"posts-tab-radio-45423\">Recent<span> Posts<\/span><\/label><label for=\"contact-tab-radio-45423\" onclick=\"if( typeof grecaptcha=='undefined' ) { let cap_s=document.createElement( 'script' ); cap_s.src='https:\/\/www.google.com\/recaptcha\/api.js?render=6LeJFcsUAAAAAPsIEqvB1EebWbZfqRUe6ebMpGy7'; document.body.appendChild( cap_s ); }\">Contact<\/label><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Samantha Chang is a political commentator, lawyer and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/bidenomics-five-cities-where-rent-continues-to-explode-how-it-could-impact-the-election\/\" title=\"Bidenomics Impact: Rent Surges in Five Cities - Election Influence\">financial editor<\/a> in NYC.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>  Samantha Chang is a politics writer, lawyer and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/teacher-investigated-after-movie-she-showed-in-classroom-takes-shot-at-christian-school-board-member\/\" title=\"Teacher Investigated After Movie She Showed in Classroom, Takes Shot at Christian School Board Member\">financial editor based<\/a> in NYC. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Statistician Nate Silver, a self-professed liberal, admitted that the upcoming general election is no longer a &#8220;toss-up.&#8221; Despite his personal stance against Donald Trump, Silver acknowledged the shift in election dynamics. &#8220;I don\u2019t want Trump to win, and I\u2019d never vote for him,&#8221; he stated on Wednesday<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2011,"featured_media":2284516,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/trump-and-biden-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[548],"tags":[32431,33015,32904,33017,33016],"class_list":["post-2284515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-conservative-news-daily","tag-2024-election","tag-election-prediction","tag-nate-silver","tag-political-analysis","tag-polling-expert"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/trump-and-biden-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2284515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2011"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2284515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2284515\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2284516"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2284515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2284515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2284515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}