{"id":2273248,"date":"2024-06-21T07:03:02","date_gmt":"2024-06-21T11:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/good-news-and-bad-news-for-trump-in-the-polls\/"},"modified":"2024-06-21T07:09:01","modified_gmt":"2024-06-21T11:09:01","slug":"good-news-and-bad-news-for-trump-in-the-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/good-news-and-bad-news-for-trump-in-the-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"Mixed poll results for Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">10<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fgood-news-and-bad-news-for-trump-in-the-polls%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2273248&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The latest polling \u200ddata \u200bpresents a mixed outlook for President Joe Biden and former President\u2064 Donald Trump a week before their first\u200d debate. Biden has \u200covertaken Trump in a national Fox News \u200dpoll, leading by \u200d2 points, which\u200b narrows to a\u200b 1-point lead when third-party candidates are included. Despite this, Trump maintains \u2063a slim lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average and in key swing states according to other surveys. The \u2064battleground states show Trump ahead or tied, which\u200d improves\u2062 further with the inclusion\u2063 of third-party candidates. This\u200d scenario highlights \u200ba \u2062fiercely competitive race that \u2062isn&#8217;t decisively tilting in favor of either \u200dcandidate, despite \u200dthe impacts of recent \u2064political events including \u200dTrump&#8217;s conviction in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/donald-trumps-criminal-hush-money-trial-set-for-march-25\/\" title=\"Trump's hush money trial scheduled for March 25\">hush money trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In terms \u200bof\u2064 voter demographics, recent shifts show independents moving\u200b towards\u2062 Biden,\u2062 favoring him over Trump\u200b after \u2062previously leaning \u200dtowards\u2063 Trump. This could be significant, as independents often play a \u2064crucial role in determining \u2064election\u200d outcomes. Additionally, the economic\u200b sentiment under Biden&#8217;s administration is recording high confidence levels,\u2064 although \u200conly a minority feels \u200bthis way according to Fox polls.<\/p>\n<p>these \u200cfindings suggest a close contest with several factors, \u2064including the performance \u2062of third-party candidates \u2063and\u2062 the perceptions\u200b of\u200c leadership and integrity among the candidates, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-drops-to-all-time-low-approval-rating-prominent-pollster-suggests-dropout-threshold-may-have-been-hit\/\" title=\"Biden's Approval Rating Hits Record Low, Leading Pollster Hints at Possible Dropout Threshold Reached\">influencing voter preference<\/a> as the 2024 election approaches.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The latest round of polling contains good news and bad news for both President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a> and former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a> less than a week before their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3053746\/a-lucky-flip-trump-former-president-gets-last-word-at-debate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>first debate showdown<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Biden enjoyed his first lead in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/official-polls\/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>national Fox News poll<\/a> since October. It is also his largest, with the president beating Trump by 2 points, 50% to 48% in a two-way race. That drops to 1 point when third-party candidates are included, with Biden receiving 43% to Trump\u2019s 42%.<\/p>\n<p>Trump still leads by 0.5 points in the national <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>polling average<\/a>, though Biden has inched ahead by 0.1 points in <em>FiveThirtyEight<\/em>\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/2024\/national\/?ex_cid=abcpromo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>average<\/a> thanks to five straight national polls putting the Democrat on top (all by 1 to 2 points).<\/p>\n<p>But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/latest-polls\/state\/general-election\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>swing-state polling<\/a> for the <em>Hill <\/em>and Emerson College paints a different picture. Trump leads in six battleground states and is tied in the seventh in a two-way race. This improves to all seven when three third-party candidates, including independent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/rfk-jr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<\/a>, are counted.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/election-2024\/?utm_source=homepage&#038;utm_medium=banner&#038;utm_campaign=iowa_caucus&#038;utm_id=election2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong>ELECTION 2024: FOLLOW LATEST COVERAGE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The seventh of these states is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/3053308\/biden-trump-dead-even-minnesota-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Minnesota<\/a>, not considered a swing state at all at the outset of the 2024 campaign. Minnesota is the only state to have never voted for Ronald Reagan. The last Republican presidential nominee to carry it was Richard Nixon in 1972, the same year Biden was first elected to the Senate more than a half-century ago.<\/p>\n<p>There is also the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/en-us\/ipsos-2024-us-swing-state-election-survey-june-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Ipsos swing-state survey<\/a>, measuring the candidates\u2019 cumulative support in \u200b\u200bMichigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. It has Trump up by 2 points in a five-way race and hitting 50% for a 3-point lead when matched up against Biden only. The <em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>has Trump up in all seven states individually, though often by small margins.<\/p>\n<p>Different polls, sampling different electorates, with different results. But they all show a close race, even after Trump\u2019s conviction in the New York hush money trial.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, there are things each candidate has to like about the latest numbers.<\/p>\n<h2>Independents moving toward Biden<\/h2>\n<p>In the Fox poll, independents now favor the incumbent by 9 points. In May, they preferred Trump by 2. These unaffiliated voters give Biden higher marks than Trump for integrity. Trump is viewed as the stronger leader but by a smaller margin.<\/p>\n<p>This is consistent with other findings suggesting that there has been a modest drop-off for Trump since his criminal conviction, though that has been partially offset by increased intensity among Republicans who believe he was railroaded. More troubling for Trump is that Fox found confidence in the economy at a record high under Biden. Still, just 32% of respondents felt that way.<\/p>\n<h2>Third parties falling back down to earth<\/h2>\n<p>One of the differences between 2016, when Trump won, and 2020, when he lost to Biden, was a drop in the third-party vote over that four-year period. Candidates such as Jill Stein and Cornel West are more likely to draw from Biden than Trump, although Kennedy\u2019s effect is less predictable. Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3017897\/trumps-hand-friendship-bit-libertarian-party\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>made a play<\/a> for Libertarian Party voters, whose presidential tickets have cleared 1 million votes in each of the last three cycles, often running former Republicans.<\/p>\n<p>In general, a high third-party vote is believed to benefit Trump by making it easier for him to win with a plurality and splitting any potential anti-Trump coalition. Ballot access could go a long way toward determining how big of an impact third parties have this year.<\/p>\n<h2>It\u2019s the Electoral College, stupid<\/h2>\n<p>If Trump is still ahead in the battleground states, he is still at the moment favored to win the presidency again even if he has fallen slightly behind Biden nationally. That\u2019s because the electoral vote is what elects the president in a composite of 50 state elections rather than a plurality of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/6-steps-the-democrats-will-take-to-fundamentally-alter-america-and-ensure-their-permanent-power\/\" title=\"6 Steps The Democrats Will Take To Fundamentally Alter America And Ensure Their Permanent Power\">national popular vote<\/a>. This is what happened when Trump defeated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/hillary-clinton\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Hillary Clinton<\/a> in 2016.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong>CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not to say that Trump wouldn\u2019t like to be only the second Republican to win the popular vote since 1988 or that it wouldn\u2019t help him counter Democratic attacks on his legitimacy if reelected. But the six to eight battleground states are where this election will be won or lost. <\/p>\n<p>There are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3049015\/four-things-shake-up-presidential-race\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>several major future events<\/a> in the campaign that could still swing the relatively small margins between Trump and Biden. The former president remains competitive after his conviction, with his sentencing to come between the first debate and the Republican National Convention. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest polls reveal mixed fortunes for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump ahead of their debate. Biden leads in a Fox News national poll for the first time since October, outpacing Trump by 2 points, marking his largest lead yet<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2659,"featured_media":2273249,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/trump-biden-diptych.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2273248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/trump-biden-diptych.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2273248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2659"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2273248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2273248\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2273249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2273248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2273248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2273248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}