{"id":2270233,"date":"2024-06-18T07:24:02","date_gmt":"2024-06-18T11:24:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/four-things-that-could-still-shake-up-the-presidential-race\/"},"modified":"2024-06-18T07:27:24","modified_gmt":"2024-06-18T11:27:24","slug":"four-things-that-could-still-shake-up-the-presidential-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/four-things-that-could-still-shake-up-the-presidential-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Four factors that might still disrupt the presidential race"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ffour-things-that-could-still-shake-up-the-presidential-race%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2270233&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The 2024\u2063 U.S. presidential \u2063election has\u200b remained\u200d largely\u2064 static \u200csince last\u200c fall, with former President Donald Trump maintaining a slight lead nationally and in battleground states. \u2062Despite the developments, including felony convictions related \u2063to Trump and controversies involving President Joe Biden\u2019s son, Hunter, shifts in \u2064poll numbers have \u200cbeen minimal. Various elements \u200bcould\u200c potentially alter\u2063 the race dynamics, such as unforeseen international crises, natural \u2064disasters, or \u200bhealth issues affecting the \u2062elderly candidates.<\/p>\n<p>In \u200bupcoming \u2063events,\u2063 Biden and Trump \u2064are scheduled to\u200b debate \u2064on June\u200b 27 and again in \u2063September. Biden,\u200d soon turning 82, faces scrutiny over his age and physical stamina, \u2063while Trump, having recently turned 78, might contend with high expectations that could\u2064 work\u200b against him. These debates happen before either candidate has secured their party\u2019s\u2064 official nomination, providing a critical early test that could influence the direction of the campaign.<\/p>\n<p>The political conventions will follow,\u2064 with each \u200bparty aiming to solidify\u200c their candidate&#8217;s position. The Republican\u2062 National Convention will\u200c closely follow Trump&#8217;s sentencing in a legal case, \u2062potentially impacting his physical presence and participation. Simultaneously, the Democratic Convention may\u2063 experience tensions and protests, \u200bparticularly concerning Biden\u2019s\u2063 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/house-democrat-asks-state-department-if-biden-actually-speaks-for-the-administration-on-taiwan\/\" title=\"House Democrat questions if Biden truly represents administration on Taiwan.\">foreign \u200dpolicy decisions<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Trump&#8217;s upcoming sentencing, where he faces possible prison time or probation, will be a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/house-republicans-try-again-to-impeach-mayorkas-with-scalise-return\/\" title=\"House Republicans make another attempt to impeach Mayorkas as Scalise returns\">significant focal point<\/a>. The Democrats are poised to \u200bemphasize Trump\u2019s status as a convicted felon \u2064during the campaign. \u200cThe outcome\u200d of his sentencing could \u200dhave\u2064 serious implications \u200dfor his campaign efforts and overall political \u2062landscape moving into the 2024 \u2063election.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2024-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>2024 presidential race<\/a> has been frozen in place, with former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a> enjoying a slight lead nationally and in the battleground states since last fall.<\/p>\n<p>While a lot has happened since then, including the felony convictions of Trump and President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a>\u2019s son <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/hunter-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Hunter<\/a>, the movement in the polls has been modest at best.<\/p>\n<p>Barring some unpredictable external event, like a foreign policy crisis or natural disaster, or a health event for one of the elderly major party candidates, a few opportunities remain to shake up the race.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/election-2024\/?utm_source=homepage&#038;utm_medium=banner&#038;utm_campaign=iowa_caucus&#038;utm_id=election2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ELECTION 2024: FOLLOW LATEST COVERAGE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>The debates<\/h2>\n<p>Biden and Trump will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3046498\/cnn-announces-rules-for-first-presidential-debate-muted-mics-and-no-notes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>meet to debate<\/a> for the first time on June 27. They are scheduled to do so for a second time in September. <\/p>\n<p>The incumbent goes into the debate facing questions <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/daily-memo\/3032423\/bidens-losing-battle-with-the-age-issue\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>about his age <\/a>\u2014\u00a0he will turn 82 shortly after the election and would be 86 by the end of a second term \u2014\u00a0and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/2849070\/biden-age-problem-rattles-campaign\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>stamina<\/a>. Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3042422\/trumps-birthday-bidens-age-spotlight\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>turned 78<\/a> on Friday and faces higher expectations, which could be to his detriment. <\/p>\n<p>This is an early debate, before either candidate is their party\u2019s nominee. That could help the loser minimize the electoral consequences of a poor performance. But if Biden stumbles, it will increase talk about Democrats pulling an \u201cAugust surprise\u201d by either replacing him at the convention or coaxing him out of the race. Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Kamala Harris<\/a>\u2019s poor poll numbers may serve as the ultimate insurance policy.<\/p>\n<h2>The conventions<\/h2>\n<p>Historically speaking, the state of the race becomes clearer once the two parties\u2019 conventions have concluded. While political reporters pine for contested conventions or any drama whatsoever, in modern times, these have become extended television commercials for the nominees.<\/p>\n<p>The Republican National Convention happens days after Trump is sentenced in the New York hush money trial. There have been reports, which some Republican officials have denied, that contingency plans are being made in case Trump\u2019s sentence prevents him from being physically present in Milwaukee. <\/p>\n<p>On the Democratic side, there are fears of protests and even violence. Progressive activists remain angry over Biden\u2019s relative support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Some call him \u201cGenocide Joe.\u201d Anti-war demonstrations and fights with police at the 1968 Democratic convention helped elect Richard Nixon by symbolizing a country in chaos. Post-9\/11 conventions are much more difficult for protesters to penetrate, but the real action might be outside the convention hall.<\/p>\n<h2>Trump\u2019s sentencing<\/h2>\n<p>The Democrats plan to lean heavily into Trump\u2019s new status as a convicted felon. He will be sentenced before the GOP convention. A prison term or probation might become a hot-button political issue or even affect his ability to campaign.<\/p>\n<p>Note the word \u201cmight.\u201d When the judge in the New York case threatened Trump with incarceration over his repeated gag rule violations, he also made clear he recognized the significance of jailing a once and perhaps future president. <\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-big-biden-panic-the-president-is-trailing-but-perhaps-the-guilty-verdict-against-trump-will-save-him\/\" title=\"Biden's Challenge: Trailing President Hopes Trump Verdict Will Turn the Tide\">multiple indictments helped<\/a> him in the Republican primaries and had little impact on the general election polling. The same was true of the E. Jean Carroll and New York civil fraud verdicts. Trump\u2019s hush money conviction appears to have been followed by a modest dip in the polls \u2014\u00a0he leads by 0.8 points nationally in the <em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>polling average \u2014 partially offset by increased Republican intensity and a boost in fundraising.<\/p>\n<p>There is no guarantee that Trump\u2019s sentence will alter the dynamics of the race or that this will be negative for him if it does. But we won\u2019t really know until it happens.<\/p>\n<h2>Hunter Biden\u2019s tax trial<\/h2>\n<p>Trump probably won\u2019t have another of the legal cases against him go to trial before the election. Hunter Biden will in September.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats will frequently repeat that Hunter Biden is not running for president. But his legal travails put additional strain on his father, and the possibility of a prison term would put some pressure on the incumbent to offer clemency, something the president and the White House have said they will not do.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A major Democratic talking point will be that Hunter Biden\u2019s trials undermine Trump\u2019s claims that the justice system is being weaponized against Republicans. Republicans will bring up the first son\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/fncs-pirro-everything-that-hunter-biden-did-is-dirty\/\" title=\"FNC's Pirro: 'Everything that Hunter Biden Did Is Dirty'\">shady foreign business dealings<\/a> and tie them to the president.<\/p>\n<p>An election between two highly familiar candidates who have both served in the White House may prove impervious to normal campaign dynamics. The cake could be baked. But if anything can change the parameters of this contest, these would be some possibilities. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2024 presidential race remains largely unchanged since last fall, with former President Donald Trump maintaining a slight lead nationally and in key battleground states. Despite significant events, including Trump&#8217;s felony convictions and legal issues involving President Joe Biden\u2019s son Hunter, shifts in poll numbers have been minimal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2659,"featured_media":2270234,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AP24162530928000-1.jpg.optimal.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2270233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AP24162530928000-1.jpg.optimal.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2270233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2659"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2270233"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2270233\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2270234"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2270233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2270233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2270233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}