{"id":2269848,"date":"2024-06-17T16:37:02","date_gmt":"2024-06-17T20:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2024-is-trumps-to-lose\/"},"modified":"2024-06-17T16:40:25","modified_gmt":"2024-06-17T20:40:25","slug":"2024-is-trumps-to-lose","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2024-is-trumps-to-lose\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 Is Trump&#8217;s to Lose"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">10<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2F2024-is-trumps-to-lose%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2269848&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>In the upcoming 2024 election, an interesting shift is occurring \u2063where Republicans, particularly Donald Trump, are favored among low-likelihood voters, a group traditionally not targeted by Republicans. The New York Times suggests that if voter \u200cturnout were universally \u200bhigh, Trump would benefit rather than Biden, marking a significant\u200b change from the \u200btraditional voting patterns \u200cwhere Democrats do better in high \u2062turnout elections. \u2062This\u2063 emerging pattern points to\u2062 a widespread dissatisfaction with Biden among infrequent voters, considering Trump currently leads in places\u200c like Minnesota and Nevada.<\/p>\n<p>Ahead of the 2022 election, Trump\u2019s advantages include substantial campaign \u2064resources and the fact that his daughter-in-law is running the RNC,\u2064 helping to \u200dstrengthen his campaign&#8217;s outreach and legal strategies. However, the debates pose a considerable\u2063 challenge for Trump.\u2062 Debate rules seeming to favor Biden and potential biases among the moderators are highlighted as risks for Trump. He needs to focus \u200don criticizing Biden&#8217;s presidency rather than defending against accusations concerning his \u2063own past administration to appeal to more voters. Additionally, \u2062logistical choices such as muting microphones and the \u2062absence of an audience during debates could disadvantage\u200c Trump,\u200b who benefits from direct engagement.\u200d <\/p>\n<p>the 2024 election is shaping up to be influenced heavily by voter turnout\u200d patterns and the candidates\u2019 capability to appeal to both their\u200b bases and the less \u200dengaged voters.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Something fascinating and unique is happening regarding the 2024 election.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you look at the polling data, you see what\u2019s unique: Republicans are breaking into the low-likelihood voter camp.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Typically, when it comes to elections, the basic logic has been that Democrats win in high turnout elections and Republicans win in low turnout elections. This has explained why Republicans seem to outperform during midterm elections, although 2022 was an exception.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In 2016, there was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/irans-president-refuses-to-meet-with-biden-amid-nuclear-deal-talks\/\" title=\"Iran\u2019s president refuses to meet with Biden amid nuclear deal talks\">low voter turnout<\/a> and Donald Trump won. In 2020, there was very, very <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-deflects-blame-for-mcauliffe-loss-says-he-cant-stop-republican-turnout\/\" title=\"Biden Deflects Blame For McAuliffe Loss, Says He Can\u2019t Stop Republican Turnout\">high voter turnout<\/a>, and Joe Biden won.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But in 2024, something unique is happening. In their \u201cIf Everyone Voted, Would Biden Benefit? Not Anymore.\u201d article, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/15\/upshot\/election-democrats-republicans-turnout-trump.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">New York Times<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">  explains: \u201cA new electoral divide has emerged in America. This divide is not rooted in race, geography, age or education. Instead, it is engagement in democracy itself.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A representation of all 200 million registered voters in the United States shows that people who voted in the 2022 primary election are favoring Biden in this election by a margin about 5%, 49 to 44. But of people who voted in the 2020 election, Donald Trump is leading. And of people who didn\u2019t vote at all in either of those elections (2020 or 2022), Trump is leading by 14 percentage points.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">What this means is that if everyone voted among those 200 million registered voters, Trump would win. It is not Biden who would win. As Nate Cohn writes:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In a reversal of one of the most familiar patterns in American politics, it appears that Donald J. Trump, not President Biden, would stand to gain if everyone in the country turned out and voted.<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">  \u2026 <\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The pattern is the latest example of how the Trump brand of conservative populism has transformed American politics. His candidacy galvanized liberals to defend democracy and abortion rights, giving Democrats the edge in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/another-dem-friendly-poll-shifts-dramatically-towards-the-gop\/\" title=\"Another Dem-Friendly Poll Shifts Dramatically Towards the GOP\">low-turnout special<\/a> and midterm elections. Yet at the same time, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/post-indictment-poll-offers-incredible-news-for-trump-he-beats-biden-but-desantis-doesnt\/\" title=\"New Poll Shows Trump Triumphs Over Biden, DeSantis Falls Short\">early polls suggest<\/a>, many less engaged and infrequent voters have grown deeply dissatisfied with Mr. Biden.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">So is that about Trump, or is that about dissatisfaction with Biden?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">I would suggest that it\u2019s about wild dissatisfaction with Biden. A new poll suggests Trump is now leading in Minnesota \u2014 Minnesota! \u2014\u00a0by two points. That is not a state that should be on the map for Trump. He is currently winning well outside the margin of error in Nevada, which he lost in 2020. In other words, so many people are disillusioned with Biden that he is losing even among voters who tend to be those <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gov-desantis-calls-for-change-at-the-rnc\/\" title=\"Gov. DeSantis Calls for Change at the RNC\">low-propensity voters<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This is a massive problem for him.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailywire.com\/episode\/ep-1985-member-exclusive\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WATCH: The Ben Shapiro Show<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The biggest obstacles to Donald Trump winning are Donald Trump\u2019s ground game and Donald Trump saying things. Democrats have had an excellent ground game for as long as I have been alive, and it\u2019s gotten better and better. The Republican party ground game has been very weak, except in states like Florida. So Trump had better be expending the resources.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It\u2019s one thing for Trump to complain about the possibility of voter fraud. That possibility is quite real.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But now the excuses are gone. This election is Trump\u2019s to lose. His daughter-in-law runs the RNC. He has a massive campaign. He has millions of dollars in the war chest. That means there\u2019s no excuse for not getting out the vote for Republicans in the swing states. And there\u2019s also no excuse for not having an army of lawyers at the polling places to ensure every legal vote is counted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That\u2019s problem number one, and theoretically, the Trump campaign should solve it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Then, there\u2019s problem number two. The debate is coming up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The rules for the debate have now apparently been set, according to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/06\/15\/politics\/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">CNN<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. This whole scenario has been stacked by the Biden campaign from the outset, when they offered debates on CNN and ABC and immediately had the dates and the moderators lined up. That means it was preset with those networks before Biden even issued the challenge. Trump didn\u2019t want to appear chicken, so instead of saying, \u201cLet\u2019s settle on what those debates look like,\u201d before accepting, he simply accepted the debate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That is going to put him at a systemic disadvantage because the moderators in these debates are going to be wildly biased against Trump. The first debate will be hosted by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, both of whom clearly do not want Trump to be president and also believe he is a threat to democracy \u2014 which means the entire debate, if they have their druthers, is going to be about January 6 and the 2020 election.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">  is the single greatest threat to Donald Trump retaining the presidency in this election cycle. If he falls for that trap, that is the biggest mistake he can make. He needs to have a swift and a quick comeback line. If they say, \u201cMr. President, you tried to lead an insurrection on January 6,\u201d he should say, \u201cListen, I disagree with your characterization of what happened on January 6, but let\u2019s point something out: January 6 happened in 2020. The year is now 2024. And there\u2019s one thing the American people know: They saw me as president and they saw Joe Biden as president. Their lives under me were much better than they are under Biden because everyone knows he is a terrible president.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">He needs to keep shifting the attack back to Biden instead of getting defensive and talking about election 2020, which he wants to do because President Trump loves talking about what he believes was a rigged election in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In some ways, he\u2019s right. Obviously, the media were very motivated to lie during the election cycle, as with hiding the Hunter Biden laptop story. Not to mention all the changes to the voting. All of that is true.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But talking about that is <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">not going to win him votes<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. What will win Trump votes in the debate is <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">focusing on Joe Biden\u2019s actual record<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. The debate is only 90 minutes. And now apparently, it\u2019s going to include two commercial breaks. This is the first time a presidential debate will include commercial breaks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Trump should have said, \u201cNo, I\u2019m not doing the debate if there are commercial breaks,\u201d because Trump has the stamina to stand there for 90 minutes. Biden doesn\u2019t.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Additionally, microphones will be muted throughout the debate, except for the candidate whose turn it is to speak. No props or pre-written notes will be allowed on the stage. Candidates will be given a pen, a pad of paper, and a bottle of water. There will be no studio audience.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In other words, CNN is rigging this as much as possible in favor of Biden. No studio audience? The studio audience would certainly be much more prone to support Trump because half the Democratic Party is angry at Biden.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Muting the microphones? That is going to prevent Trump from jumping in with a one-liner, as he did with Hillary Clinton. When she was talking about how terrible things would be if Trump were president, he quickly responded, \u201cIf I were president, you\u2019d be in jail.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">There\u2019s one other big threat in the debate being set up right now: lowering the debate bar for Biden.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">What Trump should say is, \u201cListen, we can all see that Joe Biden is ailing. We can all see that he\u2019s really old. He\u2019s falling apart. With that said, the State of the Union address proves that you can shoot that guy up with whatever you need to do to get him to be mildly alive, mostly dead. So this debate is not going to be about Joe Biden\u2019s mental capacity. This debate is going to be about Joe Biden as President of the United States and his terrible record on everything from the economy to the border to foreign policy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">He should be saying that from now until the election because what\u2019s happening <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">right now<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">  is good for the Trump campaign, which is the widespread perception that Biden is not mentally competent to be president of the United States. But it\u2019s very bad <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">for the debate<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">  because if Biden even shows up and doesn\u2019t die, then he wins. That\u2019s how low the bar is right now.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If Biden is simply breathing, if he has a pulse by the end of the debate, if he has not soiled himself on stage, then he will be deemed a sprightly, elderly winner of the debate by the media.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Donald Trump doesn\u2019t have to point out that Joe Biden is gone. We all know it. What he needs to point out over and over again is that he was a better president than Biden is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">End of story.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2024 election is witnessing a unique trend: Republicans are gaining traction among typically low-likelihood voters. Historically, high voter turnout has favored Democrats, while Republicans have prevailed in lower turnout scenarios. Current polling data, however, indicates a shift in this longstanding electoral pattern<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":161,"featured_media":2269849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/dw-wp-production.imgix.net\/2024\/06\/GettyImages-2156904699.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2269848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/dw-wp-production.imgix.net\/2024\/06\/GettyImages-2156904699.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2269848","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/161"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2269848"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2269848\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2269849"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2269848"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2269848"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2269848"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}