{"id":2269306,"date":"2024-06-17T07:18:02","date_gmt":"2024-06-17T11:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-south-dakotas-abortion-referendum-could-finally-produce-a-pro-life-win\/"},"modified":"2024-06-17T07:24:49","modified_gmt":"2024-06-17T11:24:49","slug":"why-south-dakotas-abortion-referendum-could-finally-produce-a-pro-life-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-south-dakotas-abortion-referendum-could-finally-produce-a-pro-life-win\/","title":{"rendered":"Why South Dakota&#8217;s Abortion Referendum Might Secure a Pro-Life Victory"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwhy-south-dakotas-abortion-referendum-could-finally-produce-a-pro-life-win%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2269306&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>After the overturning of Roe v. Wade, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/activists-already-licking-their-chops-at-getting-taxpayers-to-pay-for-abortions-amid-potential-biden-admin\/\" title=\"Activists Already Licking Their Chops at Getting Taxpayers To Pay for Abortions Amid Potential Biden Admin\">pro-life<\/a> advocates faced a \u2062tough battle,\u2062 losing all seven state abortion referendums. In South Dakota, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/former-miss-texas-averie-bishop-challenges-republican-angie-chen-button-for-state-house-seat\/\" title=\"Ex-Miss Texas Averie Bishop takes on GOP's Angie Chen Button for state House.\">predominantly conservative state<\/a>, a poll showed that 53 percent of voters support a ballot measure to establish\u200c a trimester system for abortion \u2062rights, despite a recent 46-44 lead for the opposing, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/roe-v-wade-in-serious-danger-as-supreme-court-hears-challenge-to-mississippi-abortion-ban\/\" title=\"Roe v. Wade In Serious Danger As Supreme Court Hears Challenge to Mississippi Abortion Ban\">pro-abortion side<\/a> in November. Despite difficult circumstances,\u200b such as Kentucky\u2019s pro-abortion referendum win and the factor of\u200c partisanship not ensuring \u2064victory, there are reasons for optimism for pro-lifers. High voter turnout \u200cin a presidential year\u2064 and rallying support among Republicans could be key. Governor Kristi Noem and Senator John \u2062Thune could potentially leverage their positions \u200cto influence the\u200d outcome.\u200b Additionally, the\u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/still-using-slips-of-paper-archaic-systems-faa-unfit-to-handle-next-gen-aviation-sen-cruz\/\" title=\"Still Using \u2018Slips of Paper,\u2019 Archaic Systems, FAA Unfit to Handle \u2018Next-Gen\u2019 Aviation: Sen. Cruz\">status quo bias<\/a> could give\u200c an edge to the pro-life\u2063 side, as a &#8220;no&#8221; vote would leave South Dakota&#8217;s current abortion ban unchanged, sustaining the existing \u2064legal framework without introducing new amendments to the constitution.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-content\">\n<p>After losing <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/History_of_abortion_ballot_measures\">all seven<\/a> state abortion referendums since <em>Roe v. Wade<\/em> was overturned, pro-lifers have received another dose of bad news. In ruby-red South Dakota, a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dakotanewsnow.com\/2024\/06\/04\/poll-amendment-expand-south-dakota-abortion-access-has-nearly-20-point-lead\/\">poll<\/a> found that 53 percent of voters, including 46 percent of Republicans, support a ballot measure that would set up a trimester system for legalizing abortion (similar to <em>Roe<\/em>), while just 35 percent oppose it, a notable shift from the 46-44 advantage the pro-abortion side had in November. But pro-lifers cannot give up on this race just yet.<\/p>\n<p>South Dakota may not be the most populous state, but it represents the best opportunity for a victory in the near term (along with Florida, though only because amendments need 60 percent to pass in the Sunshine State). Despite the bad poll, there are genuine reasons for optimism.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2-long d-flex justify-content-center\" style=\"margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; \" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-1039578048\">\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-1379703300879-0\" class=\"mb-30\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-5738e1bdbb6f78600f9e801fb9576995 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-5738e1bdbb6f78600f9e801fb9576995\"><\/div>\n<p>If calculated using former President Donald Trump\u2019s vote margin in 2020 (a simplistic measure, but adequate for this analysis), South Dakota will be the reddest state yet to have an abortion referendum. Currently, that title belongs to Kentucky, which has a Trump margin of about 0.2 percent less than South Dakota. In 2022, the pro-abortion side won by about 5 points in Kentucky\u2019s referendum, suggesting that partisanship alone will not carry the pro-life side to victory. However, Kentucky\u2019s referendum was in a midterm year, and turnout was about 70 percent of what it was in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>In a presidential year, the pro-abortion side will need an even higher proportion of voters to split their tickets to secure a win. Higher turnout should benefit the pro-life side in a state as red as South Dakota, and immediate focus needs to be given to shoring up support among Republicans. While she may not be pro-life when it comes to puppies, Gov. Kristi Noem has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kristinoem.com\/news\/governor-noems-pro-life-record\">been quite strong<\/a> on this issue. Perhaps she could rehabilitate her image with a kindness-oriented campaign against the amendment. If not Noem, perhaps Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, seeking to become Republican leader in the Senate, could display some political skill and maneuver his political machine to help conservatives score a win. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Status Quo Bias<\/h2>\n<p>In addition to partisan lean, the pro-life side should benefit from \u201csmall c\u201d conservatism on this referendum. Status quo bias is a powerful phenomenon in politics. People tend to be skeptical of change, and the side preserving the status quo tends to <a href=\"https:\/\/catalist.us\/2021\/05\/yes-you-can-generally-trust-issue-polling-but-theres-a-catch\/\">overperform<\/a> polling. Practically, this means it is generally better to be the \u201cno\u201d side in a referendum. In Kentucky, the pro-abortion side benefited from status quo bias. If it passed, the referendum would have amended the Kentucky Constitution to say that \u201cnothing in this Constitution shall be construed to secure or protect a right to abortion or require the funding of abortion,\u201d but the \u201cno\u201d side winning did not change anything. Kentucky\u2019s abortion ban remained in effect, though pro-lifers are concerned about potential future court cases.<\/p>\n<p>In South Dakota, the pro-life side will benefit from status quo bias. A \u201cyes\u201d win would amend the South Dakota constitution and set up a trimester system that would effectively legalize abortion during the first two trimesters and allow for restrictions (though still with broad exceptions for the mother\u2019s health) in the third trimester. A \u201cno\u201d win would change nothing. South Dakota\u2019s abortion ban would remain in place, but theoretically the state legislature could implement any system it wished.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-e17a3a39c807b0019a81b1a898f9eb9b fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-6\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-e17a3a39c807b0019a81b1a898f9eb9b\"><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other Factors in Favor<\/h2>\n<p>Finally, the pro-abortion side has generally outspent the pro-life side by vast margins. This has happened in both blue and red states, and it happened in Kentucky, where the pro-life side was outspent by about 6:1. As of now, this hasn\u2019t happened yet in South Dakota, with the two sides running fairly even. South Dakota is not a state that requires an enormous amount of funding, and pro-lifers should not be caught flat-footed again. The days of 6:1 (or even sometimes 10:1) spending deficits should be over, especially in a small red state like South Dakota. Between partisanship, status quo bias, and fundraising parity, the structural elements of a referendum have never been better for pro-lifers.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Worth Trying to Win<\/h2>\n<p>South Dakota is a small state, but it is worth it for pro-lifers to go all in to win there.\u00a0 The referendums in Maryland and Colorado are already lost, and Florida will be an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/en-us\/nearly-three-five-registered-voters-florida-favor-expanding-abortion-access-ballot-measure\">uphill<\/a> (and expensive) battle, even with the 60 percent threshold for amendments. This race is easy to fund and unlikely to get too much attention from national Democrats. It also may be the only thing between pro-lifers and a 0-11 record on ballot measures (or worse, if more states add abortion referendums).<\/p>\n<p>With the GOP already waffling on abortion, another winless year could make political support even harder to come by in the future. The thousands of lives that will be saved are of course the most important result of a win in the referendum, but the symbolic value of a much-needed victory matters as well.   <\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-9e87f6b17c3fc23cc5bd50d12a6ca843 fdrlst__b89e9-after-post-content\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-9e87f6b17c3fc23cc5bd50d12a6ca843\"><\/div>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\">    \t\t\t\t\t   \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since Roe v. Wade&#8217;s overturn, pro-lifers have lost all seven state abortion referendums. Adding to their setbacks, a new poll in staunchly conservative South Dakota reveals 53% of voters, including 46% of Republicans, favor a ballot measure to establish a trimester-based abortion legalization system<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2735,"featured_media":2269307,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/2048px-South_Dakota_State_Capitol-e1718386876818.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[546],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2269306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-federalist"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/2048px-South_Dakota_State_Capitol-e1718386876818.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2269306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2735"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2269306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2269306\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2269307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2269306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2269306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2269306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}