{"id":2267185,"date":"2024-06-13T17:37:01","date_gmt":"2024-06-13T21:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trumps-odds-of-winning-presidency-hit-all-time-high-nearly-20-points-above-biden\/"},"modified":"2024-06-13T17:39:24","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T21:39:24","slug":"trumps-odds-of-winning-presidency-hit-all-time-high-nearly-20-points-above-biden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trumps-odds-of-winning-presidency-hit-all-time-high-nearly-20-points-above-biden\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump&#8217;s Presidential Winning Odds Reach Record High, Surpassing Biden by Nearly 20 Points"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftrumps-odds-of-winning-presidency-hit-all-time-high-nearly-20-points-above-biden%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2267185&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>As the 2024 U.S. Presidential \u200belection approaches, various forecasts suggest a contentious race between former President Donald\u2064 Trump\u2064 and incumbent President Joe Biden. Notable predictions include a 68% \u2063chance of Trump winning by The Economist and\u200d a 56% chance per The Hill, while FiveThirtyEight offers a tighter estimate, giving \u2063Biden \u2062a slight edge of 51% over Trump\u2019s \u206249%.\u200c Renowned historian Allan Lichtman \u200chas not made a definitive prediction yet but suggests Biden \u200dwould likely need to face significant setbacks to lose\u2063 against\u2062 Trump. <\/p>\n<p>In the realm\u2062 of oddsmakers, Sports Handle provides updated betting odds indicating Trump has a 58.6% likelihood of reclaiming \u200bthe White House, with Biden \u2064trailing at 39.1%. Prominent third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has \u200da 3.1% chance of winning, according to the site. The \u200dwebsite also lists \u200codds for other <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/campaign-2024-an-early-look-at-the-possible-republican-contenders\/\" title=\"Campaign 2024: An Early Look At The Possible Republican Contenders\">potential candidates<\/a>, including Michelle Obama, \u2063Nikki \u200cHaley, and various \u2063governors and \u200bpolitical figures. <\/p>\n<p>The predictions involve complex considerations and \u200dvary markedly\u2064 depending on the source,\u200d illustrating the inherent uncertainties of political forecasting. The overall message stresses that it&#8217;s still too early for absolute predictions about the election outcome, and\u200d emphasizes the diverse opinions\u2063 circulating \u200babout <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/soccer-more-questions-than-answers-as-england-limp-towards-world-cup\/\" title=\"Soccer-More questions than answers as England limp towards World Cup\">potential winners<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<header> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/news\/\">  News <\/a>   <span> <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/georgeupper\/\">  <\/a> <\/p>\n<p> <span>   By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/georgeupper\/%20\"><span>George C. Upper III<\/span><\/a> <\/span> <span>   June 13, 2024 at 12:18pm <\/span> <\/span>  <\/header>\n<section>\n<p>Everyone wants to know who\u2019s going to win the presidency in November, and the answer to that question will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/this-data-for-masked-vs-unmasked-counties-would-be-on-every-front-page-if-it-showed-a-different-result\/\" title=\"This Data For Masked Vs Unmasked Counties Would Be On Every Front Page, If It Showed a Different Result\">vary widely<\/a>, depending on whom you ask.<\/p>\n<p>For example, regular readers of The Western Journal may recall when Vivek Ramaswamy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/vivek-establishment-isnt-going-let-biden-trump-get-anywhere-near-finish-line-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">predicted<\/a> in December that the establishment would never let either former President Donald Trump or incumbent President Joe Biden win. (<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/campaign\/4313314-why-neither-biden-nor-trump-will-be-the-next-president\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nor was he alone<\/a> in that belief.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/interactive\/us-2024-election\/prediction-model\/president\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Economist<\/a> gives Trump a 68 percent chance of winning. <a href=\"https:\/\/elections2024.thehill.com\/forecast\/2024\/president\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Hill<\/a> predicts Trump to win as well, but only gives him a 56 percent chance. <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2024-election-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FiveThirtyEight<\/a>, on the other hand, gives Biden the edge \u2014 but only a slight one, 51-to-49. And historian Allan Lichtman, who has predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections correctly, told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/who-has-keys-white-house-historian-ace-record-calling-elections-weighs-trump-verdict\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fox News<\/a> recently that, while he hasn\u2019t yet made an official call for 2024 yet, \u201ca lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose to Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Take all that together, and it\u2019s probably a little too early for anyone to make a confident call about what\u2019s going to happen on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/house-committee-subpoenas-15-biden-cabinet-secretaries-alleged-scheme-tilt-scales-2024-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Election Day<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Anyone, that is, except the oddsmakers.<\/p>\n<p>According to sports betting website <a href=\"https:\/\/sportshandle.com\/us-election-odds-tracker\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Handle<\/a>, Trump has a 58.6 percent chance of re-taking the Oval Office, while Biden lags well behind him at 39.1 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Of the third-party candidates currently in the race, only one \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/campaign-killer-past-interviews-reveal-rfk-jr-s-real-opinion-oil-electric-cars\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<\/a>, at 3.1 percent \u2014 appears on the site\u2019s \u201cUS Election Winners Probability Dashboard,\u201d which lists the top 10 favorites.<\/p>\n<p>Kennedy, however, appears in fourth place on the list, behind Trump and Biden, of course \u2014 but also behind former first lady Michelle Obama, at 4.5 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Four of the remaining six rounding out the top 10 list are Democrats, presumably the favored choices of those who like to bet the long shots.<\/p>\n<div id=\"firefly-poll-container\">\n<p>Would you be willing to bet that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States?<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>California Gov. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/gavin-newsom-celebrates-california-economy-twitter-gets-fact-checked-immediately\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gavin Newsom<\/a> beats out Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/kamala-harris-mourns-palestinians-tells-anti-israeli-protester-value-respect-voice\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kamala Harris<\/a>, 2.8 percent to 2.2 percent, and Michigan Gov. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/gretchen-whitmer-conveniently-loses-connection-asked-awkward-question-hunter-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gretchen Whitmer<\/a> edges out former first lady <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/hillary-clinton-enrages-progressive-left-endorses-moderate-ny\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hillary Clinton<\/a>, 1 percent to 0.9 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Also on the list are former Trump U.N. Ambassador <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/trump-brings-nikki-haley-fold-announces-former-rival-will-likely-team\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nikki Haley<\/a> at 1.4 percent and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/trump-slashes-names-vp-shortlist-likes-ramaswamy-mccarthy-cruz-key-administration-roles-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ramaswamy<\/a> at 0.7 percent.<\/p>\n<p>The graph allows the user to input start and end dates and choose from a list of potential future presidents to view how their odds of winning the White House \u2014 at least according to the formulas used by the site \u2014 have changed over time.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to the 10 listed above, users can review the odds for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former mayor of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/u-n-peacekeepers-killed-in-central-african-republic-before-election\/\" title=\"U.N. peacekeepers killed in Central African Republic before election\">fourth-largest city<\/a> in Indiana Pete Buttigieg, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, former National Security Advisor Gen. Michael Flynn and Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips \u2014 who, to be honest, I had kind of forgotten about.<\/p>\n<p>Apparently, so had most of the oddsmakers, as he never scored more than 1 percent on this graph, which includes data going back to August 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Off course, any such model is only as good as the data on which it\u2019s based, and it\u2019s hard to say much about the quality of that data here, given that all Sports Handle says about it is that it comes \u201cfrom a diverse array of odds providers, ensuring a comprehensive and balanced perspective on the election forecasts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Whatever that \u201cdiverse array\u201d might be, the graph is updated every Thursday, according to the site.<\/p>\n<p>Do keep in mind, however, as the site is careful to remind us, that betting on political outcomes is illegal in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>So even if you prefer the long shots and think that, say, 2024 might turn out to be Hillary\u2019s year after all (Third time\u2019s a charm, right?), I wouldn\u2019t recommend putting any money on it.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div>\n<p><b><i>An Important Message from Our Staff:<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span>In just a few months, the world is going to change forever. The 2024 election is the single most important election of our lifetime. <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>We here at The Western Journal are committed to covering it in a way the establishment media simply will not: We will tell the truth, and they will lie.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>But Big Tech and the elites don\u2019t want the truth out. That\u2019s why they have cut us off from 90% of advertisers. Imagine if someone cut your monthly income by 90%. That\u2019s what they\u2019ve done to people like us. <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>As a staff, we are asking you to <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>join us<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>  to fight this once-in-a-lifetime fight. Without you not only will The Western Journal fail, but America will fail also. As Benjamin Franklin said, \u201cWe must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Will you support The Western Journal today and <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>become a member<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>? <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>A Western Journal <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>Membership<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>  costs less than one coffee and breakfast sandwich each month, and it gets you access to ALL of our content \u2014 news, commentary, and premium articles. You\u2019ll experience a radically reduced number of ads, and most importantly you will be vitally supporting the fight for America\u2019s soul in 2024.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>This is the time. America will live or die based on what happens this year. Please <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>join us<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>  to get the real truth out and to fight the elites, Big Tech, and the people who want America to fail. Together, we really can save the country.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Thank you for your support!<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span>P.S. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>Please stand with us<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>!<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"after-article-tags\">\n<p>  Tags:<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/2024-election\/\" rel=\"tag\">2024 election<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" rel=\"tag\">Donald Trump<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/gavin-newsom\/\" rel=\"tag\">Gavin Newsom<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/gretchen-whitmer\/\" rel=\"tag\">Gretchen Whitmer<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/hillary-clinton\/\" rel=\"tag\">Hillary Clinton<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" rel=\"tag\">Joe Biden<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" rel=\"tag\">Kamala Harris<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/michelle-obama\/\" rel=\"tag\">Michelle Obama<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/nikki-haley\/\" rel=\"tag\">Nikki Haley<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/politics\/\" rel=\"tag\">Politics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/robert-f-kennedy-jr\/\" rel=\"tag\">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tag\/vivek-ramaswamy\/\" rel=\"tag\">Vivek Ramaswamy<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<div id=\"author-info-44802\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/georgeupper\/\">  <\/a> <\/p>\n<div>\n<p><label for=\"summary-tab-radio-44802\">Summary<\/label><label for=\"more-info-tab-radio-44802\">More<span> Biographical Information<\/span><\/label><label for=\"posts-tab-radio-44802\">Recent<span> Posts<\/span><\/label><label for=\"contact-tab-radio-44802\" onclick=\"if( typeof grecaptcha=='undefined' ) { let cap_s=document.createElement( 'script' ); cap_s.src='https:\/\/www.google.com\/recaptcha\/api.js?render=6LeJFcsUAAAAAPsIEqvB1EebWbZfqRUe6ebMpGy7'; document.body.appendChild( cap_s ); }\">Contact<\/label><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>George Upper is the former Editor-in-Chief of The Western Journal and was a weekly co-host of &#8220;WJ Live,&#8221; powered by The Western Journal. He is currently a contributing editor in the areas of faith, politics and culture. A former U.S. Army special operator, teacher and consultant, he is a lifetime member of the NRA and an active volunteer leader in his church. Born in Foxborough, Massachusetts, he has lived most of his life in central North Carolina.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>  George Upper, is the former editor-in-chief of The Western Journal and is now a contributing editor in the areas of faith, politics and culture. He currently serves as the connections pastor at Awestruck Church in Greensboro, North Carolina. He is a former U.S. Army special operator, teacher, manager and consultant. Born in Massachusetts, he graduated from Foxborough High School before joining the Army and spending most of the next three years at Fort Bragg. He holds bachelor&#8217;s and master&#8217;s degrees in English as well as a Master&#8217;s in Business Administration, all from the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. He and his wife life only a short drive from his three children, their spouses and his grandchildren. He is a lifetime member of the NRA and in his spare time he shoots, reads a lot of Lawrence Block and John D. MacDonald, and watches Bruce Campbell movies. He is a fan of individual freedom, Tommy Bahama, fine-point G-2 pens and the Oxford comma. <\/p>\n<p>  Birthplace <\/p>\n<p>  Foxborough, Massachusetts <\/p>\n<p>  Nationality <\/p>\n<p>  American <\/p>\n<p>  Honors\/Awards <\/p>\n<p>  Beta Gamma Sigma <\/p>\n<p>  Education <\/p>\n<p>  B.A., English, UNCG; M.A., English, UNCG; MBA, UNCG <\/p>\n<p>  Location <\/p>\n<p>  North Carolina <\/p>\n<p>  Languages Spoken <\/p>\n<p>  English <\/p>\n<p>  Topics of Expertise <\/p>\n<p>  Faith, Business, Leadership and Management, Military, Politics <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>News by George C. Upper III, June 13, 2024 &#8211; The upcoming presidential election results are eagerly anticipated and predictions vary. For instance, Vivek Ramaswamy, previously mentioned in The Western Journal, made an early forecast last December<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2010,"featured_media":2267186,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Donald-Trump-and-Joe-Biden.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2267185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Donald-Trump-and-Joe-Biden.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2267185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2010"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2267185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2267185\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2267186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2267185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2267185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2267185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}