{"id":2266831,"date":"2024-06-13T11:30:02","date_gmt":"2024-06-13T15:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/historian-who-correctly-predicted-9-of-last-10-elections-reveals-impact-of-trump-conviction\/"},"modified":"2024-06-13T11:33:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T15:33:06","slug":"historian-who-correctly-predicted-9-of-last-10-elections-reveals-impact-of-trump-conviction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/historian-who-correctly-predicted-9-of-last-10-elections-reveals-impact-of-trump-conviction\/","title":{"rendered":"Historian Who Accurately Forecasted 9 of Last 10 Elections Discusses Effects of Trump Conviction"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">28<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fhistorian-who-correctly-predicted-9-of-last-10-elections-reveals-impact-of-trump-conviction%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2266831&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The \u200chistorian Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate predictions of presidential elections, commented on the potential impact of \u200cformer President Donald\u200d Trump&#8217;s\u200b convictions on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/exclusive-rnc-launches-new-year-round-election-integrity-department-ahead-of-2024\/\" title=\"RNC creates year-round Election Integrity Department for 2024.\">upcoming presidential race<\/a>. Lichtman, who developed a predictive formula with \u200dmathematician\u200d Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, expressed that it is currently too early to\u2062 predict the \u200bfallout of Trump&#8217;s legal issues \u2064on the\u200b election outcome. Despite Trump&#8217;s solid base, \u2062the concern remains about how moderate, swing, and independent \u2063voters might\u200b react, but the true \u200dinfluence will only be clearer after \u200bthe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/blm-and-antifa-activists-who-tried-to-frame-right-wing-group-for-crimes-convicted-of-arson\/\" title=\"BLM and Antifa Activists Who Tried to Frame Right Wing Group for Crimes Convicted of Arson\">sentencing hearing scheduled<\/a> for\u2063 July 11, which is shortly \u200dbefore the Republican convention.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman&#8217;s \u200bpredictive system involves\u2062 13 \u2064&#8221;keys,&#8221; \u200dsuch as party mandate, policy change, scandal, and incumbent charisma, helping determine whether\u200c the \u2062incumbent party will stay in power. According to\u200d Lichtman, President Joe Biden has lost \u200bsome keys due to the 2022 midterm results and lacks the charisma key.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond the legal \u200bissues\u2064 of Trump, the focus should\u200c be on more immediate \u2064voter concerns like age, management\u2063 of border policies, and international relations, rather than isolated \u2063legal incidents. The\u200c election, as \u2064per\u200c experts, will \u200dpivot\u2062 more on these broader \u200bissues impacting everyday lives rather than \u2062Trump&#8217;s convictions \u2063alone.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<header> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/news\/\">  News <\/a>   <span> <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/russdavis\/\">  <\/a> <\/p>\n<p> <span>   By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/russdavis\/%20\"><span>Jack Davis<\/span><\/a> <\/span> <span>   June 13, 2024 at 7:14am <\/span> <\/span>  <\/header>\n<section>\n<p>A historian who has called nine of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/are-latinos-really-abandoning-dems-poll-analysis-gives-new-insight\/\" title=\"Are Latinos Really Abandoning Dems? Poll Analysis Gives New Insight\">past 10 presidential elections<\/a> said it is far too soon to tell if former President Donald Trump\u2019s convictions will change the course of the presidential election.<\/p>\n<p>Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University, told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/who-has-keys-white-house-historian-ace-record-calling-elections-weighs-trump-verdict\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fox News<\/a> that despite gaggles of instant polls, the real impact of voters will not begin to show itself until next month.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re not going to know much until the sentencing hearing on July 11, right before the Republican convention,\u201d Lichtman said.<\/p>\n<p>He said the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/trump-campaign-releases-statement-hunter-biden-verdict-calls-biden-crime-family\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">convictions<\/a> for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/are-the-charges-brought-against-the-trump-organizations-cfo-part-of-a-witch-hunt-experts-weigh-in\/\" title=\"Are The Charges Brought Against The Trump Organization\u2019s CFO Part Of A Witch Hunt? Experts Weigh In\">falsifying business records<\/a> do not appear to have impacted Trump\u2019s base, but the real question is how much voters beyond it will care.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t know how this might affect moderate, swing, independent voters. So really, we have got to look over time and not rely on instant, unreliable punditry,\u201d the historian said.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman developed a formula in 1981 for predicting presidential elections in collaboration with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe reconceptualize presidential elections not as Carter versus Reagan, Republican versus Democrat, liberal versus conservative, but in geophysical terms,\u201d he said. \u201cStability: The White House party keeps power. Earthquake: The White House party is turned out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The system has 13 true-or-false questions. When eight or more of what Lichtman calls \u201ckeys\u201d are false, the party holding the White House will lose it.<\/p>\n<p>Using the system, he correctly called the 2012, 2016 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/2020-biden-won-2-key-states-115k-now-lost-364k-voters-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2020<\/a> presidential races.<\/p>\n<div id=\"firefly-poll-container\">\n<p>Will Trump win in November?<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cThe keys are an alternative to the polls, which are not predictors. They\u2019re snapshots, they\u2019re abused, not used as predictors. And the pundits, you know, who are a lot of fun, but they\u2019re sports talk radio. They have no scientific basis for any of their predictions,\u201d Lichtman said.<\/p>\n<p>He said there would need to be many factors at work to give Trump a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/biden-ignores-pro-hamas-protesters-monument-vandalism-trumps-2020-exec-order-end\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">victory<\/a> in November.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman\u2019s keys are: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign\/military failure, foreign\/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.<\/p>\n<p>President Joe Biden has \u201clost what I call the mandate key based on midterm elections, because the Democrats lost seats in 2022, they needed to win seats to win that key. And he loses the charisma key because he\u2019s no Franklin Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy,\u201d the historian said.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman said the keys to watch are whether independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets 10 percent national support; social unrest connected to anti-Israel protests; and Biden\u2019s efforts in the Ukraine and Gaza wars.<\/p>\n<p>He said talk of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/watch-biden-can-repeat-word-15-times-row-hecklers-derail-speech\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">replacing Biden<\/a> would hurt Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith Biden running, he wins my incumbency key: sitting president. He wins the party contest: uncontested. Essentially, that means he wins two keys off the top,\u201d Lichtman said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis nonsense about Biden stepping down points to the dangers of off-the-top-of-the-head punditry and commentary that is not based on any scientific understanding of how elections work,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe keys provide a way of breaking the iron triangle of the political-industrial complex,\u201d the historian said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe candidates themselves have to run different kinds of campaigns,\u201d Lichtman said. \u201cCampaign by the keys, which is, you campaign on your vision. If you\u2019re an incumbent, what it is you have done and what you expect to do. If you\u2019re a challenger, what\u2019s your clear vision for America?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He said his official prediction for this fall\u2019s race will come later this year.<\/p>\n<p>In 2020, Lichtman noted that treaties do not often turn voters\u2019 heads, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.american.edu\/cas\/news\/13-keys-election-prediction.cfm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news release<\/a> from American University.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI almost never turn a key based on a treaty unless it is of great significance and broadly acclaimed in the United States,\u201d he said then. \u201cSince I began predicting elections according to the Keys prior to the 1984 election, I have turned Key 11 for the White House party only once, for the monumental arms control treaty between the US and the Soviet Union during the second term of President Ronald Reagan.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In an Op-Ed for <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/campaign\/4712838-trumps-felony-convictions-are-making-minimal-impact-on-his-campaign\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Hill<\/a>, pollsters Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman argued that what happens from here on out is what matters.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[I]f Biden fails to soothe voter concerns over his age and fitness, Trump\u2019s convictions will be nothing more than a footnote. Conversely, if Trump appears overly bombastic and irresponsible, his convictions may resonate a little more in the context of his general temperament for office,\u201d they wrote.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUltimately, this election will be decided by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/reality-bites-the-democrats\/\" title=\"Reality Bites the Democrats\">kitchen-table issues<\/a> that impact Americans far more than it will be decided by Donald Trump\u2019s legal issues,\u201d Schoen and Cooperman said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd notwithstanding what Biden did this week on <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/4703294-biden-southern-border-immigration-asylum-executive-action\/\">the border<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/4709958-biden-pointe-du-hoc-democracy\/\">in Normandy<\/a> \u2014 changes to border policy have been too little, too late. And it\u2019s unlikely, however moving and appropriate, that Biden\u2019s remarks in France shifted voter concerns to issues of democracy and maintaining international order,\u201d the pollsters said.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div>\n<p><b><i>A Note from Our Deputy Managing Editor:<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span>I heard a chilling comment the other day: \u201cWe don\u2019t even know if an election will be held in 2024.\u201d <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>That wasn\u2019t said by a conspiracy theorist or a doomsday prophet. No, former U.S. national security advisor Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn said that to the founder of The Western Journal, Floyd Brown.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Gen. Flynn\u2019s warning means that the 2024 election is the most important election for every single living American. If we lose this one to the wealthy elites who hate us, hate God, and hate what America stands for, we can only assume that 248 years of American history and the values we hold dear to our hearts may soon vanish.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>The end game is here, and as Benjamin Franklin said, \u201cWe must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>All of this means that <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>without you<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>, it\u2019s over. We have the platform, the journalists, and the experience to fight back hard, but Big Tech is strangling us through advertising blacklists, shadow bans, and algorithms. Did you know that we\u2019ve been blacklisted by 90% of advertisers? Without direct support from you, our readers, we can\u2019t continue the fight.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Can we count on <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>your support<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>? It may not seem like much, but a <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>Western Journal Membership<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>  can make all the difference in the world because when you support us directly, you cut Big Tech out of the picture. They lose control. <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>A monthly Western Journal Membership costs less than one coffee and breakfast sandwich each month, and it gets you access to ALL of our content \u2014 news, commentary, and premium articles. You\u2019ll experience a radically reduced number of ads, and most importantly you will be vitally supporting the fight for America\u2019s soul in 2024.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>We are literally counting on you because without our members, The Western Journal would cease to exist. Will you <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/?utm_source=site&#038;utm_medium=westernjournalism&#038;utm_campaign=authorpitch\"><i><span>join us<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span>  in the fight? <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Sincerely,<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Josh Manning<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>Deputy Managing Editor<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span>The Western Journal<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"author-info-44685\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/russdavis\/\">  <\/a> <\/p>\n<div>\n<p><label for=\"summary-tab-radio-44685\">Summary<\/label><label for=\"more-info-tab-radio-44685\">More<span> Biographical Information<\/span><\/label><label for=\"posts-tab-radio-44685\">Recent<span> Posts<\/span><\/label><label for=\"contact-tab-radio-44685\" onclick=\"if( typeof grecaptcha=='undefined' ) { let cap_s=document.createElement( 'script' ); cap_s.src='https:\/\/www.google.com\/recaptcha\/api.js?render=6LeJFcsUAAAAAPsIEqvB1EebWbZfqRUe6ebMpGy7'; document.body.appendChild( cap_s ); }\">Contact<\/label><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Jack Davis is a freelance writer who joined The Western Journal in July 2015 and chronicled the campaign that saw President Donald Trump elected. Since then, he has written extensively for The Western Journal on the Trump administration as well as foreign policy and military issues.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>  Jack Davis is a freelance writer who joined The Western Journal in July 2015 and chronicled the campaign that saw President Donald Trump elected. Since then, he has written extensively for The Western Journal on the Trump administration as well as foreign policy and military issues. <br \/> Jack can be reached at jackwritings1@gmail.com. <\/p>\n<p>  Location <\/p>\n<p>  New York City <\/p>\n<p>  Languages Spoken <\/p>\n<p>  English <\/p>\n<p>  Topics of Expertise <\/p>\n<p>  Politics, Foreign Policy, Military &#038; Defense Issues <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Historian Allan Lichtman, who accurately predicted nine out of the last ten U.S. presidential elections, told Fox News it&#8217;s too early to determine how former President Donald Trump&#8217;s convictions might impact the upcoming election. Lichtman, based at American University, emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the electoral effects of these events<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":661,"featured_media":2266832,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Biden-Lichtman-Trump.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[548],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2266831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-conservative-news-daily"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Biden-Lichtman-Trump.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2266831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/661"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2266831"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2266831\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2266832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2266831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2266831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2266831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}