{"id":2266058,"date":"2024-06-12T14:36:01","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T18:36:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ignore-the-polls-republicans-have-a-major-voter-turnout-problem\/"},"modified":"2024-06-12T14:38:50","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T18:38:50","slug":"ignore-the-polls-republicans-have-a-major-voter-turnout-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ignore-the-polls-republicans-have-a-major-voter-turnout-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls Aside, Republicans Face Significant Voter Turnout Issues"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fignore-the-polls-republicans-have-a-major-voter-turnout-problem%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2266058&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The \u200barticle discusses the\u2063 perceptions among some conservative influencers on platform X that Donald Trump is set to win the 2024 presidential election, based on polling \u2064data showing his\u2063 lead in\u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/huge-sidney-powell-witness-whom-ny-times-described-as-always-the-smartest-person-in-the-room-concludes-hundreds-of-thousands-of-votes-transferred-from-trump-to-biden-in-all-battleground-states\/\" title=\"HUGE! Sidney Powell Witness Whom NY Times Described as \"Always the Smartest Person in the Room\" Concludes Hundreds of Thousands of Votes Transferred from Trump to Biden IN ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES\">key battleground states<\/a> and even \u2063traditionally Democratic states. However, it warns against premature celebration, highlighting a recent closer-than-expected special \u2063election result in Ohio&#8217;s\u200c 6th Congressional District,\u2064 where Republican Michael Rulli won by a narrower margin than anticipated. The piece also points out that Democrats have been \u2064outperforming expectations in various\u2064 recent elections, suggesting a trend \u200dthat contradicts poll-based\u200b forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>The article goes on to criticize\u200d the reliance \u2064on traditional polling as a predictor of election outcomes, arguing that sophisticated \u200dDemocratic election strategies and the involvement \u200cof <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/eyeing-supreme-court-vacancy-left-wing-dark-money-group-pushes-ketanji-brown-jackson-for-top-appeals-court\/\" title=\"Eyeing Supreme Court Vacancy, Left-Wing Dark Money Group Pushes Ketanji Brown Jackson for Top Appeals Court\">left-wing nonprofits<\/a> in voter registration and mobilization are\u200c not adequately accounted for by polls. It mentions several organizations and initiatives\u200c that \u2064are alleged \u200cto support Democratic\u200d voter turnout, potentially skewing the \u2063effectiveness of polls as indicators of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nyt-polls-may-be-headed-for-another-major-miss-overstating-dem-support-in-battleground-states\/\" title=\"NYT: Polls May Be Headed For Another Major Miss, Overstating Dem Support In Battleground States\">actual election results<\/a>.\u200b The main takeaway\u200c is a call for Republicans to adapt and engage more actively in mobilizing their voters, taking into account the \u2062changing dynamics of electioneering and voter participation.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-content\">\n<p>If you read nothing but posts from conservative influencers on X, you\u2019d be convinced that Donald Trump has already won the 2024 election. <\/p>\n<p>The source of this sensationalized optimism comes from public polling data, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">shows<\/a> the former president with leads in key battleground states he needs to win this November. Some surveys also seemingly indicate that traditionally \u201cblue states\u201d like <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/2024\/virginia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Virginia<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/2024\/minnesota\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Minnesota<\/a> are in play. <\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2-long d-flex justify-content-center\" style=\"margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; \" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-284178195\">\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-1379703300879-0\" class=\"mb-30\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-595d619fa9e4f07eacd025f1f15b4d64 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-595d619fa9e4f07eacd025f1f15b4d64\"><\/div>\n<p>With numbers like these and Biden\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/approval\/joe-biden\/approval-rating\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">approval rating<\/a> sinking faster than <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/tag\/rachel-levine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Rachel Levine<\/a> in a swimming pool, there\u2019s no way Trump can lose, or so the conventional thinking goes. <\/p>\n<p>While it\u2019s certainly possible the polls are accurate, the outcome of recent elections should give conservatives reason to pump the brakes on celebrating before any ballots have been cast. Case in point: A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/georgia-republicans-roar-back-dominate-special-election-for-state-seat\/\" title=\"Georgia Republicans Roar Back: Dominate Special Election For State Seat\">special election held<\/a> in Ohio\u2019s 6th Congressional District on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>The matchup between Democrat Michael Kripchak and Republican Michael Rulli wasn\u2019t expected to be a close race. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/ohio-congress-house-special-election-48362c9a1d784723d5c0faf96fc356b7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Associated Press<\/a>, former GOP Rep. Bill Johnson \u2014 who represented the district until his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/live-updates\/2024\/01\/02\/congress\/bill-johnson-plans-resignation-january-youngstown-state-house-00133496\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">resignation<\/a> earlier this year \u2014 \u201cwon his last four elections by more than 30 percentage points.\u201d Trump similarly won the district by roughly 30 points during the 2020 contest.<\/p>\n<p>While Rulli defeated Kripchak in Tuesday\u2019s matchup and expanded Republicans\u2019 thin House majority, the election was much closer than originally predicted. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/06\/11\/us\/elections\/results-ohio-us-house-6-special.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Preliminary results<\/a> indicate Rulli won the race by 9.4 points \u2014 a more than 20-point shift in Democrats favor. <\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-82508ac6279cbceadc3112c1ee92e5d3 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-6\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-82508ac6279cbceadc3112c1ee92e5d3\"><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Consistent Trend<\/h2>\n<p>But maybe last night\u2019s election was a fluke. After all, voter turnout was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wtrf.com\/top-stories\/poll-workers-report-low-turnout-for-ohios-special-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">seemingly<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/ohio-special-election-congress-results-1911576\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">low<\/a> and will likely be higher during this fall\u2019s presidential contest. <\/p>\n<p>While such reasoning is certainly viable, it doesn\u2019t take into account the growing list of recent elections in which Democrats have widely outperformed expectations at the ballot box. <\/p>\n<p>Take the 2022 midterms, for example. As The Blaze\u2019s Daniel Horowitz <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/Tom2S\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">observed<\/a> in November, the majority of polls predicting the outcome of the country\u2019s biggest gubernatorial and Senate races overestimated Republicans\u2019 chances of victory.<\/p>\n<p>In Nevada\u2019s Senate race, for instance, the RealClearPolitics polling average <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2022\/senate\/Nevada.html#!\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">showed<\/a> Republican Adam Laxalt beating Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by 3.4 points. Cortez Masto ended up winning the election by 0.9 points. Similar trends were also seen in Michigan\u2019s gubernatorial race, in which Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2022\/governor\/Michigan.html#!\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">defeated<\/a> Republican Tudor Dixon by 10.6 points despite the RCP average projecting the former to win by only 1 point. <\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-1c68a2c534fe813eb93a095cd150677d fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-10\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-1c68a2c534fe813eb93a095cd150677d\"><\/div>\n<p>These alarming trends continued into 2023. A FiveThirtyEight analysis <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/538\/democrats-winning-big-special-elections\/story?id=103315703\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">published<\/a> in September found that Democrats not only won the majority of special elections between January and September 2023, but that they over-performed their projected margins. Even in the smattering of races Republicans won, Democrats managed to surpass expectations.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats\u2019 electoral hot streak was also apparent in off-year elections in November, in which their party won Kentucky\u2019s gubernatorial race, a Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat, passed a ballot amendment that enshrined baby-killing into the Ohio Constitution, and took unified control of Virginia\u2019s General Assembly. Republicans performed so poorly that they were left to brag about GOP Gov. Tate Reeves winning reelection in dark-red Mississippi by just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/election\/2023\/results\/mississippi\/governor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">3.2 points<\/a>. (Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/election\/2020\/results\/state\/mississippi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">won<\/a> the state by 16.5 points in the 2020 election.)<\/p>\n<p>Democrats more recently won a February special election in New York\u2019s 3rd Congressional District to fill former GOP Rep. George Santos\u2019 seat. Democrat Tom Suozzi <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/2024-election\/results\/new-york-special-election-3rd-district\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">defeated<\/a> Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip by 7.8 points \u2014 more than double the 3.7-point lead Suozzi was projected to win by, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/house\/general\/2024\/new-york\/district-03\/philip-vs-suozzi-special-election\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">RCP polling average<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ballots Matter More Than Votes<\/h2>\n<p>While a long-used tool to predict election outcomes and margins, electoral polling has largely become obsolete because it can\u2019t account for the highly-sophisticated <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/tag\/democrat-election-machine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">election machine<\/a> Democrats have spent years building. <\/p>\n<p>On the nongovernmental side, <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2023\/08\/16\/meet-the-tax-exempt-charity-secretly-bankrolling-democrats-get-out-the-vote-operations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">left-wing nonprofits<\/a> funded by <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2023\/03\/09\/report-democrats-are-weaponizing-nonprofits-to-run-partisan-voter-registration-drives\/\">leftist<\/a> billionaires evade federal law by targeting and registering Democrat-friendly demographics, such as racial minorities, college-educated women, and young people. After these likely-Democrat voters are on the voter rolls, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/kamala-harris-condemns-d-c-demonstrators-despite-past-encouragement-of-violent-blm-mobs\/\" title=\"Kamala Harris condemns D.C. demonstrators despite past encouragement of violent BLM mobs\">left-wing activists<\/a> and groups <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2022\/12\/28\/harvesting-low-effort-votes-is-working-great-for-democrats-so-theyre-going-for-more\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">chase and harvest<\/a> these low-effort votes in the weeks leading up to Election Day.<\/p>\n<p>Organizations such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/tag\/u-s-alliance-for-election-excellence\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. Alliance for Election Excellence<\/a> \u2014 the newest iteration of the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2021\/10\/12\/the-2020-election-wasnt-stolen-it-was-bought-by-mark-zuckerberg\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Zuckbucks<\/a>\u201d scheme used to boost Biden and Democrats in the 2020 election \u2014 are also attempting to influence election operations in various localities throughout the country. According to its <a href=\"https:\/\/electionexcellence.org\/our-community\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">website<\/a>, election offices in key battleground states are active members of the Alliance, including Nevada\u2019s Clark County and <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2023\/04\/06\/exclusive-dekalb-county-officials-skirted-georgia-law-to-acquire-funds-from-left-wing-dark-money-elections-group\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Georgia\u2019s DeKalb County<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p><strong>[READ:[READ:<a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2024\/05\/15\/republicans-need-to-chase-ballots-from-every-low-turnout-voter-who-polls-for-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Republicans Need To Chase Ballots From Every Low-Turnout Voter Who Polls For Trump<\/a>]<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>At the same time, Biden is actively weaponizing the federal government\u2019s taxpayer-funded resources to conduct voter registration drives benefiting Democrats. More commonly known as \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/tag\/bidenbucks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bidenbucks<\/a>,\u201d the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/presidential-actions\/2021\/03\/07\/executive-order-on-promoting-access-to-voting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">executive order<\/a> signed by Biden in March 2021 instructed hundreds of federal agencies to increase their voter registration and GOTV activities \u2014 which Congress never authorized. <\/p>\n<p>In fulfilling this mandate, agencies are tasked with coordinating with so-called \u201cnonpartisan third-party organizations\u201d approved by the White House to supply \u201cvoter registration services on agency premises.\u201d Conservative media and good government groups have since discovered these organizations are extremely left-wing, such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.influencewatch.org\/non-profit\/american-civil-liberties-union-aclu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ACLU<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.influencewatch.org\/non-profit\/demos\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Demos<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>(A lawsuit <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2024\/05\/30\/members-of-congress-and-state-election-officials-ask-scotus-to-stop-bidenbucks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">challenging<\/a> the legality of this order is pending before the U.S. Supreme Court.)<\/p>\n<p>Despite conservatives\u2019 hype, election polls are meaningless. The only thing that matters in modern U.S. elections is getting ballots into boxes. Until Republicans learn to chase ballots and compete with the Democrats\u2019 election machine, they can continue to expect to lose every significant election under the sun. <\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-fedf31ca4906180bd996135c517fff79 fdrlst__b89e9-after-post-content\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-fedf31ca4906180bd996135c517fff79\"><\/div>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\">    \t\t\t\t\t   \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you only follow conservative influencers on X, you might believe Donald Trump has clinched the 2024 election. This belief stems from public polls showing him leading in crucial battleground states for November. Some surveys also appear to support this view<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":539,"featured_media":2266059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/3003879884_1e5d052451_o.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2266058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/3003879884_1e5d052451_o.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2266058","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/539"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2266058"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2266058\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2266059"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2266058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2266058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2266058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}