{"id":2256406,"date":"2024-05-31T06:31:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-31T10:31:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-big-biden-panic-the-president-is-trailing-but-perhaps-the-guilty-verdict-against-trump-will-save-him\/"},"modified":"2024-05-31T06:38:07","modified_gmt":"2024-05-31T10:38:07","slug":"the-big-biden-panic-the-president-is-trailing-but-perhaps-the-guilty-verdict-against-trump-will-save-him","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-big-biden-panic-the-president-is-trailing-but-perhaps-the-guilty-verdict-against-trump-will-save-him\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden&#8217;s Challenge: Trailing President Hopes Trump Verdict Will Turn the Tide"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fthe-big-biden-panic-the-president-is-trailing-but-perhaps-the-guilty-verdict-against-trump-will-save-him%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2256406&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The\u200c text discusses the challenges faced \u200bby the Democratic Party in \u200dthe upcoming election, focusing on Biden&#8217;s struggle against Trump. It\u200d highlights concerns about Biden&#8217;s campaign, the impact\u200d of Trump&#8217;s conviction, and how current polls reflect\u2064 a close race. The\u200d narrative delves into various aspects affecting the election outcome and the uncertainties surrounding both candidates&#8217; prospects. The article explores the Democratic Party&#8217;s hurdles in the upcoming election, spotlighting Biden&#8217;s battle against Trump. It raises alarm about Biden&#8217;s campaign, the aftermath of Trump&#8217;s \u200bconviction, and \u2062the tight race \u200cdepicted in recent\u200b polls. The discussion deepens \u2064into factors\u2063 shaping the election&#8217;s results and the unpredictable\u2064 paths ahead for \u2064both \u200dcontenders.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>In a <em>Saturday Night Live <\/em>skit spoofing the 1988 presidential debates, Dana Carvey portrayed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/george-h-w-bush\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>George H.W. Bush<\/a> emitting a word salad of campaign slogans while trying to fill his allotted time: \u201cOn track\u2026 stay the course\u2026 a thousand points of light\u2026 stay the course.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Jon Lovitz, playing that year\u2019s Democratic nominee, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/policy\/economy\/498836\/dukakis-kerry-romney\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Michael Dukakis<\/a>, shot back, \u201cI can\u2019t believe I\u2019m losing to this guy.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>(Thomas Fluharty for the Washington Examiner)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Democratic strategists find themselves <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-israel-gaza-ceasefire-protest-an-insurrection\/\" title=\"Marjorie Taylor Greene labels Israel-Gaza ceasefire protest as 'insurrection'.\">expressing similar sentiments<\/a> about this year\u2019s race for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/white-house\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>White House<\/a> and former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a>, except they are not at all amused. Some are shocked. Many profess to be terrified, regarding Trump as an authoritarian threat to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/desantis-says-scotus-nominee-should-be-faithful-to-the-constitution\/\" title=\"DeSantis Says SCOTUS Nominee Should Be \u2018Faithful To The Constitution\u2019\">entire political system<\/a>. Trump is also now a convicted felon. Democrats are reportedly circulating worst-case scenarios among themselves, though the guilty verdict could change the fundamentals to their benefit.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHow is this even a close race?\u201d a Democrat working on congressional campaigns this year told the <em>Washington Examiner <\/em>when asked to sum up the prevailing sentiment. \u201cMuch less, how can we possibly be losing?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yet a considerable amount of their angst is directed at the Democrat sitting in the Oval Office, President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a>. The <em>New York Times<\/em>\u2019s Ezra Klein, a plugged-in liberal pundit, cranked out a list of seven theories for why the man at the top of the ticket is losing. And he did ultimately place the blame squarely on Biden.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe electorate hasn\u2019t turned on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Democrats<\/a>; a crucial group of voters has turned on Biden,\u201d Klein wrote. <em>New York <\/em>magazine\u2019s Jonathan Chait said much the same thing. \u201cThe point here is that Democrats have a Joe Biden problem, not a partywide problem,\u201d he wrote. \u201cRegular, mainstream Democratic candidates are holding up just fine in the purple states.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>President Joe Biden speaks about the economy, Tuesday March 19, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo\/Jacquelyn Martin)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>That\u2019s still true of Democratic Senate candidates in places such as Arizona and Nevada. But Biden is tied with Trump in one recent poll of Virginia, a state that hasn\u2019t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004. Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) has conceded that Minnesota, the only state that didn\u2019t vote for Ronald Reagan in 1984 and last went Republican at the presidential level in Richard Nixon\u2019s 49-state landslide in 1972, is in play.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s going to be close out here,\u201d the Democratic Governors Association chairman told the <em>Washington Post<\/em>. \u201cWe\u2019re not at a given. We take it seriously. We do.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A <em>Cook Political Report <\/em>survey conducted by both Democratic and Republican pollsters found Trump leading in six of seven <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/latest-presidential-polls-biden-tightens-race-in-key-battleground-states-but-trump-still-leads\/\" title=\"New Polls Show Biden Closing Gap in Crucial Swing States, Trump Maintains Lead\">top battleground states<\/a> and tied with Biden in Wisconsin. The states\u2019 voters prefer Trump to Biden on bringing prices back down by 16 points, with 54% saying that is the best metric by which to judge the economy\u2019s health. The <em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>polling average has Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/elections\/president\/2024\/battleground-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>on top in all seven<\/a>, cumulatively by 3.1 points. Trump is up by 5.4 points in Nevada, a state he lost in his two previous tries. <\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Former U.S. Capitol Police Sgt. Aquilino Gonell is joined by former Police Officer Harry Dunn as he campaigns for Biden on May 29 in Las Vegas. (L.E. Baskow\/Las Vegas Review-Journal via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Biden\u2019s age is a factor. So is the economy, with the cost of living still high, inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred rate despite <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/consumer-spending-was-flat-in-september\/\" title=\"Consumer Spending Was Flat in September\">multiple interest rate hikes<\/a>, which themselves make mortgages more expensive, and many voters weary of Biden\u2019s happy talk about \u201cBidenomics.\u201d The president\u2019s black and Hispanic support is soft, with Trump attracting a surprisingly diverse crowd for his rally in the Bronx. The Israel-Hamas war drives a wedge in the Democratic coalition, with progressive claims of \u201cgenocide\u201d in Gaza possibly being enough to peel off some left-wing voters.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis has been a constant, constant problem. His desire to claim credit is a huge obstacle to connecting with voters on this issue,\u201d David Axelrod, the lead strategist for former President Barack Obama\u2019s campaigns, told the <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em>. \u201cWe learned this in 2011 and 2012. You can cite data until the cows come home, but what counts is how people are perceiving the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>James Carville, another top Democratic strategist who has publicly criticized the Biden campaign, helped guide Bill Clinton to the White House in 1992 by running against \u201cthe worst economy since the Great Depression.\u201d But the recession that formed the basis of that claim had technically been over since March 1991, before Clinton even declared his candidacy.<\/p>\n<p>The fact that strategists of this magnitude are talking about their Biden worries so loudly suggests their concerns are shared at the party\u2019s highest levels. It is especially hard to imagine that Axelrod, who has sounded the alarm about Biden so often the president is said to have called him a \u201cprick,\u201d stray too far from Obamaworld. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you go out there and do a focus group, the focus groups all say, \u2018He\u2019s 200 years old. You got to be kidding me.\u2019 And the worst part about it is for unaffiliated voters or people that haven\u2019t made up their mind, they look at this and say: \u2018You have to be kidding us. These are our choices?\u2019 And they indict us for not taking it seriously,\u201d the <em>Hill<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4671279-alarmed-democrats-flee-bidens-ailing-brand-in-battleground-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>quoted<\/a> an unnamed Democratic senator as saying. <\/p>\n<p>If such Democrats begin to abandon ship to avoid blame, things could begin to spin out of control. \u201cThe trajectory remains grim, and one effect of a losing campaign is that various factions start caring less about helping you win and more about exploiting your expected defeat for their own purposes,\u201d Chait warned.<\/p>\n<p>There are even signs that Biden\u2019s campaign recognizes his problems. It has stepped up its efforts with black and Hispanic voters as well as their race-based attacks on Republicans. Biden has agreed to debate Trump after flirting with conditioning such encounters on the Republican\u2019s behavior. Biden could also use the felony conviction to justify avoiding the debates. A barrage is planned against the more conventionally pro-business parts of Trump\u2019s record.<\/p>\n<p>After largely staying away from Trump\u2019s legal predicaments, the Biden campaign dispatched 80-year-old actor Robert De Niro to inveigh against the former president outside his Manhattan hush money trial (another move Axelrod panned) as it neared its conclusion. The move was described by Biden allies as a \u201cguerilla-style pivot.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That trial itself could solve Biden\u2019s problems. Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts. Democrats will now be able to append \u201cconvicted felon\u201d to his name in every ad, speech, and campaign appearance.<\/p>\n<p>  Trump\u2019s leads are small by historical standards and could easily be erased by the New York verdict. In the aforementioned 1988 contest, Dukakis built and blew a 17-point lead between the conventions and Election Day. Trump\u2019s national lead in the <em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>polling average is only 0.9 points weeks before the conventions, though if it held that would make him just the second Republican nominee to win the popular vote since the elder Bush beat Dukakis. <\/p>\n<p>There is no shortage of Republicans who harbored similar fears about Trump even before he was convicted in the hush money trial \u2014 that any other nominee would deliver them a landslide rather than a nail-biter. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/nikki-haley\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Nikki Haley<\/a> and Gov. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/ron-desantis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Ron DeSantis<\/a> (R-FL) both tried to make that case. <\/p>\n<p>This is the crux of the Democratic dilemma. Biden is nearly tied with Trump. The realistic alternatives aren\u2019t polling unambiguously better, a consequence of the weak bench post-Obama that left Democrats with an 81-year-old standard-bearer in the first place.<\/p>\n<p>These polls have all been taken while this improbable scenario is still a hypothetical: forcing out an incumbent president who swept all the primaries by landslide margins, even if only against token opposition, and also Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Kamala Harris<\/a>, the first black, Asian, and woman to hold the office. Given how the Democrats exceeded expectations in the midterm elections and have recently had better election results than poll numbers, perhaps Biden is in even better shape than he appears, or will be once disenchanted progressives come home to stop Trump. Democrats have reason to be confident in their fundraising, overall operation, and swing-state ground game.<\/p>\n<p>But if you believe what many Democrats say they do about Trump, the election being a jump ball isn\u2019t good enough. \u201cThis isn\u2019t, \u2018Oh my God, Mitt Romney might become president,\u2019\u201d a worried Democratic operative told <em>Politico<\/em>. \u201cIt\u2019s \u2018Oh my God, the democracy might end.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Leaving aside the fact that Biden told a largely black audience that Romney was going to \u201cput y\u2019all back in chains\u201d when the former Massachusetts governor and outgoing Utah senator was the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, Trump is a remarkably resilient political figure.<\/p>\n<p>Polls taken before Trump\u2019s conviction still show a competitive race in that scenario.<strong> <\/strong>A CNN <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/04\/25\/politics\/cnn-poll-trump-trial\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">poll<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2024\/04\/26\/trump-criminal-conviction-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">found <\/a>four out of five Trump voters who said they might desert him if convicted would not consider voting for Biden. An NBC News poll earlier this year yielded similar results. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cRepublican pollster Bill McInturff, the GOP half of the bipartisan group of pollsters who conduct the NBC News survey, cautions that the sliver of voters who shift on these two ballots \u2014 55 in total out of 1,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-arent-guaranteed-victory-if-trump-is-convicted\/\" title=\"Democrats don't have a sure win if Trump is convicted\">000 interviews \u2014 hold overwhelmingly negative opinions<\/a> about Biden, and they also prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 points,\u201d the network\u2019s Mark Murray <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/trump-conviction-changes-2024-race-latest-poll-rcna137087\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>An NPR\/Marist poll released the day Trump was found guilty found that 67% of people said a hush money conviction would have no impact on their vote, 17% said it would make it less likely they would vote for the former president, and 15% said it would make them <em>more <\/em>likely to vote for him.<\/p>\n<p>Obviously, it is hard to know the real impact until more post-conviction polling is done. But from <em>Access Hollywood <\/em>to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Trump has survived blows that would have ended anyone else\u2019s political career. The multiple indictments helped him in the Republican primaries.<\/p>\n<p>Many of the conditions that helped Trump win in 2016 are present this year: two broadly unpopular major party nominees, the Trump base more enthused for their choice than the Democrats\u2019 left flank, multiple third-party candidates possibly splitting the anti-Trump vote, respectable leads in the Sun Belt and smaller ones in the Rust Belt. <\/p>\n<p>It was Trump who outperformed his poll numbers in both 2016 and 2020. Trump likely would have been reelected four years ago if the pandemic hadn\u2019t happened, probably would have been reelected against a too-left Democratic nominee like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and might have even prevailed against Biden last time in a pandemic-addled economy with fewer COVID-19 voting protocols in place. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong>CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Trump is rightly associated with a number of Republican electoral setbacks, and his significant political liabilities have just gotten worse. But counting the GOP primaries, Trump has beaten multiple established candidates head-to-head. Biden in 2020 is the exception, not the rule. Candidates who expected outside forces to neutralize Trump have typically lost to him. And at least <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/hillary-clinton\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Hillary Clinton<\/a>\u2019s complacency could be justified by the polls.<\/p>\n<p>There is little Democrats can do about their panic except stay the course and hope Biden is on track. They will be worried unless and until they stop losing to this guy who has been convicted on all felony counts.<\/p>\n<p><em>W. James Antle III is executive editor of the <\/em>Washington Examiner <em>magazine.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a Saturday Night Live skit spoofing the 1988 presidential debates, Dana Carvey as George H.W. Bush struggled with campaign slogans like \u201cOn track\u2026 stay the course\u2026 a thousand points of light\u2026\u201d while Jon Lovitz as Michael Dukakis responded swiftly<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2659,"featured_media":2256407,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/CoverArt.jpg.optimal.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2256406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/CoverArt.jpg.optimal.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2256406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2659"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2256406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2256406\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2256407"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2256406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2256406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2256406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}