{"id":2252446,"date":"2024-05-24T19:07:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-24T23:07:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-trumps-big-polling-lead-might-slip-out-from-under-him-on-election-day\/"},"modified":"2024-05-24T19:10:10","modified_gmt":"2024-05-24T23:10:10","slug":"why-trumps-big-polling-lead-might-slip-out-from-under-him-on-election-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-trumps-big-polling-lead-might-slip-out-from-under-him-on-election-day\/","title":{"rendered":"The Possible Shift in Trump&#8217;s Polling Lead on Election Day"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwhy-trumps-big-polling-lead-might-slip-out-from-under-him-on-election-day%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2252446&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Nate Cohn, from The \u200cNew York \u2063Times and FiveThirtyEight, expressed\u2064 concerns\u2062 about Donald Trump&#8217;s increasing support before the November election. Cohn highlighted Trump&#8217;s appeal \u200bto less\u200d politically active\u2063 voters \u200dwho avoid\u2062 mainstream\u2064 news and have irregular voting patterns. This dynamic could impact President\u2063 Joe Biden&#8217;s campaign. Your rewritten summary\u200d looks concise and captures the\u2063 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/mike-gallagher-decision-to-leave-house-unchanged-despite-plea-from-leadership\/\" title=\"Mike Gallagher stands firm on decision to remain in the House despite leadership's plea for him to reconsider\">key points effectively<\/a>. It conveys Nate Cohn&#8217;s\u200c concerns about Donald\u2062 Trump&#8217;s support among less politically \u2064active voters and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/dominion-used-a-version-of-the-solorwinds-orion-platform-which-provides-backdoor-access-into-their-voting-machines\/\" title=\"Dominion Used a Version of the SolorWinds Orion Platform Which Provides Backdoor Access Into their Voting Machines\">potential impact<\/a> on President Joe Biden&#8217;s campaign. Great job!  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_78\">\n<p>The <em>New York Times\u2019s<\/em> Nate Cohn, founder of <em>FiveThirtyEight<\/em>, raised red flags on former President Donald Trump\u2019s building momentum toward November\u2019s general election Friday.<\/p>\n<p>He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/24\/upshot\/trump-biden-polls-voters.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>pointed out<\/a> how Trump\u2019s momentum is \u201cbuilt on gains among voters who aren\u2019t paying close attention to politics, who don\u2019t follow traditional news and who don\u2019t regularly vote.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>President Joe Biden previously led in that demographic by two points in the 2020 election, but politically unenthusiastic nonvoters have shifted to a 14-point lead for Trump in 2024. Biden has maintained a two-point lead over 2020 voters.<\/p>\n<p>A lead among nonvoters, a constituency who has obviously not proven they will turnout at the polls, could make \u201cit easy to imagine how [the race] could quickly become more volatile\u201d in November.<\/p>\n<p>Cohn notes that nonvoters\u2019 \u201cunusual significance\u201d could create \u201cmajor challenges for pollsters, who have long known that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/republicans-need-to-chase-ballots-from-every-low-turnout-voter-who-polls-for-trump\/\" title=\"Republicans should target ballots from all low-turnout Trump supporters\">low-turnout voters<\/a> are less likely to respond to political surveys,\u201d and a regular pollster could underestimate Trump\u2019s reach.<\/p>\n<p>Millions of voters often vote in one presidential election and stay home for the next, and vice versa. This could refute Cohn\u2019s own argument, as he later says, \u201cMr. Trump\u2019s big edge among nonvoters means the exact number of new voters could be hugely important or even decisive.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Cohn sums up the nonvoter situation well.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong>CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cOf course, it\u2019s unlikely that disengaged, irregular voters have already formed solid plans about November,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThere\u2019s plenty of time for them to make up or change their minds about whom they might vote for \u2014 and about whether they\u2019ll vote at all.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Trump has a 1.5% lead over Biden in <em>FiveThirtyEight\u2019s<\/em> presidential <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/2024\/national\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>polling<\/a> average, his largest since early April.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nate Cohn of The New York Times and founder of FiveThirtyEight warned about Donald Trump&#8217;s growing momentum for the upcoming election. Cohn highlighted Trump&#8217;s support from less politically engaged voters who avoid traditional news and infrequent voting. This factor could impact President Joe Biden&#8217;s standing in the race<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2252447,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/AP24145024379940-1024x683.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2252446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/AP24145024379940-1024x683.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2252446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2252446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2252446\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2252447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2252446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2252446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2252446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}