{"id":2250962,"date":"2024-05-23T05:47:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-23T09:47:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-polling-drag-creates-split-ticket-openings-in-swing-senate-races\/"},"modified":"2024-05-23T05:50:20","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T09:50:20","slug":"biden-polling-drag-creates-split-ticket-openings-in-swing-senate-races","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-polling-drag-creates-split-ticket-openings-in-swing-senate-races\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden&#8217;s Polling Decline Opens Opportunities for Split-Ticket Voting in Key Senate Races"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fbiden-polling-drag-creates-split-ticket-openings-in-swing-senate-races%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2250962&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The text discusses Democratic Senate candidates leading in \u2063<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/exclusive-oans-chanel-rion-talks-election-fight-with-rudy-giuliani\/\" title=\"EXCLUSIVE: OAN\u2019s Chanel Rion talks election fight with Rudy Giuliani\">swing states ahead<\/a> of President Biden, with GOP candidate Dave McCormick\u2062 aiming to win in Pennsylvania. McCormick&#8217;s strategy involves\u2063 linking the incumbent Senator Bob Casey to \u2063Biden to capitalize on Biden&#8217;s declining popularity \u200bin the state. The \u2063article \u200dalso highlights the potential for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/dr-oz-making-a-comeback-in-the-polls-vs-fetterman\/\" title=\"Dr. Oz Making a Comeback in the Polls vs. Fetterman\">split-ticket voting<\/a> and the challenges faced \u200bby Democrats in\u200c maintaining \u200dtheir Senate majority.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democratic-party\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Democratic\">Democratic<\/a> Senate candidates in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/mi-judge-orders-dem-sec-of-state-to-release-all-communications-with-dominion-facebook-apple-amazon-and-google\/\" title=\"MI Judge Orders Dem Sec of State To Release All Communications With Dominion, Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google\">critical swing states<\/a> are running well ahead of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"President Joe Biden\">President Joe Biden<\/a> and lead their Republican rivals, but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/pennsylvania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Pennsylvania<\/a> Senate<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/republican\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title> Republican<\/a> candidate<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/david-mccormick\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title> Dave McCormick<\/a> believes he\u2019s got a plan to ensure the commonwealth turns red for both himself and former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Donald Trump\">Donald Trump<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBob Casey has been the status quo; he\u2019s voted with Biden 98% of the time,\u201d McCormick said, speaking to the <em>Washington Examiner <\/em>in an interview. \u201cI\u2019ve made huge progress on people getting to know me and that is being reflected in the polls.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>McCormick\u2019s strategy: tie incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) to Biden as much as possible, capitalizing on the president\u2019s sinking job approval ratings in the Keystone State over inflation and the border crisis.<\/p>\n<p>The wealthy finance executive and veteran is working to erase Casey\u2019s advantage as a three-term senator whose father was a governor of Pennsylvania. Casey regularly outpolls Biden in the state, where Democrats have enjoyed victory since Trump\u2019s stunning upset over Hillary Clinton in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[Casey] has not had any major legislative accomplishments, and people are deeply worried about the future of the country,\u201d McCormick explained. \u201cI think that lays the groundwork for an outsider who has had my background of experience in the military, in business, and so forth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>McCormick trails his Democratic incumbent challenger in<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/senate\/general\/2024\/pennsylvania\/mccormick-vs-casey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title> averages<\/a> of recent polling. In fact, a recent battleground state Siena College<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/13\/us\/politics\/democrats-senate-battleground-poll.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title> poll<\/a> released last week found Democratic Senate candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin are leading their Republican opponents and are running ahead of Biden in critical states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election. <\/p>\n<p>The results found Casey has the support of 46% of voters, compared to McCormick\u2019s 41%. However, former Trump holds a slim advantage in a head-to-head race with Biden, 47% to 44%.<\/p>\n<p>The mismatched polling suggests there\u2019s a potential for split-ticket voting that could be beneficial to Democrats in places like Pennsylvania where races are won and lost by mere thousands of votes and could have the impact of tipping the races for Senate and the presidency. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cDemocrats would much, much, much prefer a popular president of the same party running for president. The coattails are very beneficial because we filter everything so much through a presidential lens,\u201d Casey Burgat, the director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University\u2019s Graduate School of Political Management, said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey are seeing an unpopular president as more of an obstacle, and we will see this reflected in their campaigns a little bit where they will try to distance themselves from the president where appropriate and they won\u2019t tie themselves directly to the Biden agenda,\u201d Burgat explained.<\/p>\n<p>McCormick is framing the polling and recent trends as promising because it showed he was within striking distance of Casey, especially when considering the margins of error. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think where I am in the polls is terrific. In the following sense, only about 50% of Pennsylvanians know who I am,\u201d McCormick said. \u201cFor me to be where I am in the polls and for this race to be margin of error at this point, I think it\u2019s a reflection of just how weak President Biden and Bob Casey are.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Democrats face an uphill battle to keep their slim majority in the Senate this year. They are defending seats in nearly a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/maine-moves-to-join-democratic-led-pact-to-elect-president-by-popular-vote-instead-of-electoral-college\/\" title=\"Maine considers joining Democratic-led initiative to elect president based on popular vote, bypassing Electoral College\">half-dozen swing states<\/a>, with a 51-49 current majority in the chamber. Republicans, meanwhile, are defending two at most, in Texas and Florida, though both lean more toward Republicans. The path is even further complicated by the likelihood that the GOP will secure at least one more seat in West Virginia since incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) opted not to run for another term in the red state.<\/p>\n<p>A recent poll out of Arizona conducted by<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-biden-florida-arizona-poll-abortion-inflation-immigration-05-19-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title> YouGov<\/a>, shows likely Democratic nominee Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads likely Republican nominee Kari Lake by double digits. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they plan to back Gallego in November, while 36% said they expect they will be voting for Lake, according to the survey. However, the poll found Republicans are still leading in the presidential race with 52% of respondents answering they are voting for Trump, while 47% said they plan to vote for Biden.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI do think Gallego is likely to do better than Biden, but it\u2019s probably not going to be 18 points, so I would like a vote share instead of margin,\u201d Kyle Kondik, a<a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/kyle-d-kondik\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title> managing editor<\/a> of <em>Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/em>, said. <\/p>\n<p>Experts point out that ticket-splitting has declined substantially in recent years, with the country remaining deeply divided as many people gravitate toward their partisan corners. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe general trend has been the past two presidential elections, only one Senate race in either year produced a split outcome, Susan Collins won in Maine, while Biden won Maine in 2020,\u201d Kondik explained. \u201cPrior to that it was pretty common for there to be split results in Senate races, Democrats won several Romney state Senate races in 2012 with incumbents, they even held an open seat with Heidi Heitkamp in 2012.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>There were some signs of ticket-splitters in the 2022 midterm elections, but the examples are limited. In New Hampshire, Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) won with 57% of the vote, while incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) beat out a Republican opponent by nearly double digits. In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) won his race against Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams by about 8 points, while Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker was defeated by Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) narrowly.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cJust because the trend has been toward less ticket splitting doesn\u2019t mean there will be no ticket splitting this election,\u201d Kondik explained. \u201cWe should be open-minded about the possibility of there being more in 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Instead of split-ticket voting, Burgat believes there is more likely to be gaps between the Biden performance and the Senate candidate performance because voters opt to not to participate in the presidential race or vote for a third-party candidate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not split-ticket voting,\u201d Burgat said. \u201cThere are going to be states where Democratic senator wins by a much larger percentage than Biden carries that state. Conversely, you\u2019re going to see Democratic Senate candidates lose by less than what Biden lost that state.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Dave McCormick travels across the state on his campaign bus. (Photo provided by the McCormick campaign)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As for McCormick, he\u2019s been hitting the campaign trail for the last six months, preparing to complete his 67-county tour of the state this Friday with a stop in Pike County. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m running a retail campaign, and I\u2019m spending a lot of time across our commonwealth. I\u2019ve got this campaign bus,\u201d McCormick said.<\/p>\n<p>The Republican hopeful admits the state is set to be one of the most expensive and premiere battles this cycle. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe get more and more attention every day. I say to people on the campaign trail with a laugh, \u2018By the time this thing is over, you\u2019re going to be so sick of seeing my face,\u2019\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am delighted with where I am in the polls,\u201d he added. \u201cI think we are running a great campaign, and evidence shows as Pennsylvanians get to know me, they will come to me.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The <em>Washington Examiner <\/em>reached out to Casey\u2019s campaign for comment.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In key swing states, Democratic Senate nominees are outperforming President Biden and leading against Republican opponents. Pennsylvania&#8217;s GOP candidate, Dave McCormick, aims to flip the state red, aligning with Donald Trump. McCormick criticizes incumbent Bob Casey for maintaining the status quo and vows for change<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2657,"featured_media":2250963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/AP24115689612853-1024x683.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2250962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/AP24115689612853-1024x683.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2250962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2657"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2250962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2250962\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2250963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2250962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2250962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2250962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}