{"id":2248473,"date":"2024-05-20T09:24:03","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T13:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/judgment-day-no-room-for-error-electoral-map-hampers-bidens-rematch-with-trump\/"},"modified":"2024-05-20T09:28:54","modified_gmt":"2024-05-20T13:28:54","slug":"judgment-day-no-room-for-error-electoral-map-hampers-bidens-rematch-with-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/judgment-day-no-room-for-error-electoral-map-hampers-bidens-rematch-with-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Challenges Ahead: Electoral Map Strains Biden&#8217;s Rematch with Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fjudgment-day-no-room-for-error-electoral-map-hampers-bidens-rematch-with-trump%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2248473&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The upcoming election poses a familiar choice\u2063 between President\u2063 Biden and Donald Trump. Differences in the Electoral College map and campaign strategies suggest\u2064 a\u200c distinct\u200b showdown. Changes in key states \u2062may\u200b sway the election\u2063 outcome,\u200c with potential ties leading to intriguing scenarios for both candidates. Voter mobilization and \u200bstrategic state approaches will shape the\u200c path to victory in this highly anticipated rematch.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><em>Election Day is less than six months away and voters have a familiar choice of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Unless it\u2019s The Godfather Part II, sequels generally never really live up to the original. While the main attraction looks like a 2020 repeat on the surface, the star players are competing in a different game, under different rules, and with greater stakes. This <\/em>Washington Examiner<em> series, <strong>Judgment Day: Why 2024 rematch won\u2019t be any old sequel,<\/strong> investigates the key differences from 2020. Part One is on the changes across the Electoral College map.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2024-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>2024 election<\/a> may be a rematch, but President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a> and former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a>\u2018s paths to 270 electoral votes and the presidency may not be the same this time around.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s because the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/census\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>2020 Census<\/a> has tinkered with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/electoral-college\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Electoral College<\/a> map and the campaigns\u2019 electoral math, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/nebraska\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Nebraska<\/a>, typically a flyover state, tipped to be more important to Biden and Trump this November.<\/p>\n<p>If the 2020 election were rerun today, Biden would win 303 electoral votes to Trump\u2019s 235, or three fewer votes compared to four years ago, according to Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle\u00a0Kondik. Similarly, if the 2024 results are the same as 2016, Trump would receive 306 votes to then-Democratic presidential nominee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/hillary-clinton\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Hillary Clinton<\/a>\u2018s 232, or two more than the upset victory that vaulted Trump to the White House.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s because <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/california\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>California<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/illinois\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Illinois<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/michigan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Michigan<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/new-york\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>New York<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/pennsylvania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Pennsylvania<\/a> \u2014 states Biden won in 2020 \u2014lost one vote each after the Census, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/colorado\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Colorado<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/oregon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Oregon<\/a> gaining votes, for a net loss of three votes. Simultaneously, Trump\u2019s states of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/florida\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Florida<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/montana\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Montana<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/north-carolina\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>North Carolina<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/texas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Texas<\/a> gained five votes, though <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/ohio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Ohio<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/west-virginia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>West Virginia<\/a> lost two, for a net gain of three.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo the overall map is slightly worse for [Biden], and slightly better for Trump,\u201d Kondik told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>.<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Joe Biden is favored to win 226 electoral college votes, while Donald Trump is set to lock in 235. Swing states will decide who gets the presidency with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-shrinking-2024-election\/\" title=\"The Shrinking 2024 Election\">270 electoral college votes<\/a>. (Washington Examiner map)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Trump currently has the polling edge in critical battleground states of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/arizona\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Arizona<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/georgia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Georgia<\/a>, Michigan, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/nevada\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Nevada<\/a>, Pennsylvania, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/wisconsin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Wisconsin<\/a> which more than secure his political comeback. Not satisfied, friendly Nebraska Republicans have speculated that they could change the state\u2019s election laws to no longer divide three of its electoral votes by its congressional districts. Historically, Republican presidential candidates have won Nebraska\u2019s two statewide and two rural congressional district votes, with Democrats receiving Omaha\u2019s counterpart.<\/p>\n<p>With Trump poised to lock in 235 votes of the 270 needed under the new electoral map with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-trouble-with-tulsi-why-the-former-hawaii-congresswoman-is-trumps-worst-choice-for-vice-president\/\" title=\"The Problem with Tulsi: Why She's Trump's Least Suitable VP Pick\">reliably red states<\/a>, that Omaha vote becomes more important if he wins Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That\u2019s because the former president would have 268 votes, according to University of Texas, Austin government professor Daron Shaw.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat means even winning the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska would get him a tie,\u201d Shaw, a Pew Elections Performance Index adviser, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>. \u201cFlipping anything else \u2014 Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/minnesota\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Minnesota<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/virginia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Virginia<\/a> \u2014 would be for the win.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMichigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania may be enough for Biden, but he literally has no room for error,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Donald Trump is poised to lock in 235 Electoral College votes under the new map. Here are the pathways to victory through swing states combinations to get 270 electoral college votes to win. (Washington Examiner graphic)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>That\u2019s why there\u2019s been so much conjecture regarding Nebraska\u2019s election laws, regardless of the likelihood lawmakers can and will change them, Kondik agreed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBiden could afford to lose Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, but still win if he held everything else from 2020, including [Nebraska\u2019s 2nd Congressional District],\u201d Kondik said. \u201cLosing it would drop the race to a 269-269 tie, which Republicans would likely win if the election went to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/house-of-representatives\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>House<\/a> tiebreaker.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If there is a tie, the House would decide the presidency next January through what\u2019s called a contingent election. Pursuant to that process, the House\u2019s 50 state congressional delegations would have one vote each, with Republicans expected to win a majority of the delegations in November, even if they don\u2019t win the majority of seats overall for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/speaker-of-the-house\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>speakership<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Nine winning combinations for President Joe Biden to get to 270 votes. (Washington Examiner graphic)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>If Nebraska does not change its law, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Election Data and Science Lab director Charles Stewart predicted Arizona would become a \u201cpivotal\u201d state.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Trump vote in <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/maine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Maine<\/a> is probably more secure than the Biden vote in Nebraska, but that doesn\u2019t change the national calculus,\u201d Stewart told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>For Stewart, the election will be determined by the \u201cfundamentals of campaigning\u201d as the \u201cnational swing gets distributed to the states,\u201d with Trump having a national polling average advantage over Biden of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>three percentage points<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLots of the national swing that gets written about from the national polling reflects \u2018wasted\u2019 votes going from Biden to Trump,\u201d Stewart, the California Institute of Technology-MIT Voting Technology Project co-director, said. \u201cThat is, if Biden is losing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/hispanics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Hispanic<\/a> votes in New York, California, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/texas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Texas<\/a>, it doesn\u2019t matter for the result. Now, if he loses them in Arizona, that\u2019s a big deal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf current trends continue and Biden remains weak in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, he loses, regardless of the shift in electoral votes,\u201d he added.\u00a0\u201cThe only thing that would save Biden in that scenario would be something like the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/abortion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>abortion<\/a> initiative in Florida bringing out enough extra Biden votes to swing that state, but that\u2019s a huge stretch to imagine that would occur.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><\/figure>\n<p>The Biden campaign declined to respond to questions pertaining to hypotheticals, but has projected confidence in public memos that the president has \u201cmultiple clear paths to victory through a number of critical swing states.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe also aren\u2019t taking any state or any vote for granted and are building strong teams to shore up important building block states to 270 such as Colorado, Minnesota, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/new-hampshire\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>New Hampshire<\/a>, New Mexico, and Virginia, while expanding the map in places like Florida and Texas,\u201d Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez wrote in March.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt this stage in the race, we\u2019re being strategic about keeping multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes,\u201d Biden spokeswoman Lauren Hitt additionally told the <em>Washington Post<\/em> in February. \u201cSince the president was elected in 2020, we\u2019ve made significant and ongoing investments in state parties and on-the-ground infrastructure. We saw the results of those investments when Democrats greatly surpassed pundit predictions and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/republican-debate-trump-hits-sununu-after-new-hampshire-governor-criticizes-him-for-not-debating\/\" title=\"Trump retaliates against Sununu's criticism by attacking him during Republican debate.\">won statewide elections<\/a> in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada in 2022. We\u2019re continuing to build on those results for 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s talk, but in terms of action, since the start of the year, Biden has been to Pennsylvania six times; New York and Wisconsin four times; and North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia three times. California, Florida, Nevada, South Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan have seen Biden twice in 2024;<strong> <\/strong>while Arizona, Illinois, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/maryland\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Maryland<\/a>,<strong> <\/strong>New Hampshire, Ohio, and Washington have had one visit, excluding the president\u2019s trips to Delaware.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond his travel for the Republican primary early states, Trump has been to Michigan three times; North Carolina and Wisconsin twice; and Georgia, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia once, not including his trips to Washington, D.C. and in Florida.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With Trump stuck in a New York courtroom because of his hush money trial, Trump campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have countered with how Biden has had to spend \u201cmillions on paid TV to shore up traditional Democrat constituencies in the battleground states.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t hate it in the Trump campaign,\u201d the pair wrote last month. \u201cBiden\u2019s approval rating has fallen to 35% in the new <a href=\"https:\/\/poll.qu.edu\/poll-release?releaseid=3896&#038;utm_medium=email&#038;utm_source=ncl_amplify&#038;utm_campaign=240425-memo_joe_biden_has_many_problems_he_is_weak_failed_and_dishonest&#038;utm_content=ncl-mrruxFUFVH&#038;_nlid=mrruxFUFVH&#038;_nhids=2l7lhRRmjl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Quinnipiac\u00a0survey\">Quinnipiac\u00a0survey<\/a>. Watching Joe Biden spend millions to stay just above the water line is proof of their situation. And it\u2019s crazy at this stage of the race.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In less than six months, voters face a familiar decision between President Biden and Donald Trump. Sequels often fall short of the original. While the upcoming election may seem like a repeat of 2020, the key contenders are in a new showdown that promises unpredictability and suspense<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2652,"featured_media":2248474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/AP24083008792535.jpg.optimal.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2248473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/AP24083008792535.jpg.optimal.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2248473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2652"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2248473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2248473\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2248474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2248473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2248473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2248473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}