{"id":2246645,"date":"2024-05-17T06:35:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T10:35:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/fierce-fights-for-control-of-state-legislatures-loom\/"},"modified":"2024-05-17T06:40:46","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T10:40:46","slug":"fierce-fights-for-control-of-state-legislatures-loom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/fierce-fights-for-control-of-state-legislatures-loom\/","title":{"rendered":"Upcoming battles for state legislature control intensify"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">14<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ffierce-fights-for-control-of-state-legislatures-loom%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2246645&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The Supreme Court&#8217;s Dobbs \u200dv. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization ruling\u2062 heightened state legislature\u200c battles, \u200cinfluenced by the White House dynamics. Democrats \u200baim to build on their 2022 success, while \u200bRepublicans \u200cseek to reverse it. Abortion laws \u2063and various policies drive \u2064voters&#8217;\u200c focus on state elections, impacting national debates and potentially the\u200b White House outcome. The Dobbs v. Jackson\u2062 Women\u2019s Health Organization ruling has intensified state legislature conflicts, \u2064influenced by White House dynamics.\u2062 Democrats seek to expand on\u200d their 2022 \u200cgains, contrasting with Republicans aiming to overturn them. Abortion laws and diverse \u200dpolicies drive voter attention to state elections, shaping national discussions and \u200bpotentially the White House result.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The Supreme Court\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><em>Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization<\/em> decision<\/a>, effectively ending a federal guarantee of abortion access, raised the stakes for both parties to win power in state capitals. Two years on, fierce battles for control of state legislatures are playing out nationally, to be decided on the same ballots, and likely influenced by, the White House rematch between President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a> and former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Political strategists identify six states where legislative control could flip. For Democrats, state-level gains would be a continuation of their strong election year in 2022, while Republicans want to reverse those blue gains.<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/5-aircraft-carriers-poised-to-operate-together-in-europe-for-nato-exercise\/\" title=\"5 Aircraft Carriers Poised to Operate Together in Europe for NATO Exercise\">top left clockwise<\/a>: Wisconsin state capitol in Madison, WI; Pennsylvania state capitol in Harrisburg, PA; New Hampshire state capitol in Concord, NH; Minnesota state capitol in St. Paul, MN; Michigan state capitol in Lansing, MI; Arizona state capitol in Phoenix, AZ. (Associated Press photos)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/abortion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Abortion<\/a> laws continue to be a main motivator for voters in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/storm-the-capitol-msnbcs-chris-hayes-mocks-gop-2022-congressional-candidates\/\" title=\"\u2018Storm The Capitol\u2019: MSNBC\u2019s Chris Hayes Mocks GOP 2022 Congressional Candidates\">state legislative elections<\/a>. It\u2019s been that way since the Supreme Court\u2019s June 2022 ruling in <em>Dobbs<\/em>. A high court majority held that\u00a0abortion was not a protected right under the Constitution, overturning both <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/roe-v-wade\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Roe v. Wade<\/a><\/em>  (1973) and <em>Planned Parenthood v. Casey<\/em> (1992), and returned decisions about abortion access back to the states.<\/p>\n<p>A range of other policies also are driving voters to pay more attention to elections for state legislatures, which are in many ways a closer government body to the people. Issues that dominate national headlines such as election rules, school voucher programs, and transgender protections are largely debated and decided in those chambers, far from the gridlock of Washington, D.C., where President Joe Biden and the Democratic-majority Senate are usually at odds with the Republican-controlled House.<\/p>\n<p>In Arizona, the recent Civil War era abortion ban that was revived in the state Supreme Court was then repealed by the Republican-controlled state legislature, though Democrats pledged to undo further restrictions on the procedure. In Michigan, the Democratic majority in both of the state\u2019s chambers ensured the success of a bill that mandated a 100% transition to clean energy by 2040. Both also are key swing states in the presidential race, and legislators\u2019 actions could have a bottom-up political effect on the White House contest.<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Supporters of Minnesota\u2019s Equal Rights Amendment proposal hold signs and cheer in the state\u2019s capitol building in St. Paul, Minnesota, on Feb. 12. (Trisha Ahmed\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Targeting goals aren\u2019t just about this election, however, said Abhi Rahman, communications director for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, in an interview. Democrats want to control the majority of state chambers by 2030 so that when the next census happens, they\u2019ll oversee the redistricting process and be in control of drawing the maps. Republicans succeeded wildly at that after the 2010 census, which coincided with a GOP wave year. The\u00a0Republican State Leadership Committee helped craft legislative maps that still give the party control today. <\/p>\n<p>Republicans control 56 chambers nationwide to Democrats\u2019 40. The chambers expected to see the most action this election are in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. <\/p>\n<h2>Arizona <\/h2>\n<p>Arizona\u2019s House and Senate are both top priorities for Democrats looking to strip the one-seat majority from Republicans, who have maintained a tight hold on the chamber since 1966, with a brief tie in the state Senate in 2000. Their majority has been narrowing in both chambers consistently since 2010.\u00a0Nabbing legislative majorities would give Democrats a state government trifecta of control, with Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) winning an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/house-reconvenes-with-no-end-in-sight-to-speaker-stalemate\/\" title=\"House Reconvenes With No End in Sight to Speaker Stalemate\">open-seat race<\/a> in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The revival of an 1864 ban on abortion by the state\u2019s Supreme Court thrust the state\u2019s politics back into the spotlight and surely boosted donations and voter motivation, especially after a repeal effort struggled to get off the ground when the Democrats struggled for weeks to get three Republicans on board. <\/p>\n<p>Democrats had hopes in Arizona long before the court\u2019s ruling, though. A strategist with the Arizona Democrats told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> there\u2019s been a demographic and political shift, with young, educated, techy people flocking to the state and voters turning their backs on extreme politicians. The strategist said Democrats have been intentionally recruiting and running centrist candidates, knowing that progressive politics won\u2019t get them far. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not like people are changing their voter registration in droves,\u201d the strategist said. \u201cIt\u2019s 30% Democrats, 30% independents, 30% Republican, but that independent base is really just in broad strokes rejecting the Republican Party because of how sincerely extreme they have been.\u201d <\/p>\n<h2>Michigan <\/h2>\n<p>With Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) into her second term, Republicans in Michigan are trying to convince Wolverine State voters that a Democratic trifecta is too powerful and should be voted out. As a result, the Michigan House might be the most anticipated flip this cycle. Both state chambers flipped in 2022, giving Democrats a one-seat majority in both the House and the Senate. Since securing a trifecta in the state, the Democrats have been ticking off legislation from what House Republican Leader Matt Hall calls their \u201c40-year pent-up wish list,\u201d which included passing a massive clean energy package, LGBT protections, and repealing \u201cRight to Work\u201d laws. <\/p>\n<p>The GOP\u2019s fundraising arm for state races, the Republican State Leadership Committee, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rslc.gop\/press-releases\/rslc-announces-state-legislative-targets-for-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>included<\/a> Michigan in a list of its highest-priority targets \u2014 front and center. Hall argued if it\u2019s not the most important chamber this cycle, it\u2019s at least \u201cin the top three.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are very few states where only the House is up, and we\u2019ve only got one way to put that check and balance on our radical governor, Gov. Whitmer \u2014 through winning the House,\u201d Hall told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>. \u201cThis is going to be tens of millions of dollars spent in Michigan.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Republican leader is hopeful the party will secure at least 60 seats in the 110-member chamber, though he said he wouldn\u2019t be surprised if it were more. The breakdown of the seats is 56 Democrats to 54 Republicans, and both parties have recruited candidates to run in every district. Political realignment, he said, is paving the way for his party\u2019s victory. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cPresident Trump has kind of built a new Republican coalition,\u201d Hall said. \u201cWhat you\u2019ve seen is a kind of realignment in different communities across the state where some of the areas that were reliably Republican are Democrat now and then areas that were reliably Democrat are Republican now.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>The coalition is built up of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nbc-poll-shows-gop-becoming-party-of-blue-collar-workers\/\" title=\"NBC Poll Shows GOP Becoming Party Of Blue-Collar Workers\">blue-collar workers<\/a>, union members who might\u2019ve once been Democrats, black people who Hall said relate to the \u201crigged justice system\u201d that Trump says he\u2019s being targeted by, and Muslims who disagree with Biden\u2019s stance on transgender protections. <\/p>\n<p>The rather optimistic outlook comes as the Republican Party in the state has fallen into disarray this year. The party\u2019s state committee ousted its chairwoman following months of disorganization, missed fundraising goals, and intraparty disputes and then had dueling conventions for allocating delegates planned until Michigan courts affirmed the chairwoman had been ousted. <\/p>\n<h2>Minnesota <\/h2>\n<p>Republicans are looking for hope in Minnesota, attempting to flip a single seat to overcome the 34-33 majority the Democrats hold in the state Senate. This could get easier after the November election, oddly, since Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison is running for the western Minneapolis suburbs 3rd Congressional District, held by Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) since early 2019, and from which he\u2019s retiring after an unsuccessful Democratic presidential bid against Biden. If she wins the House seat in November and the state Senate balance otherwise stays the same, there will be a special election for the opening shortly after that, which could decide who will hold the next one-seat majority. In that case, residents can expect to be overloaded by ads as both parties attempt to recover control.<\/p>\n<p>The state is on the RSLC\u2019s list of possible flips, which suggests a rather hefty amount will be invested before the possible special election. Republicans will have to overcome down-ballot support provided by Biden, who won the state with over 52% of the vote in 2020. Biden is <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/minnesota\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>polling<\/a> ahead of Trump in statewide polls, but the margins aren\u2019t as large as last election. Democrats haven\u2019t lost the state in a presidential election since 1972, though the state chambers have switched hands often in that same time. <\/p>\n<h2>New Hampshire <\/h2>\n<p>Despite New Hampshire\u2019s rather reliable tendency to vote for Democratic candidates for president, the state is under a Republican trifecta and has been since 2020. It\u2019s in Democrats\u2019 sights though, given the close majorities in both chambers. Republicans control the House 201-194 and the Senate 14-10. The parties want as wide of a majority as possible in such a large lower chamber, the biggest in the country, to compensate for the higher chance there will be vacancies throughout the session. Since 2022, four seats have become vacant. These vacancies can introduce midcycle challenges and give unexpected momentum to a party that manages to turn out passionate voters during the offseason, which this year seems to be Democrats.  <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re only a handful seats away in the state House,\u201d said Rahman, of the DLCC. \u201cThere have been many special elections in the House, and Democrats just keep on winning those. And then in the Senate, the chamber is definitely within striking distance, but the state House is definitely our top priority.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Pennsylvania <\/h2>\n<p>Pennsylvania has rare split chambers, with Democrats controlling the House 102-100 and Republicans in charge of the Senate by a 28-22 margin. Democrats reaffirmed their majority by winning three special elections during this session and now have their sights set on making gains toward an eventual majority in the state Senate by 2026, <a href=\"https:\/\/statesproject.org\/state\/pennsylvania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>according<\/a> to the States Project. <\/p>\n<p>While the House has changed hands slightly more often than the Senate, four times since 1992 compared to zero times, a Democratic majority has only lasted longer than one session once, and that was likely assisted by the blue wave of 2008 that also saw the election of President Barack Obama. <\/p>\n<p>With this in mind, the RSLC has targeted where Democrats show strength, including in mail-in ballots. Of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lehighvalleynews.com\/elections\/main-in-ballots-democrats-maintain-massive-advantage-in-pa-and-the-lehigh-valley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>almost<\/a> 900,000 Pennsylvanians who requested a mail-in ballot for the April primary, 72% were Democrats. This advantage has plagued Republicans since the state\u2019s election laws were reformed in 2019. Though the GOP supported the measure then, Trump\u2019s accusations of fraud through mail-in ballots after the 2020 election interrupted Republicans\u2019 ability to cut into Democrats\u2019 advantage. This year, however, the RSLC announced an eight-figure investment in the program. <\/p>\n<h2>Wisconsin <\/h2>\n<p>Newly redistricted maps were signed into law in February by Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) that make it probable Democrats will see a huge boost in seats, with a chance of overturning Republicans\u2019 64-35 gerrymandered majority. The fight isn\u2019t making its way to the state Senate because only half of the seats there are up for reelection, and in order to win control of the chamber, Republicans would have to lose all but four of the 16 up for grabs on Election Day. <\/p>\n<p>The fight over the state\u2019s maps heated up with the election of liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz to the state Supreme Court in 2023. With her on the bench, the 4-3 liberal majority court threw out maps that had been used since 2011 and were considered some of the most heavily gerrymandered in the country. Republicans who were fearful of any new maps the court would implement decided to preemptively approve one put forward by Evers in February. <\/p>\n<p>If voters behaved as expected, the old maps would\u2019ve handed Republicans a majority with 60 seats. With the new maps, Democrats could see a 52-47 majority. Democrats\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/wisconsinexaminer.com\/2024\/04\/04\/democrats-plan-for-recruiting-candidates-and-making-gains-in-wisconsin-legislature\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>most likely<\/a> targets will be districts in the Milwaukee suburbs and the Green Bay area. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe think we\u2019re gonna make gains. It remains to be seen whether or not we\u2019re going to get an outright majority. But we\u2019re pushing to get as many gains as possible,\u201d Rahman said. <\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wisconsin regularly votes for Democratic presidential candidates, having only gone to a Republican once since 1988, in 2016. The state, Rahman said, is \u201cpretty 50\/50,\u201d which is why the Republican supermajority in the legislature \u201cwasn\u2019t right.\u201d The strategy this year will be to convince voters to elect a Democratic trifecta, when one party controls both chambers and the governorship, like neighbors Michigan and Minnesota. <\/p>\n<p>In total, the DLCC has raised over $28 million so far in the cycle, more than ever before, and is expecting to reach $60 million by November, according to Rahman. The RSLC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rslc.gop\/press-releases\/rslc-smashes-first-quarter-odd-year-fundraising-record\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>reported<\/a> a haul of $4.2 million in the first three months of 2024, ramping up for a pricey cycle.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization ruling by the Supreme Court eliminated federal abortion access guarantees, heightening the importance of state legislature control for both parties. Across the nation, intense struggles for power in state capitals unfold, set to be determined in upcoming elections, possibly shaped by<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2970,"featured_media":2246646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WB.Campaign-2-1024x591.jpg.optimal.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2246645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WB.Campaign-2-1024x591.jpg.optimal.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2246645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2970"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2246645"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2246645\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2246646"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2246645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2246645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2246645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}