{"id":2241540,"date":"2024-05-10T05:56:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-10T09:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-is-downplaying-polls-that-show-him-trailing-trump-how-much-will-they-matter\/"},"modified":"2024-05-10T05:59:31","modified_gmt":"2024-05-10T09:59:31","slug":"biden-is-downplaying-polls-that-show-him-trailing-trump-how-much-will-they-matter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-is-downplaying-polls-that-show-him-trailing-trump-how-much-will-they-matter\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden dismisses polls showing him behind Trump &#8211; do they hold weight?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fbiden-is-downplaying-polls-that-show-him-trailing-trump-how-much-will-they-matter%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2241540&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>President Joe Biden is challenging polls that indicate he&#8217;s trailing Donald Trump,\u2064 raising campaign concerns. He\u200c toured southeast Wisconsin and Chicago to \u200drally support and funds. Despite leading in one\u200d poll, Biden \u2062downplayed overall polling significance. \u200bAnalysts note that early polls don&#8217;t always predict election outcomes accurately, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/missouri-child-transition-ban-is-warning-shot-to-medical-establishment-andrew-bailey\/\" title=\"Missouri child transition ban sends message to medical establishment: Andrew Bailey\">citing historical examples<\/a> like\u2063 Truman&#8217;s surprise victory in 1948.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Joe Biden\">Joe Biden<\/a> is beginning to publicly rebuke <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"polls\">polls<\/a> that show him behind in the race against former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"polls\">Donald Trump<\/a> in what could be a worrying sign for his campaign.<\/p>\n<p>Biden spent a whirlwind Wednesday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/2995573\/biden-warns-wisconsin-voters-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"touring southeast Wisconsin\">touring southeast Wisconsin<\/a> and Chicago. Biden\u2019s trip to Wisconsin comes as he works to raise money and support in what\u2019s expected to be one of his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/new-data-indicates-gop-midterm-success-depends-on-keeping-newer-voters\/\" title=\"New Data Indicates GOP Midterm Success Depends on Keeping Newer Voters\">closest battleground states<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking at the Chicago event,\u00a0where he was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nc-dem-senate-challenger-votes-against-bipartisan-school-reopening-bill\/\" title=\"NC Dem Senate Challenger Votes Against Bipartisan School Reopening Bill\">raising money<\/a> likely to be spent in nearby <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/update-corrupted-software-that-stole-6000-votes-from-trump-in-michigan-county-shut-down-for-two-hours-in-red-counties-in-georgia-on-election-day\/\" title=\"Update: Corrupted Software that Stole 6,000 Votes From Trump in Michigan County -- Shut Down for TWO HOURS in Red Counties in Georgia on Election Day\">swing states<\/a>,\u00a0Biden cited a Quinnipiac <a href=\"https:\/\/poll.qu.edu\/images\/polling\/wi\/wi05082024_wizz76.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"poll\">poll<\/a> showing him leading Trump by 6 points. But he followed that up by downplaying the importance of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trumps-small-but-enduring-lead-revives-polling-skepticism\/\" title=\"Trump's slight yet lasting advantage reignites doubts about polling accuracy\">polling generally<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe truth is, I don\u2019t think any of the polls matter very much this early,\u201d Biden told donors at the ritzy Palmer House Hotel. \u201cIt\u2019s hard to get a good poll these days. To be able to call someone on a cellphone and get them to answer \u2014 most people don\u2019t have hard lines anymore. It takes sometimes 30 or 40 calls to get one person to answer.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The president has good reason to downplay recent polls. The Quinnipiac survey is an outlier, with all others either showing a tie or a Trump lead. Trump is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/wisconsin\/trump-vs-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"ahead\">ahead<\/a> by half a point in the <em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>average for Wisconsin.<\/p>\n<p>Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"ahead\">leads<\/a> by 1.2 points nationally, whereas Biden led by 4.4 points at this point in the 2020 cycle. Despite what he says, Biden is paying very close attention to every poll, argues presidential historian and Ronald Reagan biographer Craig Shirley.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe first thing Biden looks at every morning is the polls,\u201d Shirley said. \u201cThat\u2019s the very first thing he looks at, ahead of anything else. He\u2019s a lifetime politician. He obsesses about the politics of politics. The polls, the personnel, the fundraising. Everything except the issues.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Downplaying the polls is what losing politicians always do, Shirley added, citing examples ranging from President Jimmy Carter in 1980 to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/1287541\/desantis-says-hes-playing-the-long-game-amid-lackluster-early-polls\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"last year\">last year<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAll losing candidates are in denial,\u201d Shirley said. \u201cThe next thing he\u2019s going to say is, \u2018The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.\u2019 That\u2019s what rank losers always say.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But plenty of politicos have overcome early polling deficits to emerge victorious. <\/p>\n<p>The most famous example remains Harry Truman defeating Thomas Dewey in 1948 despite expectations so widespread that newspapers were printed saying Dewey had won. More recent examples include Carter holding an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1979\/01\/21\/archives\/carter-leads-ford-reagan-in-poll.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"early lead\">early lead<\/a> over Reagan in 1980, Michael Dukakis <a href=\"https:\/\/www.minnpost.com\/eric-black-ink\/2020\/08\/a-look-at-1988-shows-just-how-much-presidential-polls-can-shift\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"leading\">leading<\/a> George H.W. Bush for much of 1988, and Mitt Romney holding the polling <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/158048\/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"edge\">edge<\/a> over Barack Obama in October 2012. <\/p>\n<p>The most recent example came when Hillary Clinton was up by 6.5 points in May 2016 and by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2016\/10\/23\/politics\/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"12 points\">12 points<\/a> in a CNN poll taken just two weeks before the election.<\/p>\n<p>With all of those examples in mind, Rutgers University history, media studies, and journalism professor David Greenberg thinks the president has a point. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cBiden is right that polling suffers from all kinds of reliability problems, including the ridiculously low response rate,\u201d Greenberg said. \u201cHe\u2019s also right that it\u2019s too early for the polls to be meaningful.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Biden went on to win the popular vote comfortably in 2020, mirroring his polling advantage even though the votes in a handful of key swing states were close.<\/p>\n<p>With Biden now trailing the same rival, he\u2019s doubling down on attacking Trump over his abortion stance and whether he\u2019ll accept the election results, among other topics. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAfter bragging that the reason <em>Roe v. Wade<\/em> was overturned was because of him, he\u2019s now worried the voters are going to hold him accountable for what he said,\u201d Biden said in Chicago. \u201cWell, we have news for Trump: The voters are going to hold him accountable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The president\u2019s lone noncampaign stop on Wednesday came in Racine, Wisconsin, where he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/2995080\/biden-wisconsin-microsoft-project-racine-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"unveiled\">unveiled<\/a> a multibillion-dollar Microsoft project on the same site as a Trump-backed venture that underdelivered. Even that stop had a sharp campaign angle, seeking to contrast Biden\u2019s business success with Trump\u2019s failure.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a theme that\u2019s likely to continue as Election Day gets nearer, especially if polls continue to find Biden trailing Trump in swing states.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe candidate who is behind always dismisses the significance of polls while the candidate who\u2019s ahead touts them,\u201d Greenberg said. \u201cThat\u2019s been true since the dawn of polling. I can\u2019t read Biden\u2019s mind, but I suspect there is a bit more worry in his camp than they are letting on.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Joe Biden is openly disputing polls indicating he lags behind former President Donald Trump, raising concerns for his campaign. He embarked on a rapid tour across southeast Wisconsin and Chicago. The visit to Wisconsin reflects his efforts to garner funding and backing<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2635,"featured_media":2241541,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/AP24129720242383-2-1024x590.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2241540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/AP24129720242383-2-1024x590.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2241540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2635"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2241540"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2241540\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2241541"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2241540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2241540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2241540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}