{"id":2236244,"date":"2024-05-03T07:21:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T11:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-arent-guaranteed-victory-if-trump-is-convicted\/"},"modified":"2024-05-03T07:24:22","modified_gmt":"2024-05-03T11:24:22","slug":"democrats-arent-guaranteed-victory-if-trump-is-convicted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-arent-guaranteed-victory-if-trump-is-convicted\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats don&#8217;t have a sure win if Trump is convicted"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fdemocrats-arent-guaranteed-victory-if-trump-is-convicted%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2236244&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Former President Donald\u2062 Trump maintains strong polling numbers \u2062ahead\u200b of the election, with Democrats banking on a potential\u200d criminal conviction to alter the dynamics. Uncertainties persist, \u2062prompting Democrats to \u200bconsider alternative \u2064strategies. Despite challenges, Trump&#8217;s resilience in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-gop-resistance-to-trump-is-overstated\/\" title=\"GOP resistance to Trump is exaggerated\">polls raises doubts<\/a> about the impact of convictions, highlighting the race&#8217;s unpredictability leading up to Election Day.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a> is continuing his best run of polling in the nearly nine years he has been running for office six months before the election, but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democratic-party\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Democrats<\/a> have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/2979440\/what-democrats-want-out-of-the-trump-trial\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>long expected<\/a> a criminal conviction to erase his lead.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats may want to start thinking about Plan B in case even this result fails to derail the Trump train.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not to say with any certainty that Trump would survive a conviction in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/daily-memo\/2975683\/groupthink-chorus-emerges-trump-trial\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-big-problem-with-the-stormy-daniels-hush-money-case-against-trump\/\" title=\"The Big Problem With The Stormy Daniels Hush Money Case Against Trump\">hush money case<\/a><\/a> or any other prosecutors are able to sneak in ahead of November. There are plenty of polls that support the theory it would be a campaign-altering event, including one by the <em>New York Times <\/em>and Siena College last year that found a quarter of his own voters thought Republicans shouldn\u2019t nominate him if he is found guilty of a crime.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cConvicted felon\u201d would likely replace \u201cformer president\u201d in front of Trump\u2019s name in every Democratic attack ad.<\/p>\n<p>But the polling since Trump\u2019s New York trial began should introduce some doubt. He has led or been tied with President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a> in five of six national polls released in that time frame. Trump is ahead in the <em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>polling average nationally and in every battleground state. Surveys also suggest people are tuning out the Trump trial.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s leads aren\u2019t particularly big, either nationally or in most of the battlegrounds (though Democrats should be concerned he might be pulling away in the Sunbelt states). But they have been consistent and fairly durable, no matter what else has happened in the campaign.<\/p>\n<p>This is a race between two candidates who have already been president. It\u2019s possible hardly anything that happens between now and Election Day will matter much. <\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s poll numbers have also survived multiple adverse legal outcomes already. It is well known that the indictments boosted him with Republican primary voters. It is also true that the E. Jean Carroll verdict, the judgment that he inflated his asset values, and other unfavorable judicial rulings have been handed down without making him less competitive in the general election.<\/p>\n<p>Then there was the recent CNN <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/04\/25\/politics\/cnn-poll-trump-trial\/index.html\">poll<\/a> that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2024\/04\/26\/trump-criminal-conviction-poll\/\">found <\/a>four out of five Trump voters who might desert him if he\u2019s convicted said they would not consider voting for Biden. That\u2019s not much of a windfall for the Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>This is consistent with an NBC News poll earlier this year, which showed Trump leading by 5 points among <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/many-americans-think-neither-trump-nor-biden-should-run-in-2024-polls-find\/\" title=\"Many Americans Think Neither Trump Nor Biden Should Run in 2024, Polls Find\">registered voters nationally<\/a>. When asked about a Trump conviction, the result flips to a 2-point Biden lead. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/hillary-clinton\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Hillary Clinton<\/a> won the popular vote by 2.1 points in 2016, and we all remember how that turned out. That\u2019s also assuming the result would even hold if the hypothetical became reality.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRepublican pollster Bill McInturff, the GOP half of the bipartisan group of pollsters who conduct the NBC News survey, cautions that the sliver of voters who shift on these two ballots \u2014 55 in total out of 1,000 interviews \u2014 hold overwhelmingly negative opinions about Biden, and they also prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 points,\u201d the network\u2019s Mark Murray <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/trump-conviction-changes-2024-race-latest-poll-rcna137087\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>writes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has already been impeached twice, lost the 2020 election, and presided over \u2014 some would say instigated \u2014\u00a0the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/january-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Jan. 6 Capitol riot<\/a>. Yet he keeps on ticking.<\/p>\n<p>Every Republican who challenged Trump for the nomination was to some extent betting on his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/britney-spears-conservatorship-is-officially-over\/\" title=\"Britney Spears' Conservatorship Is Officially Over\">legal situation<\/a> to take him off the board. It did not happen.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats would be wise to take a less passive approach than Gov. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/ron-desantis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Ron DeSantis<\/a> (R-FL) or, until quite late, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s possible that no one can predict how voters would respond to a Trump conviction, perhaps least of all the voters themselves. Such an unprecedented event might have to be experienced to be understood. The fact of his conviction or the staring down the possibility of incarceration could be a watershed event.<\/p>\n<p>Surely Trump\u2019s prospects are better if this trial ends in an acquittal.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Trump has survived numerous things that would have ended virtually anyone else\u2019s political career. Contrast Trump\u2019s electoral standing with that of indicted Sen. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/bob-menendez\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Bob Menendez<\/a> (D-NJ), whose <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/2440239\/cory-booker-calls-on-new-jersey-colleague-menendez-to-resign-amid-indictment-uproar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>own party<\/a> is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/2803191\/fetterman-bob-menendez-endorsement-andy-kim\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>ready to move on<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Trump, who <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/2361992\/poll-trump-could-shoot-someone-and-keep-his-support\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>famously boasted<\/a> he could shoot people on Fifth Avenue without losing votes, could bring new meaning to the phrase \u201cconviction politician.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Former President Donald Trump is seeing strong polling numbers, yet Democrats anticipate a potential criminal conviction to sway the election. With uncertainties looming, Democrats may need to consider backup plans in case their expectations don&#8217;t materialize<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2659,"featured_media":2236245,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AP24121670091444-1024x708.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2236244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AP24121670091444-1024x708.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2236244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2659"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2236244"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2236244\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2236245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2236244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2236244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2236244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}