{"id":2228861,"date":"2024-04-24T07:37:02","date_gmt":"2024-04-24T11:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-pennsylvania-could-be-ground-zero-for-a-novel-biden-and-trump-presidential-tie\/"},"modified":"2024-04-24T07:40:34","modified_gmt":"2024-04-24T11:40:34","slug":"why-pennsylvania-could-be-ground-zero-for-a-novel-biden-and-trump-presidential-tie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-pennsylvania-could-be-ground-zero-for-a-novel-biden-and-trump-presidential-tie\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Pennsylvania May Become the Epicenter of a Potential Biden and Trump Tie in the Presidential Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">34<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwhy-pennsylvania-could-be-ground-zero-for-a-novel-biden-and-trump-presidential-tie%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2228861&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>In a\u2064 pivotal battleground \u2062for the 2024 election, Pennsylvania emerges as the state to watch, playing a crucial role in potentially deciding a tie between Biden and Trump. The population shifts in swing states have altered the Electoral College landscape, making Pennsylvania&#8217;s outcome a \u2063decisive factor in the election&#8217;s result. Biden and Trump&#8217;s strategies in\u2062 key states\u200c like Nebraska could affect the final electoral count, leading to a possible\u2062 electoral tie and a complex path to victory.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><em>Pennsylvania is the ultimate battleground for 2024 with the White House, Senate, and House all poised to flip based on how voters here cast their ballots. In this series, <strong>Pining for Pennsylvania: Unlocking the crucial Keystone State, <\/strong>the <\/em>Washington Examiner<em> will look at the demographics, politics, and key topics that have made Pennsylvania the must-watch state of the year. Part Five, below, will look at how population shifts could account for the presidential election ending in a tie.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/pennsylvania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Pennsylvania<\/a> is ground zero among the handful of critical battleground states that will decide the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2024-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>2024<\/a> election for President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Joe Biden<\/a> and, to a lesser extent, former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>After the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/newsroom\/press-releases\/2021\/2020-census-apportionment-results.html#:~:text=Texas%20will%20gain%20two%20seats,states'%20number%20of%20seats%20will\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>2020 Census<\/a>, two battleground states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, lost one congressional seat each in Congress due to population losses, as did California, Illinois, New York, Ohio, and West Virginia.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/election-2024\/?utm_source=homepage&#038;utm_medium=banner&#038;utm_campaign=iowa_caucus&#038;utm_id=election2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ELECTION 2024: FOLLOW LATEST COVERAGE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In contrast, Texas gained two congressional seats while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each gained one congressional seat.<\/p>\n<p>Normally, the once-a-decade population changes would not have an outsize impact on a presidential election.<\/p>\n<p>But population shifts in key swing states, most of which Biden won in 2020, changed the Electoral College landscape and have increased the likelihood of a possible electoral tie in November.<\/p>\n<p>The election could be decided based on which candidate wins Pennsylvania. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s [a] good ground zero,\u201d said Vince Galko, a veteran Republican strategist in Pennsylvania. \u201cIt has been for the last several elections, but it seems more so this year than ever.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If Biden loses the state, it will be much harder to defeat Trump, who either needs to win 270 electoral votes or get to a 269-269 tie to hold off Biden.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTrump wins here, it\u2019s over,\u201d Galko said about the Keystone State. \u201cIf one state can determine your fate, it\u2019s where you want to be, as evidenced by the fact that he was here multiple stops last week.\u201d <\/p>\n<h2>Pennsylvania\u2019s population loss in Biden territory <\/h2>\n<p>Much of the Keystone State\u2019s population loss was in counties Biden won in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at the Census Bureau\u2019s changes to county-level population since the 2020 election, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fandmpoll.org\/will-changes-in-state-population-since-2020-help-republicans\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>analysis<\/a> from Franklin &#038; Marshall College showed counties that voted for Trump in 2020 increased by roughly 4,500 people, while the 13 counties that supported Biden declined by more than 45,000 people.<\/p>\n<p>The population losses in Biden counties are mostly attributed to Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, which had the largest net population declines, losing approximately 26,000 and 53,000 residents, respectively. Roughly half of Allegheny and Philadelphia residents who left moved to another part of the state, with many choosing to live in surrounding counties.<\/p>\n<p>Sensing the importance of Pennsylvania, Biden has spent more time there than in any other battleground state.<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>President Joe Biden speaks at the United Steelworkers Headquarters in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, April 17, 2024. (AP Photo\/Gene J. Puskar)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The president held a three-day tour through Pennsylvania this week, seeking to portray himself as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2967683\/biden-populist-tax-pitch-scranton-attacking-trump-billionaire-friendliness\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>champion of the middle class<\/a>, in contrast to Trump\u2019s chumminess with the billionaire class, in his childhood hometown of Scranton.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a stark contrast to Donald Trump and Republicans, who still have no announced staff and no campaign presence in this major battleground,\u201d wrote campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez in a memo this week.<\/p>\n<p>Biden flipped the Keystone State in 2020 by just over 80,000 votes. But Trump aims to retake the state he won in 2016 by just over 44,000 votes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith just 36 percent job approval, Joe Biden is floundering in his home state of Pennsylvania,\u201d Karoline Leavitt, Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ian-sams-former-kamala-aide-and-grillary-clinton-apron-model-lands-new-gig-as-bidens-covid-spox\/\" title=\"Ian Sams, Former Kamala Aide and \u2018Grillary Clinton\u2019 Apron Model, Lands New Gig as Biden\u2019s COVID Spox\">national press secretary<\/a>, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> in a statement. \u201cBetween higher gas prices, surging crime, and failed Democrat policies crushing families at every corner, it\u2019s no wonder that Pennsylvanians across the Commonwealth are increasingly rejecting the failed Biden agenda and supporting President Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Biden also touted the endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2970391\/kennedy-family-members-endorse-joe-bidens-2024-campaign-in-snub-to-rfk-jr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>family members<\/a> during a Philadelphia stop, a move meant to blunt the independent candidate\u2019s campaign. <\/p>\n<p>Kennedy is aiming to gain access to Pennyslvania\u2019s ballot, but some skeptics doubt he could win.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is improbable that any third-party or independent candidate would win even one state and therefore get that state\u2019s electoral votes,\u201d said Bernard Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University. \u201cSuch scenarios would require one of the third-party or independent candidates to have public support that is heavily concentrated in one region of the country, and this has not happened since 1968, when George Wallace won multiple southern states.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Trump, meanwhile, has mostly kept to New York, where he is facing a criminal trial over a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/defiant-trump-says-he-did-nothing-wrong-and-will-never-drop-out-of-2024-race-after-indictment\/\" title=\"Defiant Trump says he 'did nothing wrong' and will 'never' drop out of 2024 race after indictment\">hush money payment scheme<\/a> during the 2016 election.<\/p>\n<p>The former president has sought to make Biden\u2019s campaign work harder in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2971646\/new-york-in-play-trump-alvin-bragg-abuse-justice-lee-zeldin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>New York<\/a>, a reliable blue state, due to the trial. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cDonald Trump has to get Joe Biden on the defense by spending time and money outside Pennsylvania and the couple of other battleground states,\u201d Republican consultant Dennis Lennox said. \u201cIt\u2019s hard to see Trump winning New York, but him playing there forces Biden to spend time and money in an otherwise blue state in the same way George W. Bush in 2004 distracted John Kerry from Ohio by playing in Michigan.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Former President Donald Trump holds up news clippings as he speaks following his trial at a Manhattan criminal court in New York on Thursday, April 18, 2024. (Timothy A. Clary\/Pool Photo via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>How the 2024 election could end in a tie<\/h2>\n<p>In one general election scenario, Biden would hold on to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, branded as the \u201cblue wall,\u201d with Trump flipping Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.<\/p>\n<p>That would result in Biden winning 270 electoral votes to Trump\u2019s 268 electoral votes. But if Nebraska\u2019s rules were changed, from awarding Electoral College votes by congressional districts to winner-take-all, the same scenario would result in a 269-269 tie.<\/p>\n<p>In the event of an electoral tie, the House of Representatives would elect the next president of the U.S., according to the 12th Amendment. But the process isn\u2019t a simple majority vote of the entire House. (More on that process below.) <\/p>\n<p>Republicans are hoping to flip back the \u201cblue wall\u201d in 2024. The Republican National Committee scheduled its convention in Wisconsin and Trump has visited all three states in recent weeks. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAfter four years of weak Joe Biden\u2019s failed agenda, there is no \u2018Blue Wall\u2019 left,\u201d RNC spokeswoman Rachel Lee said in a statement. \u201cBiden is losing in every battleground state \u2014 just like he will in November.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Another scenario of an electoral tie involves Biden winning Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin while Trump wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, assuming Nebraska doesn\u2019t change its rules on awarding electoral votes. But with a Nebraska change, it would result in Trump winning 270 votes to Biden\u2019s 268 votes.<\/p>\n<p>One political expert told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> that if Biden lost the Keystone State, he would need to sweep every other swing state to win the election.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOf course, if [Biden] took North Carolina, that almost offsets Pennsylvania,\u201d said Merrill Matthews, resident scholar at the Institute for Policy Innovation. \u201cSo my sense is he really needs to win Pennsylvania, but I think you could probably make it work the other way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If Trump flips Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and then Biden flips North Carolina and holds on to Georgia and Arizona, the scenario would also result in a 269-269 tie without a Nebraska change.<\/p>\n<p>Trump could also flip Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, with Biden flipping North Carolina to get another 269-269 tie. If there were a winner-take-all system in Nebraska, it would give Trump a 270-268 lead over Biden.<\/p>\n<h2>What Trump is doing in Nebraska to eke out a tiebreaking advantage<\/h2>\n<p>The former president, running a far more sophisticated campaign than in previous years, aims to change how the Electoral College is decided to give him an advantage over Biden.<\/p>\n<p>Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2958162\/nebraska-gop-official-resigns-electoral-vote-rules\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>unsuccessfully<\/a> pressured Nebraska Republican lawmakers to change the state\u2019s law to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/elected-official-fined-for-voting-twice-in-2020-general-election\/\" title=\"Official fined for double voting in 2020 election\">award electoral votes<\/a> on a winner-take-all basis. But there are still some Republicans attempting to change Nebraska\u2019s rules.<\/p>\n<p>Notably, Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) and Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) favored changing Nebraska\u2019s rules.<\/p>\n<p>If the effort does succeed later on, Biden would not win one of the state\u2019s five electoral votes in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/florida-lawmaker-moves-to-rename-highway-after-president-donald-j-trump\/\" title=\"Florida Lawmaker Moves to Rename Highway After President Donald J. Trump\">deep red state<\/a>, most likely from the 2nd Congressional District, where he won an electoral vote in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Maine is the other state that awards electoral votes based on congressional districts. Trump won one electoral vote in Maine in 2016 and 2020 despite losing the state.<\/p>\n<h2>The Republican advantage in the House <\/h2>\n<p>If the election does end in an electoral tie, it would throw the race to the House of Representatives for a contingent election.<\/p>\n<p>However, the current members of the House would not decide the election. That would be left to the next members of Congress, who will also be on the ballot during the Nov. 5 elections and sworn into Congress in January 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Each state delegation gets a single vote during the process that is decided by a majority vote. In 2024, Republicans control nearly the majority of state delegations, 25 out of the 50. Democrats control 23 House delegations with Minnesota and North Carolina both split.<\/p>\n<p>Either Biden or Trump would need to win 26 House delegations to win the election in the event of an electoral tie.<\/p>\n<p>North Carolina\u2019s redrawn maps give Republicans the advantage, 10 Republican seats to three Democratic seats with one competitive seat, which could give Trump the coveted 26th vote needed for victory. In Minnesota\u2019s 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) has the only competitive seat in that state this year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven if the Democrats win a majority in the House, that\u2019s not going to guarantee a Biden win in this type of scenario,\u201d said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of <em>Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/em> at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. \u201cEven after 2020 when the Democrats were still in the majority, an electoral tie would have still favored Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In 2020, despite controlling the House, Democrats only controlled <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/the-dreaded-269-269-scenario-an-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>23 House delegations<\/a> while Republicans controlled 26 and Pennslyvania was split.<\/p>\n<p>Pennsylvania\u2019s delegation has nine Democrats to eight Republicans, meaning it would back Biden in the case of an electoral tie. But with Democrats in control of more competitive seats, there is a possibility Republicans could win the majority of the delegation after November.<\/p>\n<p>The Senate, meanwhile, would select the vice president with each senator getting a single vote if there were an electoral tie.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>But if there is a contingent election, Elaine Kamarck, a Brookings senior fellow in the governance studies program and director of the Center for Effective Public Management, said the election could come down to tense internal deliberations among state congressional delegations.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMy guess is they have to keep voting,\u201d Kamarck said. \u201cAnd at some point, somebody in one of these delegations would change their mind and flip the delegation. One or two people would flip the delegation and would probably do it in favor of whoever won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/6-steps-the-democrats-will-take-to-fundamentally-alter-america-and-ensure-their-permanent-power\/\" title=\"6 Steps The Democrats Will Take To Fundamentally Alter America And Ensure Their Permanent Power\">national popular vote<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pennsylvania stands as the pivotal battleground for 2024, where the White House, Senate, and House hinges on voter choices. In the series &#8220;Pining for Pennsylvania: Unlocking the Keystone State,&#8221; the Washington Examiner explores the state&#8217;s demographics, politics, and pressing issues, highlighting why Pennsylvania is the state to watch this year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2658,"featured_media":2228862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AP24099694582374-1024x683.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2228861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AP24099694582374-1024x683.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2228861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2658"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2228861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2228861\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2228862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2228861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2228861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2228861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}