{"id":2218136,"date":"2024-04-11T07:05:02","date_gmt":"2024-04-11T11:05:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/threes-a-crowd-third-party-candidates-threaten-to-upend-battleground-arizona\/"},"modified":"2024-04-11T07:09:23","modified_gmt":"2024-04-11T11:09:23","slug":"threes-a-crowd-third-party-candidates-threaten-to-upend-battleground-arizona","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/threes-a-crowd-third-party-candidates-threaten-to-upend-battleground-arizona\/","title":{"rendered":"A trio in the mix: Third-party contenders shake up crucial Arizona race"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fthrees-a-crowd-third-party-candidates-threaten-to-upend-battleground-arizona%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2218136&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The\u2064 2024 rematch\u2062 between Biden and Trump has sparked interest\u200b in third-party \u200ccandidates, with Robert \u200bF. Kennedy Jr. gaining traction at\u200c 11.7%. The \u2064rise of alternative voices in Arizona highlights the \u200dpotential impact of third-party challengers in the upcoming election, signaling a shift\u200d in the state&#8217;s \u200dpolitical\u200c landscape. \u200bKennedy&#8217;s ballot push and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/bill-maher-mocks-democratic-politicians-for-racial-pandering-in-2024-campaigns\/\" title=\"Bill Maher taunts Democratic candidates for 'racial pandering' in 2024 bids\">voter dynamics<\/a> \u2063could sway the race outcome. The 2024 Biden-Trump rematch has led to increased attention on third-party candidates, notably Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at 11.7%. In Arizona, the emergence\u2063 of alternative voices underscores the\u2062 significant role\u200d third-party \u2064challengers\u200d might play in altering the state&#8217;s\u200d political scene. Kennedy&#8217;s ballot efforts and changing\u2064 voter dynamics may \u2063influence\u2064 the election results significantly.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><em>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/spoiler-alert-rfk-jr-embraces-the-chaos-has-democrats-paranoid-hell-cost-biden\/\" title=\"Warning: RFK Jr. causes concern among Democrats as he embraces unpredictability, potentially impacting Biden\">presidential election rematch<\/a> in 2024 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has helped pave the way for renewed interest in third-party candidates. The most dominant interloper is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is polling at a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">healthy 11.7%<\/a> and is being taken seriously, particularly by the Democratic National Committee. This cycle has also seen No Labels threaten, and then fail, to field an alternative candidate, which nonetheless points to voters seeking an alternative to the status quo. This <\/em>Washington Examiner <em>series, <strong>Three\u2019s a Crowd<\/strong>, will look at how and why third-party candidates could play a major spoiler come November. <strong>Part Four<\/strong> will take a closer look at how Arizona could play a key role in the third party chaos.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/arizona\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"the Grand Canyon State\">the Grand Canyon State<\/a>, insiders are beginning to sound the alarm about how serious the threat of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/third-party\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"third-party\">third-party<\/a> challengers could be on the rematch between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"President Joe Biden\">President Joe Biden<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"former President Donald Trump\">former President Donald Trump<\/a> in November.<\/p>\n<p>As polling <a href=\"https:\/\/d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net\/documents\/econTabReport_Ba6mR1n.pdf\">continues to illustrate<\/a> how unhappy voters are with both of the mainstream general election choices, there\u2019s growing concern that third-party and independent presidential candidates could play an outsize role in a battleground state like Arizona and could ultimately tip the contest one way or another. <\/p>\n<p>Campaigns by Democrat-turned-independent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/rfk-jr\/\">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<\/a>, progressive contender <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/cornel-west\/\">Cornel West<\/a>, and the Green Party\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/jill-stein\/\">Jill Stein<\/a> could <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/louisiana-democrats-seek-to-grab-centrist-vote-as-republicans-eye-governors-seat\/\" title=\"Democrats in Louisiana are vying for democratic support as Republicans vie for governor.\">attract centrist voters<\/a> in a state that has transformed from solid red to one of the country\u2019s most competitive battlegrounds over the course of the last six years. <\/p>\n<p>President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\">Joe Biden<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/1747884\/biden-wins-arizonas-11-electoral-votes-following-trump-campaign-objections\/\">won<\/a> Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020 and voter registration data continues to show how influential moderates will be this cycle. The state\u2019s 1.4 million voters listed as \u201cother\u201d now make up <a href=\"https:\/\/azsos.gov\/elections\/results-data\/voter-registration-statistics\">34% of Arizona\u2019s electorate,<\/a> far outnumbering Democrats and only slightly behind the number of registered Republicans. <\/p>\n<p>Currently, Kennedy is on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/company-leading-arizona-recount-asks-court-that-procedures-be-kept-secret\/\" title=\"Company Leading Arizona Recount Asks Court That Procedures Be Kept Secret\">general election ballot<\/a> in just one state: Utah. However, the outside group supporting Kennedy\u2019s independent presidential bid <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2891049\/rfk-jr-gets-name-on-two-more-state-ballots\/\">announced<\/a> in late February they had gathered 75,000 signatures to qualify him to appear on the ballot in Arizona, almost twice the minimum amount of 43,000 that an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/meet-the-man-trying-to-shake-up-yales-secretive-governing-body\/\" title=\"Meet the Man Trying to Shake Up Yale\u2019s Secretive Governing Body\">independent candidate<\/a> needs to qualify for statewide elections.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019ve been at several events where there\u2019s been Kennedy supporters or paid circulators, gathering signatures for Kennedy,\u201d said Paul Bentz, senior vice president at the Arizona political consulting group Highground, Inc. \u201cI suspect they are going to have a sizable amount of signatures and it\u2019s probably likely if they are targeting Arizona, he would be able to get on the ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a voter rally, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2023, in Phoenix. (AP Photo\/Matt York)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Kennedy would need to file those signatures with elections officials between July 28 and Aug. 17; then officials will review the signatures to ensure they are valid. The Green Party is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azcentral.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2023\/12\/21\/green-party-earns-spot-on-az-ballot-in-federal-statewide-other-races\/71803236007\/\">also set <\/a>to appear on the ballot in Arizona. <\/p>\n<p>Over the last couple of general election cycles, third-party candidates haven\u2019t had a major impact on the outcome. In 2020, Green Party presidential write-in candidate Howie Hawkins received 0.05% of the vote in the state. Stein received 34,345 votes in 2016, or 1.3% of the vote, but that wasn\u2019t enough to make an impact in Arizona, where Trump defeated Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton by nearly 100,000 votes. <\/p>\n<p>As national Democrats attempt to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2954333\/spoiler-alert-rfk-jr-embraces-chaos-democrats-paranoid-cost-biden\/\">challenge<\/a> Kennedy\u2019s ballot push with teams of lawyers evaluating ballot efforts across the country, Bentz acknowledges there\u2019s a lot of uncertainty about what a third-party candidate may bring to the race in a battleground state. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat we have seen in Arizona is that Democrats have benefitted in the last few cycles from their crossover appeal to independent and unaffiliated voters and crossover Republicans who won\u2019t vote for a MAGA candidate,\u201d Bentz said. \u201cThe state is up for grabs, and any additional people in the race, anyone siphoning off attention or votes, could harm either candidate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/politics\/elections\/trump-biden-poll-swing-states-ad594acb\">polls<\/a> released this week by the <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em>, Kennedy received the support of 13% of voters in Arizona, a statistic both Democrats and Republicans are watching closely. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere isn\u2019t another state in this country where RFK could play spoiler as much as here in Arizona,\u201d said Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist based in Phoenix. \u201cThere is no doubt RFK will not win one state, particularly Arizona, but he certainly could siphon enough votes away from likely Biden but also Trump to sway the state, it\u2019s a real possibility here in Arizona.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>A woman is working to get signatures to put Robert F. Kennedy JR on the Arizona Ballot during Arizona\u2019s 11th Annual Celebrate &#038; Protect the 2nd Amendment\/Right to Keep &#038; Bear Arms event at Wesley Bolin Memorial Plaza in Phoenix on Feb. 17, 2024. (Photo By: Alexandra Buxbaum\/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Abortion-rights advocates were already working on a petition to place an <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.arizona.vote\/electioninfo\/assets\/47\/0\/BallotMeasures\/I-05-2024%20Arizona%20for%20Abortion%20Access.pdf\">amendment<\/a> on the ballot in the state for the 2024 election that would make access to the procedure a \u201cfundamental right,\u201d even before the state\u2019s Supreme Court <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azcourts.gov\/Portals\/0\/OpinionFiles\/Supreme\/2024\/CV230005PR.pdf\">upheld<\/a> a Civil War-era law on Tuesday that nearly bans all <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/abortion\/\">abortions<\/a> in the state. In the wake of those recent events, Marson believes it could sway some moderates who may have been considering a third-party option toward Biden.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think that is the saving grace \u2014 or the one bright spot in Arizona for Joe Biden, because there will almost assuredly be an abortion initiative on the ballot and that may bring out enough young first-time voters who may stick around to not only vote for the abortion initiative but maybe Joe Biden and Ruben Gallego,\u201d Marson said. <\/p>\n<p>Mike Noble, the founder of Arizona-based polling firm Noble Predictive Insights, believes Kennedy poses the biggest challenge to Biden in Arizona. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cRight now, based on the polling, he seems to be pulling a little bit more from Biden than Trump,\u201d Noble explained in a phone interview with the <em>Washington Examiner. <\/em>\u201cRemember 11,000 votes was the difference last time, so what was that, less than 1 percentage point? If RFK makes the ballot, he\u2019s going to get at least 3% or so.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a huge wildcard but ultimately could tip the balance to one side or another, so yeah, his impact is small but mighty,\u201d Noble explained.<\/p>\n<p>While <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2953803\/no-labels-ends-pursuit-of-third-party-presidential-ticket-for-2024\/\">No Labels abruptly announced late last week<\/a> it would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2956343\/threes-a-crowd-no-labels-surrender-underscores-difficulty-third-parties-face-in-november\/\">not follow through<\/a> with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/third-party\">third-party<\/a> ticket after all, the group made waves in Arizona when it sued <\/p>\n<p>Secretary of State Adrian Fontes for his decision to allow non-presidential candidates running under the No Labels ticket to be placed on the ballot, which Arizona U.S. District Judge John Tuchi ultimately ruled against in January.<\/p>\n<p>As of the state\u2019s most recent primary election, 27,631 Arizona voters had active registrations with No Labels according to <a href=\"https:\/\/azsos.gov\/elections\/results-data\/voter-registration-statistics\">online voter registration<\/a> statistics, almost as many as the Arizona Libertarian Party and almost 10 times as many as the state\u2019s Green Party.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s less competition in the third-party space now, but again, you look at why No Labels folded up their tent,\u201d Noble said. \u201cThe candidates they went to didn\u2019t want to ultimately put their thumb on the scale one way or the other.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Still, some experts believe even with the third-party threat that often is detrimental to an incumbent president \u2014 the math indicates an uphill battle for former President Trump to win a state like Arizona. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t know how he wins Arizona,\u201d said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Republican consultant in the state. \u201cIn Arizona, the rule is, you have to maintain 85 to 90% of your base of your Republican or Democratic base. And then you have to win a plurality of unaffiliated voters because those unaffiliated voters are the swing voters in the electorate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Can he get to 90, can he get to 85? And was he to stick around 80, do some of those people just siphon off to Kennedy,\u201d Coughlin questioned.\u00a0 \u201cI\u2019m locked solid shirt certain; there\u2019s no way [Trump] wins a plurality of unaffiliated voters. It\u2019s just not possible.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><strong>CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Coughlin believes if Kennedy appears on the November ballot in Arizona, he likely will siphon support from both Trump and Biden.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe could take some votes from Trump, you know, because he\u2019s the conspiracy theorist, anti-establishment guy. There\u2019s likely going to be some of those votes that fall his way.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2024 presidential showdown between Biden and Trump sparks a surge of interest in third-party candidates. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., polling at 11.7%, gains traction, notably with the Democratic National Committee. The election cycle features the rise of alternative voices, suggesting a shift in traditional party dynamics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2657,"featured_media":2218137,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AP24048793346603-1024x683.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2218136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AP24048793346603-1024x683.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2218136","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2657"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2218136"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2218136\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2218137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2218136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2218136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2218136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}