{"id":2213495,"date":"2024-04-04T23:29:02","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T03:29:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polls-say-black-voters-are-migrating-toward-trump-will-actual-votes-follow\/"},"modified":"2024-04-04T23:29:02","modified_gmt":"2024-04-05T03:29:02","slug":"polls-say-black-voters-are-migrating-toward-trump-will-actual-votes-follow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polls-say-black-voters-are-migrating-toward-trump-will-actual-votes-follow\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls say black voters are migrating toward Trump. Will actual votes follow?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpolls-say-black-voters-are-migrating-toward-trump-will-actual-votes-follow%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2213495&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>One of the most discussed storylines of the early <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2024-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"2024 campaign\">2024 campaign<\/a> season is the historic shift of black voters toward former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Donald Trump\">Donald Trump<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The idea that Trump is picking up more support from the black community, and black men in particular, has been mentioned in multiple polls and in television programs ranging from <em>Real Time with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/bill-maher\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Bill Maher\">Bill Maher<\/a><\/em> to <em>Saturday Night Live<\/em> to MSNBC\u2019s <em>Morning Joe. <\/em>But it was Trump himself who may have gotten the ball rolling with his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/2873584\/donald-trump-courts-black-voters-polls-show-bidens-support-slipping\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Bill Maher\">February appearance<\/a> at the Black Conservative Federation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you want strong borders, safe neighborhoods, rising wages, good jobs, great education, and the return of the American dream,\u201d Trump told the crowd in Columbia, South Carolina, \u201cthen congratulations, you are a Republican.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption>Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump arrives at the Black Conservative Federation\u2019s Annual BCF Honors Gala at the Columbia Metropolitan Convention Center in Columbia, S.C., Friday, Feb. 23, 2024. (AP Photo\/Andrew Harnik)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In attendance were leading black Republicans such as former Trump Cabinet member Ben Carson, Rep. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/byron-donalds\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Tim Scott\">Byron Donalds<\/a> (R-FL), and Sen. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/tim-scott\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Tim Scott\">Tim Scott<\/a> (R-SC), who has been floated as a vice presidential candidate.<\/p>\n<p>A range of surveys this spring have fueled the narrative, with many finding that Trump\u2019s support from black voters could be as much as double what it was in 2020. <\/p>\n<p>Of course, even doubling support would still mean an overwhelming win for President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Joe Biden\">Joe Biden<\/a> within the voting bloc. <\/p>\n<p>Black voters have supported Democrats at margins approaching or even exceeding 90% since the Civil Rights Movement. Trump won 6% of the black vote in 2016 and 8% in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center, with no Republican drawing above 12% in more than 50 years. <\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s why polls showing Trump getting black support in the teens or even low 20s are creating so much fanfare. What\u2019s more, in closely contested states such as Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, picking up even a few percentage points of additional black backing could swing the entire election. <\/p>\n<p>Many voices on the Left are taking notice and generally focusing not on Trump\u2019s appeal but on Biden\u2019s lack thereof. <\/p>\n<p>On <em>Saturday Night Live\u2019s <\/em>March 30 Weekend Update segment, host Michael Che quipped that Biden would visit the site of the Baltimore bridge collapse \u201cbecause, like that bridge, Biden is no longer connecting with black communities.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Bill Maher dedicated an entire segment of his HBO show to the idea that Democrats are too focused on identity politics and not enough on winning policies.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe more you obsess over identity, the more you ignore the bread-and-butter issues that win and lose elections,\u201d he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=5Gb5MalUjvI&#038;t=93s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"said\">said<\/a>. \u201cThe real issue is class, not race, and the real gap is the diploma divide, and the real future of the party, and maybe democracy, depends on Democrats figuring that out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On MSNBC, the Rev. Al Sharpton blasted Biden for attending a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2944728\/six-standout-moments-biden-star-studded-fundraiser-obama-clinton\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"high-dollar New York City fundraiser\">high-dollar New York City fundraiser<\/a> with former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton while skipping the city\u2019s working-class areas. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf I was going to do anything in the city, a big beautiful ritzy night with the two ex-presidents, I would have had Biden that morning have breakfast in Harlem or Brooklyn,\u201d he said on April 1. \u201cSomething to connect people because the average person in New York that\u2019s dealing with being afraid of the subway or dealing with a policeman being killed didn\u2019t relate to a ritzy thing. Balance it out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Trump attended the Long Island funeral of fallen New York City police officer Jonathan Diller the same day as Biden\u2019s Manhattan fundraiser.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s message at the gathering of black Republicans was issue-focused \u2014 centering on reducing crime and strengthening the economy. Gina Barr, a political operative and former director of women and urban engagement for the Republican National Committee, told the <em>Washington Examiner\u2019s<\/em> Mabinty Quarshie that inflation remains a big problem. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat we\u2019re seeing now is that people are realizing that their money doesn\u2019t go as far as what it did,\u201d Barr said. \u201cAnd so when they\u2019re seeing that, that now that their money isn\u2019t as good as what it was, they think, \u2018Oh, man, like yeah, I might not have liked Trump, but at least my money was good.&#8217;\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But Trump also stepped into controversy by saying he thought black voters could relate to him because they\u2019ve both been discriminated against, noting that the black community \u201cembraced\u201d his Atlanta mug shot \u201cmore than anybody else.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/2881427\/trump-backlash-black-leaders-comments-black-vote\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"drew a rebuke\">drew a rebuke<\/a> from Democratic National Committee press secretary Sarafina Chitika.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis might come as news to Trump, but pushing tired tropes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/2862652\/trump-touts-shoe-deal-sneaker-con\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"wannabe Jordans\">wannabe Jordans<\/a>, and mug shot T-shirts isn\u2019t going to win over black voters,\u201d she said, pointing to high black unemployment rates during the early days of the pandemic. \u201cTrump is showing black voters exactly what he thinks of them \u2014 and his ideas to win them over are as corny and racist as he is.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Biden campaign employs a director of black media, Jasmine Harris, who released a similar statement. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe audacity of Donald Trump to speak to a room full of black voters during Black History Month as if he isn\u2019t the proud poster boy for modern racism,\u201d Harris said. \u201cThis is the same man who falsely accused the Central Park Five, questioned George Floyd\u2019s humanity, compared his own impeachment trial to being lynched, and ensured the unemployment gap for black workers spiked during his presidency.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Wilfred Reilly, a political science professor at the historically black Kentucky State University, said \u201cI\u2019m very skeptical\u201d of a quick uptick in black support for Trump and that statements such as those above are one of the reasons why. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf there is a coordinated [effort for the GOP to gain black votes], there\u2019s going to be plenty of ammunition that people in the mainstream of the Democratic Party can throw back at that,\u201d he said. Reilly predicted minority support for Republicans will trend upward but over a period of decades rather than months.<\/p>\n<p>Democratic strategist Brad Bannon acknowledged that Trump could wind up picking up a bit more support from the black community this cycle but pointed out that the election won\u2019t happen in a vacuum. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s sort of like whack-a-mole,\u201d Bannon said. \u201cHe may do a little better among black voters than in 2020. But the question is, will he do as well with unmarried female voters as he did in 2020?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bannon pointed out that unmarried women voted for Trump at a rate of 36% in 2020 but only supported Republicans at a rate of 31% in 2022, following Jan. 6 and the Supreme Court overturning <em>Roe v. Wade.<\/em> Such a slip among all unmarried female voters could likely offset any gains Trump makes with black voters, who collectively represent 14% of the electorate. <\/p>\n<p>Some experts are skeptical that Trump will even need to make the trade-off. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Emory University professor emeritus Alan Abramowitz, writing for Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball, noted that not only did Trump fail to pick up much black support in 2020, but results from the 2022 midterm elections and the makeup of the 2024 primary electorate show no indication of a historic shift in voting trends. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe evidence \u2026 does provide grounds for skepticism about claims of a dramatic surge in black support for Donald Trump and the GOP in 2024,\u201d he <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/black-voters-and-the-2024-presidential-election-a-breakthrough-for-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"wrote\">wrote<\/a>. \u201cAcceptance of such claims should at least await better evidence from well-designed surveys with large sub-samples of black voters or data from actual election results.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the most discussed storylines of the early 2024 campaign season is the historic shift of black voters toward former President Donald Trump. The idea that Trump is picking up more support from the black community, and black men in particular, has been mentioned in multiple polls and in television programs ranging from Real<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2635,"featured_media":2213496,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AP24031554012064-1024x683.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2213495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/wex-s3.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AP24031554012064-1024x683.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2213495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2635"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2213495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2213495\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2213496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2213495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2213495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2213495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}