{"id":2170088,"date":"2024-02-07T10:37:01","date_gmt":"2024-02-07T15:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/historian-with-infallible-record-of-predicting-presidents-weighs-in-on-2024-race\/"},"modified":"2024-02-07T10:37:01","modified_gmt":"2024-02-07T15:37:01","slug":"historian-with-infallible-record-of-predicting-presidents-weighs-in-on-2024-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/historian-with-infallible-record-of-predicting-presidents-weighs-in-on-2024-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Historian With Infallible Record Of Predicting Presidents Weighs In On 2024 Race"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fhistorian-with-infallible-record-of-predicting-presidents-weighs-in-on-2024-race%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2170088&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p style=\"font-weight: 400\">A historian with a perfect record of predicting the results of American presidential elections for 40 years stated that despite the polls, President Biden still has a lead over former President Trump \u2014 but cautioned he won\u2019t make a prediction until August.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has infallibly predicted every election since 1984, created along with Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok a prediction model of 13 keys which they published in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC349231\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1981 paper<\/a>, later expanding the number of keys to 13. Lichtman then published his book \u201cThe Keys to the White House,\u201d later reissued as \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Predicting-Next-President-White-House\/dp\/153814865X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Predicting the Next President: The Keys To The White House<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cA lot of things would have to go wrong [for the election keys] to go against Biden,\u201d Lichtman told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/conventional-wisdom-said-trump-couldnt-win-in-2016-this-historians-keys-said-he-would-what-are-those-keys-telling-us-today-4562126e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Market Watch<\/a>. \u201cBut they could. I am very careful in not making a prediction.\u201d He said that Biden currently leads Trump in five of the keys, while Trump leads in three, with the rest undecided.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">The 13 keys include:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in House than after the previous midterm elections.<\/li>\n<li>No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.<\/li>\n<li>Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.<\/li>\n<li>No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.<\/li>\n<li>Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.<\/li>\n<li>Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.<\/li>\n<li>Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.<\/li>\n<li>No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.<\/li>\n<li>No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.<\/li>\n<li>No foreign\/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.<\/li>\n<li>Major foreign\/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.<\/li>\n<li>Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.<\/li>\n<li>Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Lichtman said Biden led Trump in key# 2, as Biden has not faced a serious challenger in his own party; key #3, as he is the incumbent; key #6, claiming the long-term economic trend is headed upward; key # 7, that Biden has made major changes, and #13, explaining that a challenger should have broadly\u00a0<em>bipartisan<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em>support or be a national hero in the way former President Dwight Eisenhower was after World war II.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Trump leads in keys 1, 11, and 12, Lichtman opined, pointing out (#1) that the Democrats do not hold more seats in House than after the previous midterm elections; (#11) Biden has not had a major foreign policy win, and (#12) Biden is neither charismatic nor a national hero.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Key #9 would depend on the American people feeling that the Biden administration is tainted by a major scandal. Lichtman argued that the Trump campaign has not been able to convince the general public, not just Republicans, of a major scandal involving the Biden administration.<\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https:\/\/onelink.to\/dwapp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" aria-describedby=\"sk-tooltip-9096\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/onelink.to\/dwapp&#038;source=gmail&#038;ust=1707398743437000&#038;usg=AOvVaw0CP8e3SifebRk-S6RkCL9V\">CLICK HERE TO GET THE DAILYWIRE+ APP<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cHere is the secret to being a successful forecaster,\u201d Lichtman said. \u201cThe most important thing is keeping your own personal views out of it. I\u2019ve called about as many Republican wins and Democratic wins. In 2016 I was virtually alone in predicting a win for Donald Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A historian with a perfect record of predicting the results of American presidential elections for 40 years stated that despite the polls, President Biden still has a lead over former President Trump \u2014 but cautioned he won\u2019t make a prediction until August. American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has infallibly predicted every election since 1984<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":2170089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/dw-wp-production.imgix.net\/2024\/02\/GettyImages-83470340.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[541],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2170088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-daily-wire"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/dw-wp-production.imgix.net\/2024\/02\/GettyImages-83470340.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2170088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2170088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2170088\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2170089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2170088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2170088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2170088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}