{"id":2149147,"date":"2024-01-15T07:53:02","date_gmt":"2024-01-15T12:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-trump-is-winning-by-double-digits-heading-into-iowa\/"},"modified":"2024-01-15T07:58:11","modified_gmt":"2024-01-15T12:58:11","slug":"why-trump-is-winning-by-double-digits-heading-into-iowa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-trump-is-winning-by-double-digits-heading-into-iowa\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump leads by a significant margin in Iowa"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwhy-trump-is-winning-by-double-digits-heading-into-iowa%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2149147&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div class=\"article-content\">\n<h2>Nobody \u2064did it. Probably, at least.<\/h2>\n<p>It\u2019s the morning of the\u2063 Iowa caucus\u2064 and, in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/news\/politics\/iowa-poll\/caucus\/2024\/01\/13\/iowa-poll-final-caucus-rankings-for-trump-haley-desantis-ramaswamy\/72215669007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">words<\/a> of the Des Moines Register, \u201cDonald \u200cTrump \u200bretains a commanding \u200blead.\u201d This comes\u200c according \u2064to the outlet\u2019s latest poll, which shows Trump with a staggering\u2063 28-point advantage going into the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/01\/13\/trump-iowa-caucuses-winter-storm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201ccoldest \u200dcaucus\u201d<\/a> in\u2064 years.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<h3>This \u2064should chill the\u200c Beltway most of all.<\/h3>\n<p>The Des Moines Register now \u2064puts Ron DeSantis in third place at\u2064 16 percent, down four points to Nikki Haley, a number just outside the margin of error. This is a shocking failure \u2062on the part of DeSantis, a successful populist who tapped an army of \u200bBeltway pundits to put\u2062 nearly all the\u200b campaign\u2019s \u2063eggs in\u2062 the Iowa basket. But add DeSantis\u2019 16 points together \u2063with Haley\u2019s 20, and Trump is still up by double digits. Consider also that \u2063many millions <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/politics\/policy\/iowa-caucus-economy-money-8803f2c0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">more<\/a> ad dollars were spent touting DeSantis and Haley.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Republican voters just prefer Trump. In \u2064RealClearPolitics\u2019 polling\u200d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/republican-primary\/2024\/iowa-caucus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">average<\/a>, Trump\u2062 is at\u2063 52.5 percent\u2063 in Iowa and 61.4 percent nationally. He leads \u2062by \u200cdouble digits in New \u200cHampshire. Sure, Haley and even DeSantis could over-perform the\u200b polls \u200cin Iowa, head into\u200d New \u2064Hampshire and South Carolina with momentum, over-perform there, and cruise into Super Tuesday on March 5 with an influx of cash and confidence.<\/p>\n<p>The odds are low but not impossible. \u200dThere\u2019s \u2064a \u2064path if\u200c you \u2063squint. Yet it requires convincing an enormous swath of the Republican electorate \u2014 which has moved further and \u200dfurther into Trump\u2019s\u200c corner over the last year \u2014 to suddenly pivot.<\/p>\n<p>In 2016, Trump led Iowa by\u2064 about\u2062 five \u200cpoints in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2016\/president\/ia\/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">RCP\u2019s<\/a> \u200cfinal average. He lost by about three points \u200dto Ted Cruz. Trump was polling just under 30 percent. Nationally, he hovered around 35 \u200cpercent.\u2062 Well over half of the Republican primary electorate preferred a candidate other than Trump as the caucus kicked\u200c off.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<h3>DeSantis, according \u200cto RCP, was at one point about 13 points behind Trump.<\/h3>\n<p>He\u2019s now almost 40\u200b points behind the \u2063former president nationally.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Democrats\u2019\u200d lawfare coincided\u2064 with \u2062a rise in the polls\u2062 for Trump. \u2064Counterintuitive as it may \u200bseem, the indictments were always going to make it difficult for another GOP candidate to poll more competitively.\u2064 To her credit, Nikki\u200b Haley has been \u200dsteadily \u200beating away at\u200b DeSantis\u2019 comfortable second-place position \u200csince the fall. (DeSantis led in New Hampshire until Haley started gaining on him in mid-September.) In Iowa, nearly half of\u200c Haley\u2019s voters <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/elections\/4408071-almost-half-of-haley-supporters-say-they-would-vote-for-biden-over-trump-iowa-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">say<\/a> they \u200bwould vote for President Biden over Trump. \u200dShe likely has a ceiling in most states that\u2019ll\u2064 make it tough \u200cto compete down\u2062 the line.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, if Iowa shakes out anywhere near\u2063 the polling, \u2063it\u2062 will mark the\u200d beginning of the end for\u2063 DeSantis\u2019 much-anticipated political experiment: Can Trump be defeated by a candidate with \u2063all the benefits and none \u200bof the baggage?<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps \u200bthe most frustrating \u200ctakeaway\u200c from DeSantis\u2019 slump\u200c is that we still don\u2019t know\u200d the\u200c answer to that question\u200b because he allowed Beltway vest aficionados and their friends \u2062in \u200cthe donor class to steer his \u200ccareer off\u200d course. When \u2062Trump finally attacked Vivek Ramaswamy two \u200bdays before Iowa, the long-shot candidate\u2019s response\u200c was a vision of what could have been \u2062for DeSantis.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<h3>\u201cYes, I saw President Trump\u2019s \u2063Truth\u2064 Social post,\u201d\u200c Ramaswamy\u2064 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/VivekGRamaswamy\/status\/1746360780436427244?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">posted<\/a> on X. \u201cIt\u2019s an \u2062unfortunate move by\u2063 his campaign advisors, I don\u2019t think friendly fire is\u200b helpful. \u200dDonald Trump was the greatest President of \u200bthe 21st century, \u2062and \u2063I\u2019m\u2063 not\u200d going to criticize him in response to this late attack.\u201d<\/h3>\n<p>He added, \u201cI\u2019m worried for Trump. \u200dI\u2019m worried\u200c for our country. I\u2019ve stood up \u200dagainst the persecutions against Trump, and I\u2019ve defended \u2063him at every\u200d step,\u201d later concluding, \u200c\u201cI want to save Trump &#038;\u200d to save this country. Let\u2019s do it together. You won\u2019t hear any\u200c friendly fire\u2063 from me.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Back in September, The New York Times\u200d reported on a memo from\u200b an anti-Trump PAC\u2063 helmed by\u200c Club for Growth President David McIntosh. The\u200b memo, McIntosh \u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/conservative-pac-trump-attack-ad-failures-can-and-did-move-needle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote<\/a>, \u201cshares findings from our\u2062 attempts to\u200c identify an effective approach to lower President Trump\u2019s support among Republican\u2063 primary voters so we \u200dcan\u200c maximize an alternative candidate\u2019s ballot share when the field\u200b begins to consolidate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The takeaway from \u2064their\u2063 research was perhaps the\u200b most important observation of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/harris-files-paperwork-to-put-biden-on-s-c-primary-ballot\/\" title=\"Harris Files Paperwork To Put Biden On S.C. Primary Ballot\">primary \u2062cycle<\/a>, \u200cthough should \u200bhave been obvious from the moment every candidate entered the race.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<h3>\u201cBroadly acceptable \u2064messages against\u2063 President Trump with Republican\u200c primary voters\u2062 that do \u2062not produce a meaningful\u2062 backlash include sharing concerns\u2063 about his ability \u2062to beat President Biden, expressions of Trump fatigue due to the distractions he \u2062creates and \u200dthe polarization of the country, as well \u2064as \u200chis pattern of attacking\u2062 conservative leaders for \u2062self-interested reasons,\u201d \u2064McIntosh wrote. \u201cIt is essential to\u200b disarm the \u200cviewer at the opening of the ad \u2064by establishing that the \u2064person being interviewed \u2064on camera is a \u200dRepublican \u200cwho previously\u2062 supported President\u200c Trump, \u2064otherwise, the viewer will automatically put their guard\u2062 up, assuming the messenger\u200d is just another Trump-hater whose opinion should\u200c be summarily dismissed.\u201d<\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Whatever you think of Ramaswamy (he previewed a potential Iowa\u200c surprise\u200b in an interview \u200bwith\u2062 The Federalist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spreaker.com\/episode\/vivek-ramaswamy-on-ron-desantis-ai-and-christianity--57909428\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>), his response to\u200c Trump captured the\u200b lesson of that memo almost effortlessly. He\u2019s been doing it for months.<\/p>\n<p>On DeSantis,\u2063 a popular\u200d and successful\u200d governor with a healthy war \u2062chest, that\u2063 approach to Trump would almost certainly have improved his odds. It\u2019s why Florida voters\u200b loved him. Politically, at least, running against Trump \u200ddidn\u2019t need \u2062to \u2063mean attacking \u200chim. The governor\u2019s approach didn\u2019t need to change. (I say \u2062this as someone \u200dendlessly \u200csympathetic to the merits of DeSantis\u2019 arguments \u200don this particular\u2063 question.)<\/p>\n<p>The McIntosh\u200b memo should \u2064have been understood by \u2063DeSantis\u2019 campaign before \u2063it \u2062ever launched. Republican\u2063 voters who see Democrats relentlessly trying to put Trump in prison don\u2019t\u2063 trust GOP \u200cpoliticians who proactively attack him, often echoing the same critiques \u200cmade by the same people who pushed the Russia-collusion\u2063 hoax.<\/p>\n<p>It looks \u2064like DeSantis\u2062 will lose Iowa and New Hampshire. \u200dAs of now, \u2062at least, it looks like Nikki Haley will too. Easily.\u200d If\u200d that\u2019s the\u2063 case, it\u2019s remarkable how much money and \u2063effort \u2064was invested in\u2064 campaigns that got the\u200c biggest question wrong from the beginning, especially the one campaign that should have known better.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"> <\/p>\n<h2> What \u2062was the strategic approach suggested in the \u2062memo to lower Trump&#8217;s \u2062support among Republican primary voters?<\/h2>\n<p><span>  Of offensive and divisive rhetoric and behavior,\u201d the memo read.<\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In other words, attacking\u2064 Trump \u2063directly would not work. Instead, the strategic approach to lowering his support among Republican primary\u200d voters was to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/watch-jim-jordan-gives-ultimatum-on-the-upcoming-electoral-college-showdown-video\/\" title=\"WATCH: Jim Jordan Gives Ultimatum On The Upcoming Electoral College Showdown (VIDEO)\">raise concerns<\/a> about his ability to defeat President Biden and highlight his controversial rhetoric and behavior. This memo\u200c was written in September, months before DeSantis\u2019 \u2063slump in the polls and the rise of Nikki \u200cHaley as a viable \u200balternative to Trump.<\/p>\n<p>So, why did DeSantis\u200d not follow this advice? Why did he allow himself to be defined\u200b by his association with Trump and his \u200cfailed attempts to win over a base that is firmly in\u200d Trump\u2019s corner?<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps it\u2063 was the belief that Trump\u2019s popularity would wane,\u200b that Republican voters would be open to an \u200balternative candidate who could deliver the same populist \u200cmessage without the baggage.\u2064 Or maybe it was the pressure \u2063from Beltway pundits and the donor class, who believed that DeSantis was the best chance at taking \u200ddown Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever the reason, it is clear that DeSantis made a miscalculation. \u200dBy aligning himself so closely with Trump and focusing his campaign efforts on Iowa, he neglected to appeal to a broader base\u2062 of voters who might have been more receptive to his message. And now, as the Iowa caucus approaches, it seems unlikely that he will be able to overcome Trump\u2019s\u2062 commanding lead.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, surprises can happen in politics. The unexpected can occur, and candidates can defy the odds. But based on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/mccarthy-says-house-republicans-have-broken-a-record-and-its-a-good-sign-for-the-gop\/\" title=\"McCarthy: GOP Breaks Record, Positive Sign\">current polling numbers<\/a>\u2064 and the overwhelming support for Trump among Republican\u200c voters, it appears that DeSantis\u2019 much-anticipated \u2063political experiment will come to an end.<\/p>\n<p>As for the question of whether Trump can be defeated by a candidate with all the benefits \u2063and none of the baggage, that remains unanswered. But one thing is clear:\u200b DeSantis\u2019 approach was not the\u2064 right one.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps in the future, another candidate will emerge who can successfully navigate the challenges of \u200ca Trump-dominated\u200b GOP. Until then, we will have to wait and see\u2062 what the outcome of the \u2064Iowa caucus brings.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No one likely did it. It&#8217;s Iowa caucus morning and, as per the Des Moines Register, &#8220;Donald Trump maintains a strong lead.&#8221; Their recent poll reveals Trump&#8217;s remarkable 28-point advantage in the &#8220;coldest caucus&#8221; in years. This news should send shivers down the spine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":554,"featured_media":2149148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[546],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2149147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-federalist"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2149147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/554"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2149147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2149147\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2149148"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2149147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2149147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2149147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}