{"id":2145159,"date":"2024-01-10T07:17:07","date_gmt":"2024-01-10T12:17:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/iowa-caucuses-what-to-watch-if-haley-or-desantis-are-to-pull-off-upset-over-trump\/"},"modified":"2024-01-10T07:21:10","modified_gmt":"2024-01-10T12:21:10","slug":"iowa-caucuses-what-to-watch-if-haley-or-desantis-are-to-pull-off-upset-over-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/iowa-caucuses-what-to-watch-if-haley-or-desantis-are-to-pull-off-upset-over-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Key things to watch for in Iowa caucuses: Haley or DeSantis potentially upsetting Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">28<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fiowa-caucuses-what-to-watch-if-haley-or-desantis-are-to-pull-off-upset-over-trump%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2145159&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><h2>If Gov. \u2063Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and\u200b former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley\u200b are to thwart former \u200cPresident\u200b Donald Trump in the Jan. 15 Iowa \u2063caucuses, they\u2019ll have to win over key counties \u2064that Trump lost in his first White House run.<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Republican pollsters and political experts told the Washington Examiner \u2064that a possible pathway to\u2063 stop Trump\u200d runs\u2063 through Johnson\u200b County, home to a more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/no-chuck-todd-the-gop-isnt-extreme-for-opposing-gun-control\/\" title=\"No, Chuck Todd. The GOP Isn\u2019t \u2018Extreme\u2019 For Opposing Gun Control\">moderate wing<\/a> of the Republican Party, the \u200cDes Moines and \u200dCedar Rapids suburbs,\u200b along with the rural and evangelical\u2063 counties in northwest\u2064 and\u200c southeast Iowa.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h3>Why Haley needs to win\u2062 Johnson County more than\u200c DeSantis<\/h3>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Several political experts \u200cnoted that Johnson County is one of the most important counties to \u200cwatch\u200b on caucus night. The county\u2019s\u2063 more liberal makeup makes it a\u200b good case to see\u2063 whether \u200dDeSantis or Haley can convince Republicans who are seeking a\u2063 non-Trump\u200b candidate\u200c to\u200b back their\u200b campaigns.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThat is the most college-educated \u200bcounty in the \u200dwhole\u2064 state. It\u2019s\u200b where \u2064Iowa City is. The \u200dUniversity of Iowa is there,\u201d said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. \u201cBut other than Johnson, the \u200bonly two other counties in the state where a majority of residents are college-educated is Story and Dallas, which are\u2063 both kind of immediately\u2063 north and west of Des Moines.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>During the 2016 Iowa caucuses, Trump lost Johnson County, Story County, \u2064and Dallas \u2062County to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Cruz. They \u201cwere in Trump\u2019s \u206310 Worst counties in Iowa\u201d in 2016, according to Coleman. If DeSantis or Haley wins these \u200ccounties, it bodes well for \u2064their\u2063 campaigns\u200d next week.<\/p>\n<p>Timothy Hagle, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/watch-biden-blasted-for-huge-funds-reopening-schools\/\" title=\"WATCH: Biden Blasted For Huge Funds Reopening Schools\">political scientist<\/a> at\u2062 the University of Iowa and author of Riding the Caucus Rollercoaster 2020:\u200d The Democrats\u2019 Race to Win\u2064 the Iowa Caucuses, also\u2064 cited Johnson County, with its\u2062 high\u200d percentage \u200dof registered Democrats, \u200das \u2063an area for Trump\u2019s rivals to \u200bfocus on.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s \u200cthe only county where Democrats have \u2063an outright majority of registered voters. \u200cBut the Republicans tend to\u200c be a\u200c little\u200b more on the\u200d liberal side too,\u201d\u200d Hagle said.\u200b \u201cAnd I think that\u2019s true for Polk County \u2064as well and Story County, where Iowa\u200c State University is, Cedar Rapids with Linn County north of Johnson\u2063 County. They went for\u2063 Cruz, but Trump was actually in third. Rubio\u200b was in second place there.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Haley has \u200crun a more moderate Republican campaign than DeSantis, who has angled \u200bfor evangelical voters. Her \u2062best chances for Iowa county pickups would be in the counties Hagle and Coleman cited.<\/p>\n<p>If Haley were to win these counties,\u2062 it would make DeSantis\u2019s uphill climb to defeat Trump infinitely \u2062harder, as\u2063 Trump is sure to perform somewhat well \u2064with evangelicals, and Haley could box out DeSantis from the moderate \u2062wing of the GOP.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf I were looking at \u200ccounties, I\u2019d look at those\u2062 because those are\u200d the ones that are maybe\u200b the furthest from Trump \u2062in 2016,\u201d Hagle continued.\u2064 \u201cAnd if they go for Trump in \u20632024, Trump\u2019s going to have\u200d a really good night. Whereas if they go\u200b for DeSantis or Haley, that \u2064may be a \u2063suggestion\u2062 that\u2062 it\u2019s going to be a more\u200d competitive race than \u200bwhat some people expected.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>2. \u200bNorthwest and southeast\u200b areas of \u2064Iowa will test DeSantis\u2019s ground game<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Other experts, such as influential Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Platts, who\u200c has endorsed DeSantis along with\u2064 Gov.\u2063 Kim \u2063Reynolds (R-IA), pointed to the more heavily evangelical counties in northwest and southeast Iowa\u2062 for a sign\u200d of how the night \u2062will \u2062go.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m gonna look at Sioux County \u200cup in northwest Iowa,\u201d Vander Platts said in an interview with the Washington \u2064Examiner. \u201cI\u2019m gonna look at \u200cMarion County, which is\u2062 southeast of Des Moines.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, Hagle also cited Sioux County,\u200d Lyon County, Osceola County, and O\u2019Brien County in the northwest \u2064region of Iowa as \u2063a possible harbinger for DeSantis\u2062 and Haley.<\/p>\n<p>Trump lost all\u200d four counties \u2062to Cruz\u200c in 2016, so \u201cif\u2064 all of \u200da sudden evangelicals are \u200dcoming out to\u2062 vote\u2063 and voting not\u200d for \u200cTrump, then that might\u200d be something of interest,\u201d Hagle said.<\/p>\n<p>Trump also lost Marion County\u2063 to Cruz.<\/p>\n<p>But a\u2064 DeSantis pickup this year could show he has a \u201cvery good\u200b shot at \u200dwinning because typically Sioux County, \u200bMarion\u200b County, they probably would be\u2064 more\u2063 Trump-leaning counties, Grundy County as \u200dwell,\u201d Vander Plaats said. \u201cAnd to see if DeSantis is competing \u200bor\u2064 leading\u2062 those counties. If he is, it could be \u2064a good night for\u2063 him.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>3. Rural counties critical to DeSantis\u2019s ground game<\/h2>\n<p>John\u2064 Couvillon, a Louisiana-based\u2063 pollster and consultant, pointed to the spread of the Republican vote across Iowa\u2064 for \u200dclues as to where the Iowa caucuses could be decided.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe way I \u200dlook \u2064at\u200b the \u200bIowa caucuses is really there\u2019s two parts of\u200c it.\u200d And that is what\u2019s going to go on in \u2064the rural counties\u200d versus \u200dwhat\u2019s going to go on in the \u2062urban counties,\u201d \u200cCouvillon said. \u201cWhen I looked at Republican active voter registration \u2062as of\u200b January, half of \u200bthe registered Republicans \u2063live in\u200b 12 counties. The\u2063 other half live in the remaining 87 counties.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Couvillon described rural counties as \u200dplaces with less than \u206410,000 registered Republicans. Given Trump\u2019s lead \u2064and his selective\u200c campaign in urban\u2064 Iowa, \u200dwinning rural \u200dcounties is a must for DeSantis.<\/p>\n<p>Trump currently dominates the primary field at 52.3% support, according \u200dto a RealClearPolitics average of Iowa surveys. Haley follows Trump at 16.3%, while DeSantis closely trails behind at \u206416%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf he, DeSantis, wants to \u200dhave\u2064 any \u200bchance \u2063of being competitive in Iowa, to me, his ground\u2064 game, plus Vander Plaats\u200b plus Reynolds, they\u2062 need to make the\u2064 rural counties competitive,\u201d Couvillon continued.<\/p>\n<h2>4.\u2062 The campaigns aren\u2019t ruling out \u200dany counties<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>The Trump campaign was succinct\u2064 when responding to the Washington Examiner\u2018s\u2062 request for comment on\u200c which counties \u200cthey would be paying attention \u200dto. \u201cWe\u2019ll \u200dbe watching every single county,\u201d said spokesman Steven Cheung.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Haley\u2019s campaign pointed to her multiple visits to Iowa\u2064 as \u200da sign of\u200c her success.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNikki has held 83 events to \u200cdate\u200c and \u2064met\u2063 with Iowans in every corner \u200bof the state,\u201d said \u200cspokeswoman \u200bAnnMarie Graham-Barnes. \u201cJust this \u2063week,\u2064 she\u2019s holding \u200cevents from\u200d Waukee to Waterloo and \u2062Cedar Rapids\u200d to Council Bluffs. We\u2019re confident that her efforts will pay off across Iowa.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The DeSantis \u2063campaign\u200c did not respond to the Washington Examiner\u2019s request for comment.<\/p>\n<p>Yet DeSantis\u2062 is banking on his touring all 99 counties in Iowa plus the backing of\u2064 Reynolds and Vander Plaats to siphon \u200coff enough evangelicals to defeat Trump. Haley, meanwhile, has\u200b tried \u2063to \u200dtemper expectations of how well she \u200cperforms in Iowa \u2063and is seeking a stronger showing in New Hampshire.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou have 12 larger counties where if you want to see either DeSantis or even \u200dNikki\u2064 Haley have a\u2064 good night, they have to show some dominance in these counties,\u201d Couvillon said, also pointing to \u200bthe Des Moines and Cedar Rapids area. \u201cHow\u2062 strong or weak Trump\u2063 does\u2064 in the rural counties versus what kind of strength, \u200bif any,\u200b that \u2063Haley and\/or DeSantis can demonstrate in the larger counties, that to me would \u2062be the story of Iowa.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Samantha-Jo Roth contributed\u200b to this story.<\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<h2> \u200bHow will the performance of \u200bDeSantis in traditionally Trump-leaning \u200bcounties,\u200b such as Sioux County and Marion County, indicate his viability as a candidate \u2062in the Iowa caucuses<\/h2>\n<p><span>  In \u2063Iowa, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-the-latest-approval-numbers-dont-look-great-for-biden\/\" title=\"ANALYSIS: The Latest Approval Numbers Don\u2019t Look Great For Biden\">latest polling data<\/a> from RealClearPolitics. If \u200bDeSantis is to \u2064have a \u2064chance at defeating Trump in the Iowa caucuses,\u200c he must <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/at-least-seven-dead-amid-chaos-at-kabul-airport\/\" title=\"At Least Seven Dead Amid Chaos At Kabul Airport\">make significant gains<\/a> in these rural counties.<\/p>\n<p>In particular, experts have pointed \u200bto \u2062northwest and southeast Iowa as critical regions \u2063for DeSantis\u2019s ground\u2064 game. These areas are known for their heavily evangelical population, \u200dand Trump\u2019s loss to Cruz in these counties in 2016 suggests that\u2063 evangelical voters \u2063may be open to supporting \u200ba \u2062different candidate.<\/p>\n<p>Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Iowa evangelical leader \u2063who has \u200dendorsed DeSantis, highlighted Sioux County in \u2062northwest Iowa and Marion County in the southeast as key counties to watch. If DeSantis is \u200bable to perform well in these traditionally Trump-leaning counties, it\u2063 would be a strong \u200cindication of his \u200dviability as a\u2062 candidate.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally,\u2063 political scientist Timothy Hagle identified Sioux County,\u2064 Lyon County, Osceola County, and O\u2019Brien County in the northwest region as potential indicators of DeSantis\u2019s success. These \u2064counties, \u200dwhich\u200c Trump lost to \u200cCruz in 2016, will provide insights into\u2063 whether\u2063 evangelical voters are still aligned with Trump or if they are open to supporting DeSantis\u200c or Haley.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, \u200brural counties across Iowa will play a crucial role \u200bin determining\u200c the outcome of the \u2064caucuses. John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster\u200d and\u2063 consultant, emphasized\u2064 the significance of the divide\u200d between rural and urban counties in \u200cIowa. As half \u2063of registered Republicans in Iowa\u2064 live in 12 counties,\u200b winning over rural voters is essential for DeSantis.<\/p>\n<p>In summary, if Gov. \u2063Ron \u200cDeSantis and\u200d former U.N.\u200b Ambassador Nikki Haley are to overcome former President Donald\u2064 Trump \u2062in the\u2064 Jan. 15 Iowa \u2064\u2063caucuses, they must\u2064 focus on winning over key \u200dcounties\u200b that Trump lost in 2016. Johnson County,\u2062 with its \u200cmore moderate Republican Party \u2064wing, along with rural and evangelical counties \u200cin \u200cnorthwest and southeast Iowa,\u2064 will\u200b be critical for their success. Additionally, DeSantis \u200cmust make gains in rural counties across\u2063 the state to have\u2064 a chance at defeating Trump. Only\u200c time will tell if DeSantis and Haley can win over these crucial counties \u200band \u2064emerge as the frontrunners in the \u200dIowa caucuses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Through counties where he underperformed in the previous election. Gov. DeSantis and Ambassador Haley must secure these crucial areas to challenge Trump&#8217;s dominance in the upcoming Iowa caucuses, according to Republican pollsters and experts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2658,"featured_media":2145160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2145159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2145159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2658"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2145159"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2145159\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2145160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2145159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2145159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2145159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}