{"id":2143208,"date":"2024-01-08T10:42:02","date_gmt":"2024-01-08T15:42:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/iowa-one-week-out\/"},"modified":"2024-01-08T10:47:07","modified_gmt":"2024-01-08T15:47:07","slug":"iowa-one-week-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/iowa-one-week-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Iowa, one week away"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">8<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fiowa-one-week-out%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2143208&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><h2>IOWA, ONE WEEK \u2064OUT: The Strangest Presidential Nomination<\/h2>\n<p>The \u200bfirst votes to be\u2064 cast in \u2064the <strong>most \u200cunconventional<\/strong> presidential nomination in anyone\u2019s memory will be cast one week from\u2062 tonight\u2063 in the Iowa caucuses. The polls say former President Donald Trump will <strong>dominate<\/strong> the race, and they\u2019re\u200c probably right.\u200b In the\u200b current RealClearPolitics\u200c average of \u200bpolls, \u2062Trump has a <strong>massive<\/strong> 32.7-point lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and a 35.2-point lead over Nikki\u2062 Haley. No one else\u200b really matters. Trump\u200d has a 45.4-point lead over \u200bVivek Ramaswamy and a 47.6-point lead over Chris Christie. And remember Asa \u200cHutchinson? He\u2019s still in the race, <strong>trailing<\/strong> Trump by a staggering 50.6 percentage points.<\/p>\n<h3>One caution:\u200b The polls are old.<\/h3>\n<p>The most\u200c recent polls in the RealClearPolitics average are all pre-holiday\u200d surveys, making them now three weeks old.\u200c If there has been any shift \u200camong, say DeSantis\u200d and Haley, in the last three weeks, we don\u2019t know it yet. Look for a bunch of\u2062 new polls, including\u200d the high-profile Des Moines Register poll, to come out \u2062between now and Jan.\u2064 14.<\/p>\n<p>But you have to ask: Are today\u2019s polls gonna be\u2063 wrong\u2063 by 35 points? Could there be a 35-point event to change the race? It doesn\u2019t seem likely. There have been some\u2063 spectacular polling failures in the past, but if\u2064 the final polls from Iowa\u200b show Trump\u2019s lead remaining stable, as\u2062 it has been for quite a \u2063while, it would be\u2062 <strong>earth-shattering<\/strong> news if someone else won\u200b the Iowa caucuses.<\/p>\n<p>Trump really wants to win Iowa. He \u2063lost the caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2016, which is something\u200d he mentions to this\u200c day in conversations with Iowa Republicans. As later years showed, he does not take well to losing.<\/p>\n<p>To make sure he\u2062 wins this time, Trump has created an entirely different <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/new-mexicos-democratic-governor-just-settled-a-sexual-misconduct-case-with-a-former-aide\/\" title=\"New Mexico\u2019s Democratic Governor Just Settled A Sexual Misconduct Case With A Former Aide\">campaign organization<\/a>\u200b from 2016. Truth be told,\u200d in\u2062 2016, there wasn\u2019t\u2062 much organization\u200b at all. Trump drew big crowds but did not put together a sophisticated\u2063 turnout operation that \u2063would get those supporters to the caucuses. This time, Trump has put together \u2062what neutral observers\u200d say is a <strong>remarkably effective<\/strong> organization, down to\u200c the\u2064 precinct level. He has gotten tens of thousands of\u2064 Iowans to commit\u200c to caucusing for \u200dhim and has recruited many more to help them get to the caucuses locations.<\/p>\n<p>When asked to rank\u200d the strength of the candidates\u2019 ground games, those neutral \u2062observers say DeSantis\u2019s is probably the best, with\u2063 Trump \u2063not too far behind. Haley, they say, is not at DeSantis\u2019s and Trump\u2019s level when it comes to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/shapiro-heres-what-went-wrong-in-afghanistan-and-what-we-should-have-done-differently\/\" title=\"SHAPIRO: Here\u2019s What Went Wrong In Afghanistan \u2014 And What We Should Have Done Differently\">ground operations<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/californias-proposed-congressional-maps-could-make-reelection-tough-for-a-lot-of-incumbents\/\" title=\"California\u2019s Proposed Congressional Maps Could Make Reelection Tough For A Lot Of Incumbents\">big contrast<\/a> \u200bis between Trump\u2019s 2016 get-out-the-vote \u2064organization and his effort in 2024.\u200d There\u2019s no comparison. Put his current level of organization \u200dtogether with a 32.7-point\u2063 lead and Trump seems <strong>unbeatable<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>If that is true, then the game really will be what it has always seemed: a contest for second place. There are two elements. One, will either DeSantis or Haley rise close enough to Trump \u2064for the media to declare it an <strong>upset<\/strong> and an unexpected horse race? And two, will DeSantis defeat Haley by a\u200b clear \u200bmargin in Iowa before \u2064going on to the next\u2063 state, New Hampshire, where\u200d Haley has \u200bsurpassed DeSantis?<\/p>\n<p>Unless some unexpected reversal occurs, it appears that Trump\u2019s two big bets are going to pay off\u200d in Iowa. One, he skipped\u200b all the Republican debates and did not seem to suffer any damage with GOP voters. And two, he has run a largely arm\u2019s-length campaign in Iowa \u2014 no all-99-counties marathon for \u200chim \u2014 and maintained a big lead.<\/p>\n<p>But \u2064there\u2019s still a week to go. Let\u2019s look at the new polls \u200cand get \u200ban\u2064 updated sense\u2064 of where things stand. But the situation\u200d is likely to remain fundamentally unchanged: an <strong>unprecedented<\/strong> lopsided contest unlike none anyone has ever seen.<\/p>\n<p>For a\u200c deeper dive\u2063 into many of the \u200dtopics covered in the\u2064 Daily Memo, please listen to my podcast, The \u2063Byron York Show \u2014\u200c available on \u200cRadio America and the Ricochet Audio Network and \u200deverywhere else podcasts can be found.<\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<h2> How does the complex process and potential external factors \u2064impact \u2064the \u200doutcome of the Iowa caucuses?<\/h2>\n<p><span>  And well-organized campaign machine.<\/p>\n<p>But even with all the advantages and the massive lead\u2063 in the polls,\u2063 the Iowa caucuses can still produce surprises. The process itself is famously complex and can be swayed by factors like weather and turnout. And while Iowa is \u2062not always the best predictor of the eventual nominee, it does serve as a crucial\u200b testing ground for candidates.<\/p>\n<p>For the Democratic side, the race in Iowa is much more competitive. The RealClearPolitics average currently shows a tight three-way race between former Vice President \u2062Joe Biden, \u200cVermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. The lead has shifted back and forth \u200dbetween these three \u200bcandidates over the past few months, and \u2064it \u2064is \u200bunclear who will come out on top in the caucuses.<\/p>\n<p>One key factor to watch in Iowa is the \u200dinfluence of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Sanders and Warren, both popular with the progressive base,\u200c have consistently polled well \u200cin the state. If either of them can garner a strong showing\u200b in Iowa, it could give them momentum heading \u200cinto the later primary contests.<\/p>\n<p>But the Iowa caucuses are more than just a \u200drace for the nomination. They are also an opportunity for candidates to make their case to the American people and \u200csolidify their positions in the crowded field. It is a chance for underdog candidates to break out and for front-runners to show\u200b their strength.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, the outcome of the Iowa caucuses will shape the rest of the nomination process. A strong showing in Iowa can provide \u2064a boost of momentum and attract the \u200battention and support of donors and voters. Conversely, a poor performance can spell the end of a\u200d candidate&#8217;s campaign.<\/p>\n<p>So, as we approach the one-week mark, all eyes are on Iowa.\u200b Will Trump maintain \u2062his commanding lead and solidify his status as the front-runner? Will there be any\u200b surprises\u2062 in the Democratic race? \u2063Only time will tell, \u2063but one thing is for certain: the Iowa caucuses \u200dwill be a pivotal moment in \u200cthis unconventional and unpredictable presidential nomination.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Iowa, just one week away. The peculiar presidential nomination is about to witness its first votes. According to polls, former President Donald Trump is expected to dominate, and they&#8217;re likely accurate. Trump holds a 32.7-point lead in the current RealClearPolitics poll average<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2642,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2143208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2143208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2642"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2143208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2143208\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2143208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2143208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2143208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}