{"id":2140081,"date":"2024-01-04T05:06:01","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T10:06:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/how-to-think-about-a-two-incumbent-election\/"},"modified":"2024-01-04T05:12:10","modified_gmt":"2024-01-04T10:12:10","slug":"how-to-think-about-a-two-incumbent-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/how-to-think-about-a-two-incumbent-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Approaching a Dual-Incumbent Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">8<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fhow-to-think-about-a-two-incumbent-election%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2140081&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><blockquote>\n<h2>Column: \u200dExpect\u200d the unexpected when neither Republicans nor Democrats have an advantage<\/h2>\n<figure><figcaption>(Alex Wong\/Getty Images, Kent Nishimura\/Getty\u200b Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div>\n<p>Americans are about to \u200cface a choice between two\u200b incumbent presidents. The idea sounds oxymoronic: a political version\u200d of the Pauli Exclusion Principle in physics, whereby two particles cannot occupy the same space at once.\u200b Yet that is precisely \u2064the situation\u2014barring an act \u200dof \u2062God or the Obamas\u2014in which we will \u200csoon find \u200bourselves.<\/p>\n<p>There hasn&#8217;t been a two-incumbent election since 1892. That year, Republican president Benjamin Harrison faced\u2064 the man whom he had defeated four years earlier: Democrat Grover Cleveland.<\/p>\n<p>The 1888 election that had brought \u2062Harrison to \u200cpower was unusual. There had \u2063been a split between the Electoral College and\u2064 the popular \u200bvote, and despite his loss, \u200bCleveland earned more votes \u200cthan he&#8217;d\u200c won in victory in 1884.<\/p>\n<p>The\u2063 rematch in 1892 was a different story. By then, voters \u200chad tired of\u2064 the inflationary\u2062 effects of\u200b GOP protectionism. They returned Cleveland to office for a\u200c nonconsecutive second term.<\/p>\n<p>In\u200c 2024, Donald Trump wants to play Cleveland to President Joe Biden&#8217;s Harrison. Trump, like \u2064Cleveland, won more votes losing in 2020 than he did winning in 2016. He, like Cleveland, leads\u200d a party whose geographic base\u2064 is the South. And he, like Cleveland, has\u2063 five\u200d children. The similarities\u2014at least\u200b as I can count them\u2014end there.<\/p>\n<p>The precedent of 1892 is so distant that\u200c it hardly seems relevant. Our two-incumbent election \u2062is\u2064 a genuine novelty. It pits a \u2064twice-impeached, criminally charged Republican against a deeply unpopular Democrat who faces his own impeachment inquiry and whose adult son is under federal indictment. All set against the backdrop of collapsing public trust,\u2062 deteriorating world order,\u200b resurgent anti-Semitism, \u200dthe interpenetration \u2062of the judicial system with \u200bdomestic elections, myriad connections\u2064 between former and \u200dcurrent\u200b national\u2062 security personnel \u200cand the\u200b major media &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/05\/08\/magazine\/the-aspiring-novelist-who-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">echo chamber<\/a>,&#8221; America&#8217;s aggressive and cunning strategic adversaries, the legitimation of political violence, and a likelihood of constitutional crisis and domestic unrest. Harrison-Cleveland was placid by comparison. Even boring.<\/p>\n<p>The two incumbents in 2024 have dominated the \u2063invisible primary. Trump has run not as if he were another\u2062 run-of-the-mill contestant, but as if\u200d he currently\u2062 held\u2062 office and could \u2064claim\u2063 the Republican nomination by \u200bright. None of his\u200d rivals have come close to his leads in either state or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-great-politically-for-republicans-to-talk-arizona-election-audit\/\" title=\"Trump: 'Great Politically' for Republicans to Talk Arizona Election Audit\">national polls<\/a>. His risky decision not to appear on the debate stage looks,\u200d in retrospect, like a political masterstroke. Above all, Trump&#8217;s legal\u200b troubles caused Republicans\u2064 to rally to his side. The charges confirmed, in the eyes\u200b of his supporters, that the \u2062system is rigged against them. The GOP \u2062primary could be over in three weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Nor does Biden face a serious primary threat. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. decided to run\u200c as an independent, leaving Biden with massive leads over author Marianne Williamson,\u200c who garners <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/democratic-primary\/2024\/national\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">8 percent in national polls<\/a>, and congressman Dean \u200bPhillips (Minn.), who is at 3 percent. Phillips, \u2063who is earnest\u200d and likable, says he \u200dis running \u200dbecause Joe Biden cannot win a general election.<\/p>\n<p>And Phillips may be right. If\u200d this\u200b were a one<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/christie-due-to-unprecedented-factor-in-primary-predictions-at-this-point-just-shooting-in-the-dark\/\" title=\"Christie: Predictions in primary are uncertain due to unprecedented factors\">-incumbent race<\/a> that\u200d pitted Biden against a fresh Republican,\u2064 Biden would be on his way to a landslide \u2063defeat. He begins 2024 with the lowest approval\u200d ratings of <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/547763\/biden-ends-2023-job-approval.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">any <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-makes-history-first-president-in-40-years-to-punt-on-contacting-israel\/\" title=\"Biden Makes History: First President in 40 Years to Punt on Contacting Israel\">modern president<\/a><\/a>. Voters say that\u200d he is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/11\/05\/upshot\/polls-biden-trump-2024.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">too\u200c old for the job<\/a>, that things are &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/3711555-79-percent-of-voters-describe-the-us-as-out-of-control\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">out \u2063of control<\/a>,&#8221; and that he \u200dhas <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/politics\/elections\/joe-biden-poll-donald-trump-73cfa7d9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">made their lives worse<\/a>.\u2063 The Biden campaign has spent\u2062 tens of millions\u2064 of \u200cdollars in\u2064 television \u200dadvertising \u200cacross swing states to\u2063 counter these negative attitudes. The\u200b ads have had no effect. On the contrary: Biden&#8217;s position has worsened. Core Democratic constituencies\u2014Hispanic voters, black voters, and 18- to 35-year-old voters\u2014have turned against him.<\/p>\n<p>Yet Biden has a chance. The Democratic coalition may be fracturing, but its\u200b pieces are not joining the GOP. Instead, disaffected Democrats are saying that they will \u2062stay home or that they will support RFK Jr. or Cornel West\u2014if \u2063either man makes it onto state \u2064ballots.<\/p>\n<p>Normally, a\u2063 splintered electorate and a collapse in enthusiasm for the incumbent benefits the challenger. Not when the challenger \u2062is another incumbent.\u2063 Not when that other incumbent is Donald Trump. The former\u200b president may be ahead, but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">his lead is narrow \u200cand within the margin of error<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Pollster Bill McInturff found\u200b that, unlike\u2062 recent presidential contests, 2024 will be \u200dmore about \u2062the challenger than the incumbent. In 2004, 61 percent of voters said \u200ctheir votes were more about George W. Bush than John\u2064 Kerry. In 2012, 66 percent said their votes were more about Barack Obama than Mitt Romney. The 2020 \u200celection was more\u200c about Trump than about Biden,\u200c who \u200cwas in his\u200d basement. And yet\u2062 57 percent of voters say \u200btheir\u2062 vote in 2024 will be more\u2063 about Trump than \u200babout President Biden.<\/p>\n<p>That is \u2064why Biden plans \u200bto campaign on the anniversary of January 6 at Valley Forge, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/03\/us\/politics\/biden-campaign-trump.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">where he will deliver a speech attacking Trump as a threat to democracy<\/a>. That is \u2064why \u2063Biden and Democrats plan to campaign \u2063just as they have in every election since 2016: portraying Trump and the MAGA movement as extremists bent on depriving the electorate of benefits,\u200d from guaranteed health insurance to abortion rights. It&#8217;s worked before\u2014in 2018, 2020, \u200band 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Will it work again? Don&#8217;t look at me. I&#8217;m buying gold \u200band MREs.\u2062 Because in a two-incumbent \u2063election, nothing is guaranteed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<h2>How does COVID-19 affect inflation?<\/h2>\n<p><span>Inflation typically increases coming \u200bout of downturns\u2064 as demand outpaces supply early \u2064in the recovery, but this tendency has been exacerbated by COVID-19 impacts. Demand for\u200c many goods dropped in 2020 and remained lower into 2021 as further waves of \u2064COVID cases\u2063 led to\u2062 government restrictions on consumer behavior.\u200d Year-olds\u2014are \u2062abandoning him in droves. \u2063His poor handling of the economy, \u200binflation, and the COVID-19 pandemic have eroded his support\u200c even further.<\/p>\n<p>However, the dynamics of a two-incumbent race dramatically alter the\u2062 landscape. Even if Republicans and Democrats\u200b are dissatisfied with their respective candidates, they may be reluctant to switch sides and \u2063risk a victory for their opponents. This phenomenon, known as party loyalty, is a powerful force in American politics. \u200bIt often leads voters to support \u200ca candidate simply\u200d because they belong to\u200d the same \u200cparty, regardless of their individual merits.<\/p>\n<p>In\u200b addition,\u200c the unpredictability of a two-incumbent race creates a sense of uncertainty. With neither candidate having a clear advantage, voters may be more \u2063inclined \u2062to stick with the status quo rather\u200b than take a chance on the unknown. This could provide Biden with a lifeline, as voters may ultimately decide that it&#8217;s better to stick with the devil they \u200bknow rather than risk the devil they don&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, \u200bboth Trump and \u200cBiden have proven themselves to be skilled campaigners. They have survived the rigors \u200cof previous elections and navigated the turbulent waters of American politics. Their experience and ability to connect with voters cannot be underestimated. They know how to rally their base, mobilize supporters, and win over swing voters.<\/p>\n<p>In conclusion, the upcoming two-incumbent election presents a unique set of circumstances.\u2062 It is a\u2063 departure from the norm and has \u200dthe potential \u2062to surprise even the most seasoned political \u2062analysts. Party loyalty, uncertainty, and the campaign skills of Trump and Biden all come into play. As voters, we must expect the unexpected and\u200b be prepared for a race that \u2063defies conventional wisdom. Only time \u2064will\u2063 tell who will \u2063emerge victorious, but one thing is\u2064 certain: this\u200c election\u200d will be anything but boring.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is exactly what could happen in the upcoming US election. With no clear advantage for either party, Americans must prepare for the unexpected as they navigate this unique political landscape<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":222,"featured_media":2140082,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[544],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2140081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-free-beacon"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2140081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/222"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2140081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2140081\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2140082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2140081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2140081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2140081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}