{"id":2137573,"date":"2024-01-01T07:37:01","date_gmt":"2024-01-01T12:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/twelve-days-of-wex-mas-economy-is-2024-going-to-be-the-year-of-the-recession\/"},"modified":"2024-01-01T07:39:59","modified_gmt":"2024-01-01T12:39:59","slug":"twelve-days-of-wex-mas-economy-is-2024-going-to-be-the-year-of-the-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/twelve-days-of-wex-mas-economy-is-2024-going-to-be-the-year-of-the-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"2024: The Year of Recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">10<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftwelve-days-of-wex-mas-economy-is-2024-going-to-be-the-year-of-the-recession%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2137573&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><h2>12 Issues that\u2062 Will Shape 2024 \u2062and Beyond<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<h3>Part 8: The Possibility \u2062of a Recession in 2024<\/h3>\n<p>In the spirit \u200dof the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 issues\u200c we believe\u200d will shape 2024 \u2014 and beyond. These close-up \u2062examinations of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/twelve-days-of-wex-mas-whats-at-stake-for-the-supreme-court-in-2024\/\" title=\"Supreme Court's 2024: What's at stake?\">agenda-setting issues cover<\/a>\u2064 everything from the \u2063ongoing battle between the Biden family&#8217;s business deals and Republican \u2062Oversight, the emergence of a \u201cnew world order,\u201d and fights over redistricting and new \u200celection maps. Part eight is about whether there \u200cmight be a recession in 2024, a critical election year.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The United \u2063States avoided a recession in 2023, but the \u200beconomy is still not out of \u200cthe woods \u2062heading into a 2024 filled \u2064with uncertainties.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal \u2063Reserve has raised interest rates to highs not\u2064 seen since before the Great Recession. The Fed\u2019s current rate target is\u200d 5.25%\u2064 to 5.50%, a\u200d level designed to tamp down demand and thus inflation. Historically, though, rate-hiking cycles raise \u2064the risk of an economic downturn.<\/p>\n<h3>Recession Predictions and Economic Growth<\/h3>\n<p>As the calendar \u200cflipped from \u20622022 to 2023, a large number of economists predicted that the U.S. would already\u200d be in the throes of a recession by now, but economic growth has instead continued\u200d at a \u2062robust clip.<\/p>\n<p>As a rule\u200c of thumb, recessions are typically, though not always, marked by two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic \u2064product growth.<\/p>\n<p>Gross domestic product expanded at \u2062a 4.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/holiday-spending-expected-to-hit-record-highs-despite-inflation-and-high-interest-rates\/\" title=\"Despite inflation and high interest rates, holiday spending is projected to reach record levels.\">9% seasonally adjusted annual rate<\/a> in the third quarter of 2023 \u2014 the strongest growth since \u200dthe country\u2019s pandemic rebound. GDP growth was 2.1% in\u2063 the second\u200d quarter and 2.2% in the first quarter of last year. The Atlanta Fed&#8217;s \u201cGDP Now\u201d tracker \u200cpredicts that GDP \u2062growth in the final quarter will \u200bbe 2.3%.<\/p>\n<p>But there is still much uncertainty \u200bfor what \u200dlies ahead in \u20622024.<\/p>\n<p>While the Fed has raised interest rates to \u200bhigh levels, it\u200d takes time for\u200c those rate hikes to filter through to the\u200b general economy. The majority of economists predict that some of that downward pressure will dampen economic\u2064 growth heading into the new year\u200b and\u200d could even be enough to tip the U.S. into a recession, although most of those forecasting a recession expect it to be a mild one.<\/p>\n<p>In a recent\u200b report, Wells Fargo economists point out that the Leading Economic Index, \u2062tracked in concert with the Conference Board, has declined for 20\u2062 consecutive months \u2014 a pattern that would indicate that a recession is imminent.<\/p>\n<p>The economists \u2062note that the \u201chistorically reliable\u201d indicator has been flashing a recession warning\u200d for some time.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYet despite the persistent warning \u200csigns from the LEI, economic growth has continued to \u200dstrengthen,\u201d\u200c the report reads. \u201cThe \u2063question as \u2062we\u200c turn to 2024 is will this period be classified \u2063as one in which the LEI cried wolf, or will we look back and cheer its steadfast signal at \u2064a time when broader economic conditions showed resiliency?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Of note, the Fed is \u200blikely\u2062 to begin cutting rates next\u2062 year as \u2064inflation continues to meaningfully fall. Central bank officials are penciling in three rate cuts in 2024, although investors expect double the number of cuts.<\/p>\n<p>Investors\u2064 now\u2062 see \u200ba nearly \u206483% probability that the Fed will cut rates in or before March, according to the CME Group\u2019s FedWatch tool, which calculates the probability using futures contract \u200dprices for rates in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/powell-set-to-testify-before-congress-heres-what-to-expect\/\" title=\"Powell set to testify before Congress \u2014 here's what to expect\">short-term market targeted<\/a>\u200c by the Fed.<\/p>\n<p>Investors are also pegging near-certain odds that the Fed will trim at \u200cleast a full percentage point off of its target rate, with a high probability of even deeper cuts.<\/p>\n<p>More rate cuts would bode well for the markets, although, perhaps the biggest uncertainty is whether inflation, which has\u2064 been trending\u2062 down, unexpectedly rises\u200b again, forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. That would not bode well for\u2063 a soft landing.<\/p>\n<p>Rodney\u2064 Lake, vice dean \u2063for undergraduate programs \u200cat George Washington\u200b University and director of the university\u2019s \u200bInvestment\u200d Institute, told the Washington \u200cExaminer that he is in the\u2064 soft-landing camp.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI \u2062think there is \u2064likely to\u2063 be a very soft landing and\u200b potential mild recession,\u200c but all economic indicators look very positive as far as unemployment, inflation easing, and companies\u2019 overall \u2063fundamentals looking good,\u201d Lake said.<\/p>\n<p>And the labor \u2064market has \u200dremained strong despite the rate hikes, which began in earnest back in March 2022. The economy broke expectations again in November and added nearly 200,000 jobs. \u2063The unemployment rate also dropped slightly to 3.7%,\u2064 right around\u2064 where it was \u2063in \u2062the months before the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>A recession, meaning \u200ba downturn in output that also drives up unemployment, would be a major problem for President Joe Biden&#8217;s reelection\u200c efforts.<\/p>\n<p>Biden has been \u2062getting very\u200c low marks on his handling of the economy, likely\u2064 due in big part to the inflationary scourge that has torn through the country. While inflation \u200dhas\u200c moderated, people are still paying much\u2063 more for goods than they were when\u2064 he took office.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation\u200b has overshadowed the strong \u200bjob \u200cmarket, but if there is a\u200d recession and people start ending up out \u200cof work, it would only increase\u200d the magnitude of voters\u2019\u2063 anger\u200d over how \u200cthe administration is handling the economy. The Republican nominee for \u200dpresident would invariably use a recession\u200b as\u2064 a cudgel\u200b to attack Biden as the year inches closer to Election Day.<\/p>\n<p>Still, as\u200b inflation keeps falling and with the expectation of interest\u200b rate cuts, more and more economists \u200dare expressing optimism that a recession can be avoided.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHigh interest rates will remain \u200ca drag on consumer\u2063 spending \u2062growth in the near \u200dterm,\u2063 although that\u2063 drag has lessened somewhat\u200c as\u200c long-term\u2063 rates have \u2062moved lower toward the end of 2023,\u201d PNC chief economist Gus Faucher said. \u201cAnother constraint on spending growth will be the need for households to increase their saving. But overall, it looks like the U.S. economy is moving toward slower \u200bgrowth, but\u2062 no recession, in 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/twelve-days-of-wex-mas-democrats-rebranding-candidates-as-tough-on-crime-ahead-of-2024-race\">CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER<\/a><\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<h2> How does Lake believe the \u2064Federal Reserve will navigate the delicate\u200b balancing act of managing inflation and\u200b steering the economy towards sustainable growth?<\/h2>\n<p><span>  Ink\u200dooking strong,\u201d\u200c \u200che said.<\/p>\n<p>Lake\u200d \u200cbelieves that the Fed will be able \u200cto navigate the delicate balancing act\u200c of managing\u2062 inflation and steering the \u2062economy towards a period of sustainable growth.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Fed is very data-dependent and will adjust as needed to prevent any kind of \u2064too sharp slowdown and any kind of spike in inflation,\u201d\u200c he explained.<\/p>\n<p>However, not all \u200cexperts share Lake\u2019s optimism. Some argue that the\u200d Fed\u2019s rate hikes\u200b and potential recession could have broader \u200dimplications for the U.S. economy and global markets.<\/p>\n<p>David Rosenberg, chief economist at Rosenberg \u200cResearch, told CNBC that he \u2063believes the U.S. is already in a recession and the Fed\u2019s\u200b rate hikes are exacerbating the problem.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re in a recession already. I think you\u2019re\u2062 going \u2062to look back and realize that this\u200c economy peaked\u201d\u200c\u2064 in 2023, Rosenberg said. He also warned that\u200d the Fed\u2019s rate hikes could lead to a \u201ccredit event\u201d\u200c and trigger a significant market correction.<\/p>\n<p>As the U.S. heads \u200cinto the \u200dcritical election year of 2024, the\u200c possibility of a recession looms large. The outcome\u2064 will\u200c have significant implications for \u2064the candidates,\u2062 voters, and the overall state \u200dof the economy. Will the economy experience a mild \u2062recession or a\u200b more severe downturn? Can the \u200cFed\u2019s monetary\u200d policy effectively manage the risks? These questions will shape the economic and political landscape in the coming years.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, only time will \u2062tell how the situation unfolds. As economists, policymakers, and investors closely watch for signs of a potential recession, the U.S. will need to\u2063 navigate the uncertainties \u200band\u200b challenges that lie ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Part 9 of this series will delve into the impact of emerging technologies on the economy and society as we look \u2063towards 2024 and beyond.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the holiday spirit, the Washington Examiner highlights 12 influential issues that will shape 2024 and beyond. These in-depth analyses cover the ongoing clash between the Biden family&#8217;s business ventures and Republican Oversight, the rise of a &#8220;new world order,&#8221; and conflicts surrounding redistricting and fresh policies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2137574,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2137573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2137573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2137573"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2137573\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2137574"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2137573"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2137573"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2137573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}