{"id":2077451,"date":"2023-10-24T06:46:02","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T10:46:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polls-show-trump-beating-biden-in-battleground-states-even-amid-numerous-indictments\/"},"modified":"2023-10-24T06:52:55","modified_gmt":"2023-10-24T10:52:55","slug":"polls-show-trump-beating-biden-in-battleground-states-even-amid-numerous-indictments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polls-show-trump-beating-biden-in-battleground-states-even-amid-numerous-indictments\/","title":{"rendered":"Despite facing numerous indictments, recent polls indicate that Trump is leading Biden in battleground states."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpolls-show-trump-beating-biden-in-battleground-states-even-amid-numerous-indictments%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2077451&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div class=\"article-content\">\n<h2>Trump Ahead \u200bin Electoral Votes\u2062 for 2024 Presidential Race<\/h2>\n<p>Looking to the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump is ahead where it counts:\u200d in electoral \u2064votes. While national polls show a dead heat,\u2062 they do not tell the \u200cwhole story. If the battleground states break\u200d the \u200dway <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/abrams-rakes-in-out-of-state-cash-for-georgia-gubernatorial-bid\/\" title=\"Abrams Rakes In Out-of-State Cash for Georgia Gubernatorial Bid\">current polling shows<\/a>, Trump has\u200c the \u2063chance to break his\u200d electoral \u200cvote margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. And all this could occur regardless of how\u200c the\u200b popular vote plays out next November and despite the numerous, well-publicized criminal and\u200b civil indictments against him.<\/p>\n<p>On Oct. 19, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-19\/trump-leads-biden-in-key-us-states-as-voters-worry-about-economy-poll?leadSource=uverify%20wall\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bloomberg-Morning Consult<\/a> released a \u200cseries of\u200b polls in seven battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin). Although\u200d his lead\u200b is \u2064within the \u200cpolls\u2019 margins of error, Trump leads in five\u200c of \u2063the seven states.\u2062 In the other \u200btwo, he is tied in Michigan and trails by just 3 percentage points in Nevada. To put this into \u20642024 context: Trump lost six of these states in 2020, \u200bwinning only North Carolina.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2-long d-flex justify-content-center\" style=\"margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; \" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-989975200\">\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-1379703300879-0\" class=\"mb-30\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-e566f3ecdfcefef974270c7ec23ff915 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-e566f3ecdfcefef974270c7ec23ff915\"><\/div>\n<p>While Bloomberg-Morning Consult did not \u200brelease a \u200cnational poll, RealClearPolitics\u2019 \u200d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2024\/president\/us\/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Oct. 19<\/a> average of national polling showed Biden\u200b and \u2062Trump tied at 43.9 percent apiece.<\/p>\n<p>When \u2063is a tie a loss in presidential elections?\u200c When it occurs \u200cin the popular\u200c vote \u2014\u200d but <em>not<\/em> in the Electoral College vote. That is because\u200b the electoral vote determines the\u200c winner; the\u200d popular\u200d vote is just for show.<\/p>\n<p>Think it cannot happen? It already did <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/elections\/2016\/results\/president\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">in 2016<\/a>.\u2062 Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton\u200c by 2.1 percentage \u200dpoints (45.9 percent to 48 percent), but he beat her 306 to 232 where it counted.<\/p>\n<p>Think\u200d it \u2063cannot happen \u200bagain? If Bloomberg-Morning\u2063 Consult\u2019s \u200dnumbers\u2062 are accurate, it\u200c is well on its way. Of the seven\u200b battleground states they just polled, Trump won all \u200dbut Nevada in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/elections\/2016\/results\/president\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2016<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-2ff0c9078141999dff36c779b351d518 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-6\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-2ff0c9078141999dff36c779b351d518\"><\/div>\n<p>Starting from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/election\/2020\/results\/president\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2020 electoral\u2064 vote\u2062 outcome<\/a> that Trump\u200d lost to\u200c Biden 232-306, here is a \u2063breakdown of\u2062 the 2024 electoral college math and what the seven battleground \u200dstate polls tell us.<\/p>\n<p>Trump automatically\u2062 picks\u2064 up\u2064 three electoral votes from\u2064 his \u200d2020 total due to reapportionment \u2064from the\u2062 last census. So, just holding his 2020 states, Trump now trails 235-306.<\/p>\n<p>Next \u2062add in the states he lost in 2020 (Arizona, \u2064Georgia, Pennslyvania, and\u2064 Wisconsin) where Bloomberg-Morning \u2062Consult\u2019s\u200c polls show \u2064him\u200b currently leading. Together, they account for 56 electoral votes. Add those 56 electoral votes to the Trump column and subtract them from the Biden\u200c column, and\u2063 you get Trump\u200c winning 291-247 \u2014 even if\u2062 he wound up losing\u200c Michigan \u200d(where he is tied) and Nevada (where \u2063he\u200d trails \u200cby 3 percentage\u200d points).<\/p>\n<p>Because the magic \u2064number \u200bof electoral votes needed to win the White\u200d House \u200bis just 270, Trump would \u200bnot need to win all four of the\u200d battleground states\u2063 where he now leads. Trump could get to 270 by just winning Pennsylvania and Georgia. Under any scenario, he could break 270 by winning just three of the\u2063 four \u2014 again\u2062 assuming he still loses Michigan and Nevada.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-97506f028309e9f2a26cd88f7e26b95b fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-10\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-97506f028309e9f2a26cd88f7e26b95b\"><\/div>\n<p>What do 2016 and 2020 tell us? Democrats need to win by more than 2.1 \u200bpercent (with which Clinton lost) and up to 4.4 percent \u200d(with which Biden won). Take the midpoint, and \u2063you get 3.25 as\u2062 a rough minimum of popular vote cushion that a Democrat \u2062running against Trump needs to\u2063 win the electoral vote.<\/p>\n<p>Of\u2064 course, this is just a rough assumption. Remember \u2064that Biden\u2019s 4 percentage point margin still only \u200camounted to squeaker 2020 wins in six of those seven battleground\u200c states \u2063which proved \u200dpivotal in his victory.<\/p>\n<p>The bottom line is that \u200cBiden needs\u200d a big \u2063popular vote cushion to be \u200bcompetitive with Trump in the electoral \u2062vote. Effectively, despite being tied with Trump in the popular vote now, Biden is\u200b well below the \u200ccushion he needs to win the White House.<\/p>\n<p>So where does Biden\u2019s needed boost in the polls come from?<\/p>\n<p>Foreign policy? It is\u2062 hard to see his record\u2064 improving so dramatically that it helps \u2062him \u200cin his domestic poll numbers.<\/p>\n<p>The economy? The economy has had only mediocre real growth for\u2063 most of \u200bhis presidency, while \u200dinflation has raged.<\/p>\n<p>The\u200b border crisis? This is \u2062a crisis\u2062 of his own making, so fixing the mess \u2014 which his recently announced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcdfw.com\/news\/local\/texas-news\/biden-defends-decision-to-use-trump-era-funds-for-20-miles-of-border-wall-in-south-texas\/3354319\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">20 miles of new wall<\/a> \u200dwill hardly do \u2014 he made hardly equates to a victory.<\/p>\n<p>America\u2019s \u2063urban \u200cchaos? It is hard to imagine this getting better \u2064without <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polls-show-trump-beating-biden-in-battleground-states-even-amid-numerous-indictments\/\" title=\"Despite facing numerous indictments, recent polls indicate that Trump is leading Biden in battleground states.\">tough policing reforms \u2014 reforms<\/a> that Biden\u2019s\u2063 left flank \u200bopposes.\u2063 So, do not expect a change here because Biden desperately\u2062 needs his left in\u2062 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, Trump could make his own mistakes that will help Biden. Yet\u2063 the converse also holds: Biden is more\u2062 than\u200c capable of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/people-like-you-find-power-in-fear-black-woman-slams-alyssa-milano-says-she-condescends-to-black-men\/\" title=\"\u2018People Like You Find Power In Fear\u2019: Black Woman Slams Alyssa Milano, Says She Condescends To Black Men\">making things worse<\/a>\u2062 for himself\u200b over the next year.<\/p>\n<p>Biden is now behind where it counts.\u2064 He needs to run well ahead in the popular vote to erase his Electoral College \u200cvote deficit. Yet none of the major issues \u200blikely to influence\u200d voters\u200d look\u2063 likely to significantly improve for\u2062 him over the next year. If they\u200d do not,\u200c Biden could find himself losing Michigan and Nevada as well.\u2064 If so, Trump would win \u206321\u2063 more\u2062 electoral votes and finish with 321: nine\u200b more than \u200dhis \u2064victory over Clinton in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>To drive\u2062 home the point of\u2063 Biden\u2019s uphill \u2062struggle, consider that Trump\u2019s \u200bleads have come while facing well-publicized \u200blegal issues. He is facing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/interactives\/2023\/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">four \u2064separate indictments<\/a> \u200d in\u200d four states (New\u200d York, Florida, \u200dD.C., and Georgia) and\u2063 <a href=\"https:\/\/whyy.org\/articles\/trump-indicted-third-time-where-cases-stand\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">91 felony counts<\/a>. While most are focusing on when trials will \u200bbegin (the first is currently scheduled to \u200dbegin March 4, 2024, in Washington, D.C., on election interference\u2063 charges), the\u200b more pertinent dates for current\u2062 polling are when the charges \u200cwere brought.<\/p>\n<p>The \u200cfirst \u2063indictment occurred in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-indictments-details-guide-charges-trial-dates-people-case\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">New York<\/a> \u2063on March 30, 2023; the latest \u200coccurred in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-indictments-details-guide-charges-trial-dates-people-case\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Georgia<\/a> on Aug. 23,\u200c 2023. That means charges have hung \u200cover Trump \u2063for seven\u200b months, and \u2063all four indictments\u2064 have for over two months. All have received \u200cmassive media coverage, yet Trump \u2064is still leading in five of the seven battleground states. Rather than weakening Trump, Democrat \u2063prosecutors and media persecutors may instead have \u2064inoculated him.\u2064 If so, Biden\u2019s\u2064 climb will be even steeper still.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\">\n<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<h2> How does the potential outcome of the 2024 elections reinforce the notion that the popular vote does not\u2063 always align with the electoral vote<\/h2>\n<p><span>  According to recent polls, former President Donald Trump is leading the electoral votes for the 2024 presidential race. While national polls \u2064suggest a close race, they do not\u2064 provide the full picture. If the current\u2064 polling accurately reflects the outcome\u200d in \u200bbattleground states, Trump has the potential to surpass his margin \u200cof \u2064victory\u200c over Hillary\u2063 Clinton in the 2016 elections. This could happen irrespective of the popular vote and despite the various criminal and civil charges against him.<\/p>\n<p>On \u200bOctober 19, Bloomberg-Morning Consult released a series of polls in seven battleground states, namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.\u2063 Although Trump&#8217;s lead falls within the margin of error in these\u200d polls, he is leading in five out of the seven states. In Michigan, the race is tied, and he trails by only 3 percentage points in Nevada. In the context of the 2024 elections, it is noteworthy that Trump lost six of these \u200dstates in the \u200d2020 elections, claiming victory only \u2062in North Carolina.<\/p>\n<p>While Bloomberg-Morning Consult did not release a national poll, RealClearPolitics&#8217; October 19 average of national polling indicates a tie between Biden and Trump, \u2064with both candidates receiving 43.9 percent \u200dof the vote.<\/p>\n<p>The significance of a tie in presidential elections lies in its \u200cimpact on the popular vote but not the Electoral College vote. The electoral vote determines the winner, making the\u200c popular vote more of a \u200csymbolic representation.<\/p>\n<p>This scenario has already played out in\u200d the 2016 elections. Despite losing the popular vote to Hillary\u200c Clinton by 2.1 percentage points (45.9 percent to\u200b 48 percent), Trump secured victory\u2063 with 306 electoral votes compared to Clinton&#8217;s 232.<\/p>\n<p>If the numbers from Bloomberg-Morning Consult \u2062are accurate, a similar outcome could be repeated in the 2024 elections. In the recently polled battleground states, Trump emerged as the victor in all except\u2063 Nevada in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>These developments highlight the potential for\u200d Trump to secure the necessary electoral votes for a victory in the 2024 presidential race. It emphasizes the \u2064significance of battleground states in\u200c determining the outcome \u200dand reinforces the\u200d notion that the popular vote does not always align with the electoral vote.<\/p>\n<p>While it&#8217;s uncertain how the race will ultimately unfold, these <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/at-least-ten-killed-in-mass-stabbing-in-canada\/\" title=\"At Least Ten Killed in Mass Stabbing in Canada\">early indications suggest<\/a> that Trump remains a formidable force in American politics, with a strong chance of overcoming the challenges he faces to secure the electoral votes necessary for a\u2063 victory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the upcoming 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump leads in electoral votes, which is crucial. National polls may indicate a tie, but they don&#8217;t reveal the complete picture. If the battleground states align with current polling, Trump could surpass his previous electoral vote victory against Hillary Clinton.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2425,"featured_media":2077452,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[546],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2077451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-federalist"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2077451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2425"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2077451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2077451\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2077452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2077451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2077451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2077451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}