{"id":2068611,"date":"2023-10-16T09:59:04","date_gmt":"2023-10-16T13:59:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-markets-are-underpricing-the-risks-of-1914\/"},"modified":"2023-10-16T10:01:54","modified_gmt":"2023-10-16T14:01:54","slug":"the-markets-are-underpricing-the-risks-of-1914","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-markets-are-underpricing-the-risks-of-1914\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets underestimate 1914 risks."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">8<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fthe-markets-are-underpricing-the-risks-of-1914%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2068611&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><blockquote>\n<h2>Commentary<\/h2>\n<p>In the summer of 1914, none of the great powers\u2062 realized that they were\u2063 sleepwalking toward disaster. A singular regional event\u2014the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand \u2063of Austria by a\u2064 radicalized Serbian nationalist\u2014would prove to be the\u2062 proverbial spark that set the whole \u200dEuropean house\u200d aflame\u2063 through a daisy chain of national actions and reactions. Each country took steps\u2063 in its own perceived self-interest that \u200dit thought were rational, reasonable, and proportionate. Armies were mobilized, treaties were\u2064 honored. Within \u2062a year, the continent was engulfed in an armed\u2063 conflict then unseen in the history of \u200cman. The long Great\u2064 War and the resulting\u200d devastation \u2064of Europe was inconceivable to Europe\u2019s leaders, as none understood the interconnectedness of \u200ctheir\u200c actions with those of others,\u2062 nor did they appreciate the implications of the \u2062technical advances of\u200d the age.<\/p>\n<p>We are in a similar moment of great risk. Hamas\u2019s surprise \u2063terrorist attack on Israel\u200b brings the expectation of a certain and devastating response. Whether proportional or not, such a response will inevitably invite further reprisals \u200band the potential \u200cwidening of the \u2063war\u200b to involve\u2064 not only regional players such as Lebanon and\u200d Syria but also the great powers aligned with them, whether the \u200cUnited States, Iran, or others. We \u200care quickly ratcheting up the escalation\u200b ladder and are in grave danger.<\/p>\n<div class=\"shortcode\">\n    <!--$--><\/p>\n<div class=\"border-comp-divider mb-4 mr-4 w-full max-w-[500px] border px-5 py-4 text-[16px] leading-[20px] text-[#262626] md:float-left\" id=\"in_article_related_stories\">\n<h2 class=\"mb-3 font-sans text-[16px] font-semibold uppercase leading-[19px] text-[#2F2F2F]\">Related Stories<\/h2>\n<div class=\"mb-4 flex gap-2\">\n<div class=\"grow\">\n<div class=\"mb-1 line-clamp-2\">\n            <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/article\/stock-market-today-world-shares-mostly-fall-oil-prices-mixed-as-investors-brace-for-gaza-invasion-5510727?ea_src=author_manual&#038;ea_med=related_stories\"><\/p>\n<h3>Stock Market Today: World\u200b Shares Mostly\u200c Fall, Oil Prices Mixed as Investors \u2064Brace for Gaza Invasion<\/h3>\n<p>            <\/a>\n          <\/div>\n<div class=\"text-comp-caption text-[14px] leading-[18px]\">10\/16\/2023<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"shrink-0 basis-[120px]\">\n          <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/article\/stock-market-today-world-shares-mostly-fall-oil-prices-mixed-as-investors-brace-for-gaza-invasion-5510727?ea_src=author_manual&#038;ea_med=related_stories\"><\/a>\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"mb-4 flex gap-2\">\n<div class=\"grow\">\n<div class=\"mb-1 line-clamp-2\">\n            <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/article\/stock-market-today-wall-street-struggles-as-war-worries-collide-with-hope-for-stronger-profits-5509868?ea_src=author_manual&#038;ea_med=related_stories\"><\/p>\n<h3>Stock Market Today: Wall \u2063Street Struggles as War Worries Collide With Hope for Stronger Profits<\/h3>\n<p>            <\/a>\n          <\/div>\n<div class=\"text-comp-caption text-[14px] leading-[18px]\">10\/13\/2023<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"shrink-0 basis-[120px]\">\n          <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/article\/stock-market-today-wall-street-struggles-as-war-worries-collide-with-hope-for-stronger-profits-5509868?ea_src=author_manual&#038;ea_med=related_stories\"><\/a>\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>    <!--\/$-->\n  <\/div>\n<p>Iran, long seeking as a matter of official policy the complete\u2063 annihilation of the \u201cZionist\u2063 entity\u201d\u2014i.e., the state of Israel\u2014has acted to destabilize the normalization of diplomatic and commercial relationships between Israel \u200dand its more moderate Muslim \u2064neighbors, including the \u2062United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, and Saudi\u200d Arabia. Iran has been\u200d the primary financial and logistical sponsor of \u200dHamas \u200cand Hezbollah. With \u200cthe Biden administration\u2019s relaxing of Trump-era\u2064 U.S. sanctions on oil exports, the radical Islamicist government in Iran is now flush \u200bwith cash and armaments, and is posturing for war. Specifically, Iran \u2063has threatened to intervene\u200c should Israeli\u2063 military\u2062 forces enter Gaza, a step which now seems inevitable.<\/p>\n<p>The Syrian army has mobilized\u200d following Israel\u2019s bombardment of airports in Damascus\u200d and Allepo.\u200c Rockets have crossed into Israeli territory from both Lebanon and Syria. Qatar \u200dhas refused to eject Hamas leadership and welcomed the Iranian foreign minister \u2063to meet with them there.\u200b The United States is \u2063moving\u200c not just one but \u2064two <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/will-biden-abandon-taiwan\/\" title=\"Will Biden Abandon Taiwan?\">carrier strike groups<\/a> into the Eastern Mediterranean. Even if this is just posturing, the\u200c probabilities of a conflict event with U.S. forces\u2014whether accidental or intentional\u2014has increased meaningfully.<\/p>\n<p>The \u2062markets are ignoring all of this. In the week following the terrorist attacks on Israel, the\u200d stock\u200d and bond \u200bmarkets essentially\u2064 shrugged their shoulders. Traditional risk-off assets \u2063such \u2064as gold and commodities moved up, but not substantially. The U.S. dollar was flat, and Bitcoin fell. Even oil, perhaps the global commodity \u200dmost at risk, failed\u2062 to regain the highs seen only a few weeks before.<\/p>\n<p>The markets seem \u200dto be signaling that this \u2062will all blow over, that\u2063 cooler heads will prevail, that perhaps China will intervene diplomatically as \u2064it has\u200b successfully done recently in\u2063 the\u2062 region. In other words, the markets are\u2062 pricing for a best-case, \u201csoft landing\u201d scenario. This is a fantasy.<\/p>\n<p>Now is not the time to ignore\u2063 the warning signs. While events may not develop as \u2064severely or as rapidly as they did in 1914, the situation is unlikely to end quickly or easily. The odds are that this conflict expands, \u2062and that the world is thrown further \u200dinto turmoil.<\/p>\n<p>There appear to be very few \u200dinvestment safe havens in this\u2064 environment. Cash is certainly \u2063one, with short-term Treasurys \u2062now yielding\u200c above 5 percent. The United States \u200dis now committed to support both\u200c Ukraine and Israel, in addition \u200cto replenishing its own recently depleted armaments\u2064 inventories. While I hate to say it, defense industry\u200c stocks, up as much as 10 percent this week, should also continue to do well. And, if indeed the conflict widens, oil\u2064 will inevitably run.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever one\u2019s religious or political views, we should \u2064all heed the words of the psalmist and\u200b pray \u200dfor the peace \u200cof Jerusalem.<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\"><em>Views expressed in this article \u200dare opinions of the\u200c author and do not necessarily reflect the\u200d views of The Epoch Times.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p> <\/p>\n<h2>In what ways\u2064 can the United States and other major powers play a constructive role in resolving the conflict between Israel and Hamas, without risking a\u200d wider and \u2062more \u200ccatastrophic war<\/h2>\n<p><span>  Stern Mediterranean, a \u200dclear show of force in support\u200c of Israel.\u2062 These \u2064are just some\u200c of \u200cthe actions and reactions taking place in the wake of \u200dHamas&#8217;s attack \u200con Israel, and each step further escalates the risk\u200c of a wider, \u2062more devastating conflict.<\/p>\n<p>The\u2062 parallels between the events\u200c leading \u200bup to World War I and the current situation in the Middle East are striking. Just as the great powers\u2063 of\u200d Europe \u200csleepwalked into war in 1914, oblivious \u2062to the consequences of their actions, so too \u200care we witnessing\u2063 a\u2064 dangerous lack of awareness today. Each \u200bcountry involved in the \u2062current crisis perceives\u200c its actions as rational \u200dand\u200c proportionate, just as the European powers did a \u200bcentury ago. But the chain of events triggered by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand quickly spiraled\u2063 out of control, leading to unimaginable\u200b devastation. We must not allow history to repeat\u2063 itself.<\/p>\n<p>At the\u2064 heart of the current crisis is Iran&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/man-who-spent-14k-to-become-collie-goes-for-first-walk-in-public\/\" title=\"Man who spent k to transform into a collie takes first public stroll.\">long-standing desire<\/a>\u2062 to see\u200d the \u200bdestruction \u2064of Israel. \u2064Iran has actively worked to undermine \u200bthe \u200bemerging peace and normalization \u200bin the region,\u2062 supporting groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. With the lifting of\u2062 certain U.S. sanctions, Iran now has \u2064the financial means to \u200cfurther escalate \u2064tensions and act on its \u200bthreats. This poses a significant risk to\u200c the stability\u2062 of the region\u200c and the safety of \u2064Israel.<\/p>\n<p>While Iran plays a\u200d central role, other \u2062players \u200dare\u200b also contributing to the escalation. Syria has mobilized its \u200bforces in response \u2063to Israeli airstrikes, and rockets have been fired into\u2063 Israeli territory from \u200cboth Lebanon and Syria. Qatar, a \u2063key regional player, has \u200dopenly hosted Iranian officials and refused to distance\u2064 itself\u200b from Hamas. Even the \u2064United States is \u2064getting involved,\u2064 demonstrating\u200d its support for Israel by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-markets-are-underpricing-the-risks-of-1914\/\" title=\"Markets underestimate 1914 risks.\">deploying significant military assets<\/a> to the region.<\/p>\n<p>The danger we face is not limited to regional conflict. The interconnectivity of global politics means that\u200d any escalation in the Middle East has the potential \u2062to draw in major powers like the \u2064United States \u200band Iran. With each step up the escalation ladder,\u200b the risk of a wider, more devastating\u200c war increases. The consequences\u200d could be catastrophic, not just for the countries directly involved,\u2063 but for the entire \u2062world.<\/p>\n<p>We must learn from\u2062 history. We cannot<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 1914, the great powers were unaware they were heading towards disaster. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand triggered a series of national actions, setting Europe ablaze.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1828,"featured_media":2068612,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[543],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2068611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-epoch-times"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2068611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1828"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2068611"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2068611\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2068612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2068611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2068611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2068611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}