{"id":2054667,"date":"2023-10-04T00:42:02","date_gmt":"2023-10-04T04:42:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/world-bank-trims-east-asian-growth-for-2024-on-softer-trade-debt-risks\/"},"modified":"2023-10-04T00:46:41","modified_gmt":"2023-10-04T04:46:41","slug":"world-bank-trims-east-asian-growth-for-2024-on-softer-trade-debt-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/world-bank-trims-east-asian-growth-for-2024-on-softer-trade-debt-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"World Bank lowers East Asian growth forecast for 2024 due to trade and debt concerns."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fworld-bank-trims-east-asian-growth-for-2024-on-softer-trade-debt-risks%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2054667&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div data-post-content=\"true\" class=\"post_content\" id=\"post_content\">\n<p>Economic growth in East Asia\u200d and the Pacific is expected to be the weakest \u2064in\u2062 decades next year,\u2064 according to a new report from the World Bank.<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\">\n<p>In its <a href=\"https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/server\/api\/core\/bitstreams\/5620cb1a-0b68-4a83-91c1-d8d701910a7f\/content\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">semi-annual economic outlook<\/a> \u2063 for the region, the institution estimates that growth\u200b in developing\u2064 East Asia \u200dand the Pacific is projected to be 5 percent in 2023, higher than the average growth rate expected in other emerging \u200bmarkets and developing\u2062 economies but unchanged \u2062from the \u2064initial \u200destimate.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The regional\u2062 economy is then anticipated to slow\u200d to 4.5 \u200bpercent next year,\u2064 down from the April projection \u2064of 4.8 percent.<\/p>\n<div class=\"shortcode\">\n<div class=\"border-comp-divider mb-4 mr-4 w-full max-w-[500px] border px-5 py-4 text-[16px] leading-[20px] text-[#262626] md:float-left\" id=\"in_article_related_stories\">\n<h2 class=\"mb-3 font-sans text-[16px] font-semibold uppercase leading-[19px] text-[#2F2F2F]\">Related\u200c Stories<\/h2>\n<div class=\"mb-4 flex gap-2\">\n<div class=\"grow\">\n<div class=\"mb-1 line-clamp-2\">\n            <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/china\/world-bank-cuts-chinas-growth-forecast-as-property-crisis-deepens-5502566?ea_src=author_manual&#038;ea_med=related_stories\"><\/p>\n<h3>World\u200c Bank Cuts China&#8217;s Growth Forecast as Property Crisis Deepens<\/h3>\n<p>            <\/a>\n          <\/div>\n<div class=\"text-comp-caption text-[14px] leading-[18px]\">10\/2\/2023<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"shrink-0 basis-[120px]\">\n          <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/china\/world-bank-cuts-chinas-growth-forecast-as-property-crisis-deepens-5502566?ea_src=author_manual&#038;ea_med=related_stories\"><\/a>\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"mb-4 flex gap-2\">\n<div class=\"grow\">\n<div class=\"mb-1 line-clamp-2\">\n            <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/epochtv\/biden-tells-un-of-plans-to-commit-a-further-25-billion-to-the-world-bank-5494373?ea_src=author_manual&#038;ea_med=related_stories\"><\/p>\n<h3>Biden Tells UN of Plans to \u200cCommit a Further \u200d$25 Billion to the World\u2063 Bank<\/h3>\n<p>            <\/a>\n          <\/div>\n<div class=\"text-comp-caption text-[14px] leading-[18px]\">9\/19\/2023<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"shrink-0 basis-[120px]\">\n          <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/epochtv\/biden-tells-un-of-plans-to-commit-a-further-25-billion-to-the-world-bank-5494373?ea_src=author_manual&#038;ea_med=related_stories\"><\/a>\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Growth\u2064 in China \u200bis slated to \u200bbe 4.4 percent, driven by &#8220;persistent domestic difficulties&#8221; such as high debt, weakness in \u2064the property sectors, \u200band &#8220;structural factors.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>But\u2063 expansion \u200cin the \u2064rest of the region is estimated to be\u200d 4.7 percent in 2024 &#8220;as recovery in global \u2064growth and easing of financial conditions offsets the impact \u200bof slowing growth in \u2062China and\u200c trade policy measures in other\u200d countries.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe\u200b East Asia\u2064 and Pacific region remains one of the\u2063 fastest growing and\u2063 most dynamic regions in the world, even if growth is moderating,\u201d said World Bank East Asia and Pacific \u2062Vice President \u2063Manuela V. Ferro in the report.<\/p>\n<div class=\"shortcode post-related-videos\">\n<div class=\"lazyload-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"lazyload-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cOver the medium\u2064 term, sustaining \u2064high \u200cgrowth will require reforms to maintain industrial competitiveness, diversify trading partners, and unleash the productivity-enhancing\u2063 and \u2064job-creating potential of\u2062 the services\u200d sector.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, this forecast \u200bis a downgrade\u2063 from the previous estimates and is the slowest in five decades,\u2062 excluding the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s and the CCP\u200c (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic.<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\">\n<p>The World Bank fears that this outlook has downside risks, including more geopolitical tension and \u2063<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/flashback-hawaii-wildfires-caused-by-climate-change-media-said-before-we-learned-the-real-cause\/\" title=\"Hawaii Wildfires Initially Blamed on Climate Change, But Real Cause Revealed Later\">extreme weather \u200devents<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Threats to EAP Growth<\/h2>\n<p>Three\u2062 components \u2064leave the \u2062developing \u200bAsian economies\u200b vulnerable to sluggish growth: Softer global trade, industrial \u2062competitiveness, \u200dand growing debt.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Over the \u200dpast 12 months, exports have eased considerably from China, Indonesia,\u2063 Malaysia, and Vietnam.<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\">\n<p>In Beijing, for example, <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/china\/exports-yoy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">exports have fallen<\/a> for \u200csix of the past eight months, including a 14.3 percent decline in July.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>U.S. industrial and trade policies inside\u200d President Joe Biden&#8217;s Inflation Reduction \u200bAct and the CHIPS and \u200bScience Act\u200d have \u2063worsened \u200cconditions in this part of\u2064 the world.<\/p>\n<p>With\u200c the federal government showering domestic and \u2062foreign companies with hundreds of billions\u200d of \u200bdollars in subsidies like tax \u200ccredits and grants, businesses are bolstering operations \u200bin the United States by reshoring or nearshoring away from China.<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\">\n<p>Recent <a href=\"https:\/\/reshorenow.org\/content\/pdf\/2022_Data_Report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">data<\/a> by \u200bthe Reshoring Initiative found that\u200b U.S. companies are \u200don track to post a record number of hires in manufacturing, with approximately\u2063 360,000 positions.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;We encourage the\u2063 United States to become competitive \u200bon all tech \u200clevels to \u2064balance\u200b the \u200dtrade deficit and employ a broader range of workers,&#8221; the lobby\u200c group said.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the U.S. manufacturing sector remains in \u2063a recession, while \u200bChinese factory activity returned to expansion\u2064 territory in\u2063 September for the first time since\u2062 March.<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\">\n<p>That said, there\u200d is a contrast between\u200c the world\u2019s \u200ctwo \u200clargest economies,\u2063 as the United \u2062States is\u200c posting better headline data \u2064than China.<\/p>\n<h2>Corporate, Household \u2063Debt Up<\/h2>\n<p>Debt\u2014government, corporate, and household\u2014as a \u2063share\u200c of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/its-official-trump-crushes-record-for-largest-gdp-increase-in-us-history-3rd-quarter-gdp-up-33-1\/\" title=\"IT'S OFFICIAL: Trump Crushes Record for Largest GDP Increase in US History -- 3rd Quarter GDP Up 33.1%\">gross domestic product<\/a> has risen\u2063 exponentially over the past decade in many East \u2064Asian and \u2064Pacific countries, the\u200d World\u200d Bank&#8217;s\u200d report notes.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;Corporate debt too \u2062has\u200b increased significantly \u200din China and\u200b Vietnam by more \u200cthan 40 \u200dpercentage points of GDP since 2010,\u2062 and now exceeds the level in \u2063advanced economies,&#8221; the World Bank \u200bstates.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;And\u2064 household debt is \u200cnow\u200d significantly higher in China, Malaysia, \u2062and Thailand compared to levels in other\u200d emerging markets.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Toshiro Nishizawa, a professor at the University of Tokyo&#8217;s Graduate\u200b School of\u200c Public Policy, believes China is facing significant &#8220;debt distress&#8221; \u200bdue\u2062 to lending under the\u2064 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).<\/p>\n<p>While\u200b Beijing has\u2062 diminished its lending efforts \u200din recent years due to borrowers&#8217; challenges, it still\u2064 faces &#8220;the \u200brisk \u2064of \u2064being debt-trapped.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\">\n<p>&#8220;China should release itself at an early stage from the risk\u2063 of being debt-trapped,&#8221; \u200cMr. Nishizawa <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastasiaforum.org\/2023\/09\/19\/chinas-double-edged-debt-trap\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wrote<\/a> \u200c for \u200dthe East Asia\u200d Forum last\u2063 month. &#8220;Otherwise, \u2064it may \u200cmake the same\u200d mistake that Western\u2064 creditors made and eventually lose its\u2064 financial claims.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Federal Reserve policy\u2063 is another \u200cchallenge \u200dfor East Asian and Pacific states like Indonesia.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. central bank&#8217;s quantitative tightening has pushed up global \u2062bond yields and has applied\u200d pressure on the Indonesian \u2064rupiah, says Nichola Mapa, a senior economist at ING.<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\">\n<p>&#8220;A weaker currency could exacerbate imported inflation pressures which\u200d in turn \u200dcould dent household consumption \u2063should headline inflation accelerate past BI\u2019s inflation target,&#8221; wrote Mr. Mapa in a\u200d <a href=\"https:\/\/think.ing.com\/articles\/indonesia-sees-robust-growth-amid-external-challenges\/#a8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">research note<\/a> that cites Bank Indonesia (BI).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;A potential Fed \u2063rate hike could prompt \u2063BI to\u200b hike\u200b its own policy rates, which could sap even more momentum from flagging bank lending.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>A stronger\u2064 greenback has hurt\u2062 Asian currencies and economies, forcing businesses and \u200dconsumers \u200cto pay more for dollar-denominated commodities.<\/p>\n<div class=\"my-5\">\n<p>The U.S.\u2064 Dollar \u200bIndex (DXY),\u200c a measurement of the buck against \u2063a basket of currencies, has surged\u200c 3.3 percent so \u2063far this year.<\/p>\n<h2>Brief Look at Asian Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Asian \u2062financial markets have been mixed\u200d in 2023.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index is up 0.7 percent, while the Hang \u200bSeng Index has \u200cplunged more than 12 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Indonesia&#8217;s JSX Composite Index is \u200dup about 1 percent\u200d this year, and Singapore&#8217;s FTSE Straits Times Index has slumped by close to\u2062 2 percent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<h2>What \u200cis the impact of \u2062Covid \u200b19 pandemic to the\u200b tourism industry in\u200c the national capital region?<\/h2>\n<p><span>Travel restrictions, border controls and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/world-bank-trims-east-asian-growth-for-2024-on-softer-trade-debt-risks\/\" title=\"World Bank lowers East Asian growth forecast for 2024 due to trade and debt concerns.\">stringent community lockdowns imposed<\/a> by\u200b the government as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic have halted \u200bthe \u200dgrowth of the country&#8217;s tourism industry. After \u206211\u200b years of consecutive growth, the tourism direct\u2064 value added (TDGVA) declined by 61.2% to P973. , Victoria Kwakwa. \u201cHowever, the COVID-19 pandemic\u200b has exposed vulnerabilities \u200bin the region\u2019s \u200ceconomies, including its heavy reliance on external demand, the impact of declining tourism and\u200b travel, and the need for \u2064investment \u200cin human capital and resilience to climate \u2063change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The report highlights several key challenges\u2063 that the region is \u200cfacing.\u200d One of the major challenges is the high levels of debt in some countries, particularly in China, \u2064which is a result of increased borrowing to stimulate economic growth. This high debt level poses a risk to the stability of the financial system and could potentially \u2064lead to a financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to the debt issue, the\u200d region \u2062is also grappling with weakness in the property sectors, which is a\u200b significant contributor \u2064to China&#8217;s sluggish growth. The property sector has \u200dbeen facing challenges such as oversupply, tightening regulations, and\u2064 a slowdown in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/sydney-office-block-sold-at-16-discount-as-rates-remote-working-hit-sector\/\" title=\"Sydney office block sold at 16% discount due to rates and remote working impact.\">real estate \u2063market<\/a>. These\u2064 issues have dampened investment and consumer \u200cspending in the sector, leading to a decline in economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the report emphasizes the impact of\u200d structural factors on the\u200d region&#8217;s growth. \u2063These structural factors include an aging population, lack of innovation, \u200cand\u2062 limited technology adoption. These factors hinder productivity growth and limit the region&#8217;s potential\u200d for economic expansion.<\/p>\n<p>Despite \u2062these challenges, the report suggests that there\u2062 are opportunities for the region to\u2062 maintain strong growth. The recovery in \u200cglobal growth and\u200d easing of financial conditions are expected \u2062to offset the impact of slowing growth in China and trade policy measures in other countries. The region&#8217;s strong domestic\u200c demand, particularly in countries such as Vietnam and\u2062 the Philippines, as well as continued \u2062investment in infrastructure and human capital development, can also contribute to sustained\u200b economic growth\u200c in\u200d the region.<\/p>\n<p>To address the challenges and seize\u200c the\u2062 opportunities, the report suggests that policymakers in the\u2063 region should \u2063prioritize \u2062structural reforms to\u200c enhance productivity and innovation. This includes investing in research and development, promoting entrepreneurship and innovation, and improving\u200b the business environment to attract investments. Additionally, there \u2064is a \u2062need for continued investment\u200c in education and skills development to\u200c equip the workforce with the necessary skills for the future.<\/p>\n<p>In conclusion, while\u2063 economic growth in East Asia\u200c and \u2064the Pacific is expected to be the weakest in decades next year, there are opportunities for the region to maintain strong growth. Addressing the\u2064 challenges \u2063and implementing necessary reforms will be crucial for the region to\u2063 navigate the \u2064current economic environment and ensure sustained and inclusive growth in the future.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economic growth in East Asia and the Pacific is predicted to be the weakest in decades, with a projected 5% growth in 2023, according to the World Bank&#8217;s latest report. This forecast reflects the region&#8217;s challenging economic conditions, as outlined in the institution&#8217;s semi-annual economic outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":278,"featured_media":2054668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[543],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2054667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-epoch-times"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2054667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/278"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2054667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2054667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2054668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2054667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2054667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2054667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}