{"id":2030756,"date":"2023-09-13T15:30:02","date_gmt":"2023-09-13T19:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/recession-risk-is-a-coin-flip-over-the-next-year-investment-firm-says\/"},"modified":"2023-09-13T15:32:10","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T19:32:10","slug":"recession-risk-is-a-coin-flip-over-the-next-year-investment-firm-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/recession-risk-is-a-coin-flip-over-the-next-year-investment-firm-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Investment firm predicts 50\/50 chance of recession in the next year."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Frecession-risk-is-a-coin-flip-over-the-next-year-investment-firm-says%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2030756&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><h2>The Risk of Global Recession is Close to a &#8220;Coin Flip&#8221;, Says PIMCO<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<div>\n<figure><figcaption>(Chip \u200bSomodevilla\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div>\n<p>The risk of a global recession over the next 12 to 18 months is close to a &#8220;coin flip&#8221; and financial markets are underestimating the chances of one in the United States, executives at\u200b bond giant PIMCO said on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We&#8217;ve become a bit more constructive, given \u200bthe better economic numbers,&#8221; <strong>Daniel Ivascyn<\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/recession-risk-is-a-coin-flip-over-the-next-year-investment-firm-says\/\" title=\"Investment firm predicts 50\/50 chance of recession in the next year.\">group chief \u200dinvestment officer<\/a> at the $1.79\u2064 trillion asset manager told a media event in London.<\/p>\n<p>He was \u200creferring to strong data prints in the \u200bUnited States recently which have prompted markets to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-didnt-get-the-reaction-to-their-propagandistic-jan-6-presentation-they-hoped-for\/\" title=\"Democrats Didn't Get the Reaction to Their Propagandistic Jan 6 Presentation They Hoped for\">scale back expectations<\/a> for rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve over the next 12 months.<\/p>\n<p>Ivascyn said \u200dPIMCO is the most interested it has \u2062been in interest rate exposure in years, and has also been adding to\u200b its\u2062 position in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/bloomberg-article-advises-americans-to-spend-their-paychecks-quickly-take-out-loans-to-deal-with-inflation\/\" title=\"Bloomberg Article Advises Americans To Spend Their Paychecks Quickly, Take Out Loans To Deal With Inflation\">inflation-linked bonds<\/a>. Deficit and debt levels were a concern, he \u200badded.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking at the same event, <strong>Richard Clarida<\/strong>, former Fed vice\u200b chair and a global economic advisor to PIMCO, said the odds of a moderate U.S. recession are \u200chigher than markets are pricing in.<\/p>\n<p>In Europe, the asset\u200c manager expects a rate \u2062hike at\u2064 Thursday&#8217;s \u200cEuropean central bank meeting and next week \u2064from the Bank of England, with the latter&#8217;s November decision more uncertain.<\/p>\n<p>On China, \u200cwhere slowing demand and a deepening property crisis \u200chave exacerbated economic slowdown, portfolio manager <strong>Pramol Dhawan<\/strong> said PIMCO \u200bwas\u2062 looking for additional stimulus to support the economy and had\u200d not yet seen a &#8220;credible solution.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Stimulus measures so far were &#8220;nothing really with a big bang effect to get the economy going,&#8221; he added.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing has rolled out a series of support measures but investors have \u2063so far\u200b been\u2063 disappointed. PIMCO expects more rate cuts and liquidity injections to \u2062follow.<\/p>\n<p>Dhawan added that U.S.-China tensions were also denting investor appetite for Chinese stocks.\u200c Data on Wednesday showed non-residents withdrew nearly\u200d $15 billion from the sector in August, the largest monthly outflow on record.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I think that only\u2064 continues in that direction while these sort of elevated tensions between the U.S. and China continue,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere in Asia, portfolio manager\u2063 <strong>Stephen Chang<\/strong> said the \u2064Japanese yen has\u2062 been &#8220;very weak&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>The yen has dropped over 12 percent against the U.S. dollar this year with the Bank of Japan remaining \u2064the holdout as peers tighten monetary policy to fight high inflation. But policymakers are increasingly talking up the need\u200c to \u200dexit accommodative monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;By late Q4 and early\u2062 next year, we\u2062 think there is\u2062 an intention from the new \u200dgovernor to get rid of yield curve control and once that is done the next step is normalising monetary policy,&#8221; Chang said.<\/p>\n<p>(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe and Chiara Elisei, writing by Yoruk Bahceli; editing by Angus MacSwan)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Executives at PIMCO warn that there is a 50% chance of a global recession in the next 12-18 months. They believe financial markets are not adequately considering the possibility of a recession in the United States. However, recent positive economic data has made them slightly more optimistic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":2030757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[544],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2030756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-free-beacon"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2030756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/66"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2030756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2030756\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2030757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2030756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2030756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2030756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}