{"id":2019416,"date":"2023-09-01T14:16:02","date_gmt":"2023-09-01T18:16:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/august-jobs-prints-at-187000-new-jobs-but-another-110000-downward-revisions\/"},"modified":"2023-09-01T14:17:26","modified_gmt":"2023-09-01T18:17:26","slug":"august-jobs-prints-at-187000-new-jobs-but-another-110000-downward-revisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/august-jobs-prints-at-187000-new-jobs-but-another-110000-downward-revisions\/","title":{"rendered":"August job growth came in at 187,000 new jobs, but there were also 110,000 downward revisions."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">32<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Faugust-jobs-prints-at-187000-new-jobs-but-another-110000-downward-revisions%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2019416&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><blockquote><p>\n<em>[Note: If you wish to skip detailed analysis and data support, simply scroll down to &#8220;Opinion and Outlook&#8221; and &#8220;GDP Prognostication.&#8221;]<\/em>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>The August Jobs Report: Revisions and Insights<\/h2>\n<p>The August jobs report was \u2064released this morning, showing 187,000 new \u2064jobs, \u200bthe same\u2064 as July&#8217;s initial figure. However, the July number was revised down by 30,000, continuing the trend of significant downward revisions in recent months. In fact, the revisions for \u200bJune and July combined resulted in \u2062a \u200cdecrease of 110,000 jobs. The June \u2062report also had a massive downward revision of 110,000\u200b for April and May. Additionally, the revised\u200b July numbers brought down the May and June figures by another 49,000.<\/p>\n<p>But let&#8217;s dive into the \u2063exclusive \u200bschedule of August\u200b and July Jobs Creation by Average Weekly Wages.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/img.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/09\/01\/id5484879-Screenshot-63.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"shortcode\">\n<div class=\"border-comp-divider mb-4 mr-4 w-full max-w-[500px] border px-5 py-4 text-[16px] leading-[20px] text-[#262626] md:float-left\">\n<div class=\"mb-3 font-sans text-[16px] font-semibold uppercase leading-[19px] text-[#2F2F2F]\">Related Stories<\/div>\n<div class=\"mb-4 flex gap-2\">\n<div class=\"grow\">\n<div class=\"mb-1 line-clamp-2\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/article\/large-number-of-job-openings-may-lead-to-rate-hike-5306248\">Large Number of Job Openings \u200bMay Lead \u2063to Rate Hike<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"text-comp-caption text-[14px] leading-[18px]\">6\/1\/2023<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"shrink-0 basis-[120px]\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/article\/large-number-of-job-openings-may-lead-to-rate-hike-5306248\"><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"mb-4 flex gap-2\">\n<div class=\"grow\">\n<div class=\"mb-1 line-clamp-2\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/us\/rep-bob-good-says-april-jobs-numbers-wont-fix-inflation-government-spending-5245853\">Rep. Bob\u2063 Good Says April\u200b Jobs Numbers Won\u2019t Fix Inflation, Government \u2062Spending<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"text-comp-caption text-[14px] leading-[18px]\">5\/5\/2023<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"shrink-0 basis-[120px]\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/us\/rep-bob-good-says-april-jobs-numbers-wont-fix-inflation-government-spending-5245853\"><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>(Source: &#8220;August \u200band July Jobs Creation by Average Weekly Wages\u200c by Sector&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/\">The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy 2023<\/a>, used\u200d by \u200bpermission)<\/p>\n<p>In terms\u200b of job growth, we\u2064 continue to see \u2063most of it in government-supported and subsidized sectors like \u200deducation and health\u200c services, which are \u200bless affected by\u2063 economic cycles. On the other hand, more cyclical sectors such as\u200d transportation, warehousing,\u200c information services, and professional \u200band business services have shown declines or sluggish growth. Temporary help\u200c services, which are usually a minor factor in job creation, have lost an average of \u206426,000\u2063 jobs each month for\u2062 the past three\u200b months. This decline in temporary help services often serves\u200c as an early indicator \u2063of an economic slowdown.<\/p>\n<p>The unemployment\u200b rate rose by \u200d0.3 percentage point to 3.8 percent in August, with 514,000 \u200bmore people becoming unemployed, bringing the total \u200cto\u200c 6.4 million. When considering real\u2063 wages adjusted for inflation, the aggregate increase was a \u200bmere 1.05 percent, calculated after accounting for the \u200dJuly trimmed mean inflation rate of 4.1 percent. A detailed breakdown by sector will be provided in our next report.<\/p>\n<h3><b>Other Data Points<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Institute for Supply \u200dManagement&#8217;s Manufactuer&#8217;s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) \u200dfor August, released \u2062this morning, showed the industrial economy is contracting, but at a slower \u200dpace\u200d compared to last month. The index stood at 47.6, slightly higher than July&#8217;s 46.4. (A reading below 50 signals contraction.) On the \u200dother hand, the ISM Services Index for\u2064 July, the latest\u200c available, indicated expansion in the\u200b service economy, albeit at a slower rate, with a reading of\u2063 52.7 compared to June&#8217;s 53.9. (The\u2062 August Services report \u2062will be\u2064 released on Sept. 6.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Job\u2062 Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u200d (JOLTS) for July, reported\u2063 on Aug. 29, continued its decline, revealing 338,000 fewer job openings compared to\u200c June, along with 253,000 \u200bfewer \u2063separations. This ongoing decline \u2062in \u2063job openings \u2064is evident \u2064in the chart below, showing \u200ba significant drop from the peak of 12,027,000 in March\u2063 2022 to 8,827,000 in July 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-left:0;margin-right:0;max-width:1200px\">\n<figure style=\"width:1642px;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto\" class=\"aligncenter\"><figcaption>(Source: &#8220;JOLTS Jobs Openings Since July 2018 to July \u200b2023&#8221; \u2062\/ Federal Reserve\u200d Bank of St. Louis)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>We believe that the long-anticipated\u200d recession has impacted hiring practices, resulting in fewer job \u200dopenings. Consequently, the predicted recession, which\u200b would typically lead to layoffs, might \u200dinstead result in a so-called &#8220;soft landing.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Building permits in July<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, \u200dreleased on Aug. 16, were at a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/housing-starts-increase-as-housing-market-sends-mixed-signals\/\" title=\"Housing starts rise amidst conflicting housing market signals.\">seasonally adjusted annual \u200drate<\/a> of\u200c 1,442,000. This represents a 0.1 percent increase\u200c from the revised\u2062 June\u200b rate \u2063of 1,441,000 but\u200c is 13.0 percent lower than the July 2022 rate<\/span><\/p>\n<p>of 1,658,000.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Privately owned housing starts in July were at a \u200c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/report-home-prices-are-up-nearly-25-since-this-time-last-year\/\" title=\"Report: Home Prices Are Up Nearly 25% Since This Time Last Year\">seasonally adjusted annual rate<\/a> of 1,452,000. This is 3.9 percent<\/span><\/p>\n<p>(\u00b116.0 percent) higher than the revised June estimate \u2062of\u200b 1,398,000 and 5.9 percent (\u00b116.1 percent) higher than the July<\/p>\n<p>2022 rate of 1,371,000.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For\u200b July<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, personal income and\u2064 outlays, released on Aug. 31, showed that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/august-jobs-prints-at-187000-new-jobs-but-another-110000-downward-revisions\/\" title=\"August job growth came in at 187,000 new jobs, but there were also 110,000 downward revisions.\">disposable personal income remained unchanged<\/a>\u2064 in current dollars and decreased by -0.2\u200d percent \u2064in chained 2012 dollars. (&#8220;Chained dollars&#8221; is a\u2062 measure of inflation that considers changes in consumer behavior\u200c in response to price changes.) Personal income in current dollars increased by 0.2 percent. Since January 2021, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">real \u2062disposable personal income per capita has declined by\u200d over $3,000 due to inflation and economic factors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The July Personal \u200cConsumption Expenditures (PCE) Index (excluding food and energy), released \u200con Aug. 31, is reported to be \u2063the Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred measure of inflation. It showed a slight\u2063 increase to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent. The PCE inflation,\u2064 also known as &#8220;headline inflation,&#8221; stood at \u200c3.3 percent, up from June&#8217;s 3.0 percent. This spike could indicate \u200bthe possibility of further \u200crate\u200d increases by\u2062 the Fed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IBD\/TIPP Economic \u200cOptimism \u200cIndex for\u2062 August, released\u2063 on Aug. 8,\u200d fell by 2.4 \u200dpercent to 40.3. A reading\u200c below 50 indicates pessimism.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Opinion and Outlook<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Trustworthy Numbers?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>I&#8217;m deeply concerned \u200dabout the significant downward\u200c revisions in\u2063 jobs data, with two consecutive months\u200d seeing revisions in the \u200csix-figure range. This\u2063 should be a matter of concern for Congress as well. It raises questions about the \u2063accuracy and reliability of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. In our \u2064view,\u200b these substantial \u200doverstatements of jobs creation may be part of President Joe\u200d Biden&#8217;s reelection campaign&#8217;s efforts to portray &#8220;Bidenomics&#8221; in a\u200b positive light. While\u200b Friday jobs reports often make headlines and impact markets, the \u200crevisions, which are typically much smaller, tend to receive \u200cless attention.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s worth recalling that in October \u20622012, General Electric CEO\u200b Jack \u2062Welch raised allegations of manipulation in BLS jobs data, claiming \u200dthey were\u200c made to appear better than they\u2063 actually were. The September 2012 Jobs Report, released just before the November elections when Barack Obama faced Mitt Romney, held significant\u200d influence. Welch \u2062faced criticism from the media \u200dfor his claims, with reminders that BLS statisticians \u2064are career\u200c public\u2062 employees who \u2062are supposed \u200cto be above political influence.<\/p>\n<p>However, it later emerged that Welch&#8217;s suspicions were not unfounded.\u200b A U.S. Census employee \u2064had indeed falsified data \u2064for the Household survey, which was used to calculate the unemployment rate. Furthermore,\u2063 <em>New\u200d York Post<\/em> business columnist John Crudele reported\u2062 that &#8220;a knowledgeable source says the deception \u2064went beyond \u200cthat \u2062one employee\u2014that it escalated \u2062at the time President \u200cObama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues \u2062today.&#8221; Crudele provided his \u200dsource and supporting evidence to the Labor\u200b Department&#8217;s inspector general, but \u200dreported \u200bthat\u2064 his calls went unanswered. The establishment media then criticized Crudele \u200cfor what they deemed a\u2064 &#8220;reckless&#8221;\u2064 story.<\/p>\n<p>Given these prior claims from the current administration, it is reasonable to approach\u200c the jobs data with caution.<\/p>\n<p>That being \u200bsaid, \u2062with the latest\u2062 revisions, the average\u2062 three-month \u2062jobs creation stands at 150,000 new jobs. While not bad, it falls within \u2064the range typically considered necessary \u200bto accommodate population growth.<\/p>\n<p>More concerning is the slowdown in jobs creation indicated by the JOLTS\u2062 report and the overall economic slowdown reflected in\u200c the ISM Manufacturing Index. The pace of growth is certainly decelerating, but at a moderate rate. As shown in the JOLTS chart above, we\u200d may\u2064 be heading \u2064towards<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The August jobs report showed 187,000 new jobs, same as July&#8217;s initial figure. However, July&#8217;s number was revised down by 30,000 in the release.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1367,"featured_media":2019417,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[543],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2019416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-epoch-times"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2019416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1367"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2019416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2019416\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2019417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2019416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2019416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2019416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}